The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers share the lead in the Super Bowl LXI market, with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs close behind.
Football
By Chris Old
Four weeks have changed the shape of the Super Bowl race. The Rams opened the season as clear favorites, but their 2–2 record has brought them back toward a group that includes two unbeaten teams.
The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are both 4–0. The defending champion Seattle Seahawks are 3–1. So are the Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Los Angeles Rams remain a serious contender after coming back to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4, but there is no longer much distance between the leading names.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Market data as of October 9, 2026. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.
The Rams still have the roster that made them preseason favorites. The 49ers have the better start. Buffalo has Josh Allen and a 3–1 record, while Kansas City has answered the immediate question about how its offense would look with Patrick Mahomes back on the field.
None of those cases is overwhelming. A 14% market-implied probability places a team at the front of the field without making its route through the regular season and playoffs straightforward. For a broader view of how the division races affect that route, see our 2026 NFL season outlook.
Who will win Super Bowl LXI?
The Rams and 49ers currently make the strongest pair of NFC cases, though for different reasons. Los Angeles has an offense led by Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, plus an upgraded defense featuring Myles Garrett. San Francisco has started 4–0 behind Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and a defense that helped contain Denver in Week 4.
The AFC looks just as competitive. Buffalo and Kansas City sit together in the championship market, while Baltimore and Jacksonville are prominent in the separate conference market. The Bills have already lost to the New England Patriots; the Chiefs have found ways to win all four of their games.
For now, the most honest prediction is a narrow one: the Rams and 49ers lead, but the first month has supplied little reason to treat either as a clear Super Bowl pick.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ 2–2 record needs context. Their Week 4 win in Philadelphia required a fourth-quarter comeback after mistakes by Stafford and on special teams had left them 10 points behind. Nacua finished with nine catches for 125 yards. Los Angeles showed it could recover within a game; it has yet to play consistently enough to separate itself from the field.
The football case remains substantial. Stafford can still distribute the ball to Nacua and Davante Adams, and Garrett gives the pass rush a way to reach quarterbacks without asking the secondary to survive constant blitzes. That combination should travel well into the postseason.
The next question is whether the Rams can turn those individual strengths into cleaner games. Their NFC West race also includes the unbeaten 49ers and the defending champion Seahawks. A strong record may still leave one of those teams with a difficult playoff route.
San Francisco 49ers
Four wins have carried the 49ers alongside the Rams in the championship market. Their victory over Denver was particularly useful evidence: San Francisco had to work through a difficult first half before Purdy, McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle helped the offense take control.
The familiarity of that group is part of the appeal. The 49ers know how to build an offense around McCaffrey without asking Purdy to win every drive through obvious passing situations. Their defense also produced its strongest showing since the opener against the Broncos.
A 4–0 start does not settle the NFC West. It does change the burden of proof. San Francisco has already shown that its established core can win while a game is uncomfortable, and the market now prices its Super Bowl path almost identically to the Rams’.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are 3–1, and their championship case still begins with Allen. James Cook gives the offense a powerful rushing option, while the move from offensive coordinator to head coach means Joe Brady already knows the quarterback and much of the system around him.
The loss to New England exposed the work still to do. Buffalo allowed too many big plays and could not finish the game, giving an AFC East rival an early win in a race that may influence playoff seeding.
That result has not pushed the Bills far from the top. In the AFC Champion 2026-2027 market, they currently lead at 21%, just ahead of Kansas City at 20%. The market still respects Allen’s ceiling while leaving plenty of room for the defense and the rest of the division to shape Buffalo’s season.
Kansas City Chiefs
A 4–0 start has brought Kansas City back into the leading championship group after last season’s 6–11 finish. The Chiefs were pushed hard by the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4 and still found the plays they needed late.
Mahomes and Andy Reid remain the central reason to take that start seriously. Kenneth Walker III has added another option in the backfield, and the offense has shown it can respond when a game becomes tight rather than relying on an early lead.
The Chiefs share a division with Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers, so their AFC West outlook extends well beyond four wins. Yet the opening month has answered the most immediate concern: Kansas City looks capable of competing at the top of the conference again.
AFC or NFC: Which conference has the stronger Super Bowl field?
The NFC champion market places the Rams at 22%, the 49ers at 21% and the Seahawks at 17%. Three of its leading teams share the NFC West. Chicago is also 3–1 and appears at 11% in that market.
The AFC champion market is similarly close near the top: Buffalo leads at 21%, Kansas City follows at 20%, Baltimore is at 18% and Jacksonville at 14%.
There is no simple answer to which conference is stronger. The NFC West could make the regular-season route especially demanding for its contenders. The AFC has several proven or emerging quarterback-led teams capable of changing the playoff picture. Our NFL playoff guide explains how division titles, wild cards and seeding determine the routes those teams eventually face.
Stafford, Allen, Purdy and Mahomes give the current market leaders high-end quarterback play. Protecting them is just as consequential. A line that allows pressure through the middle can disrupt a passing game before its receivers have time to reach their routes.
Availability can change the picture even faster. Baltimore’s concern over Jackson is a reminder that a team’s championship outlook can shift without anything else about its roster changing.
Pass rush without constant blitzing
The Rams’ acquisition of Garrett was significant because four defenders who can create pressure leave more players available in coverage. Seattle’s championship run showed how difficult a disruptive defensive front can make life for an opposing quarterback.
There are different ways to build that pressure. The relevant question in January is whether a defense can keep reaching the passer when it faces an offense capable of punishing predictable calls. Our guide to football positions explains the roles of edge rushers, interior linemen and the defenders working behind them.
Division results and playoff seeding
The Rams, 49ers and Seahawks will take wins from one another. Buffalo’s loss to New England has already changed the early AFC East picture. Kansas City still has its AFC West games ahead.
Those results determine more than a division table. Winning a division can bring a home playoff game, while the top seed in each conference earns a first-round bye. Our NFL rules guide covers the postseason structure for readers following it for the first time.
When is Super Bowl LXI?
Super Bowl LXI is scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027, in Inglewood, California. It will decide the champion of the 2026 NFL season.
What could move Super Bowl odds during the season?
The first four weeks have already moved the market from one clear preseason leader to four teams within a percentage point. The next shifts could come from quarterback health, protection, division games and whether the unbeaten 49ers and Chiefs maintain their starts.
The Rams have shown they can recover from a poor stretch within a game. Now they need to do it across the season. Seattle and San Francisco will test that path directly in the NFC West, while Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore and Jacksonville continue to shape the AFC race.
The NFL Champion 2026-2027 market gives the current hierarchy. Its leading figure is 14%. There is still a long way from being a favorite in October to winning in February.
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