Who will win Super Bowl LXI? Predictions and odds

One year ago, the Seattle Seahawks were still trying to prove they belonged among the NFL's best teams.

Now everybody is trying to take their trophy.

Seattle beat the New England Patriots to win Super Bowl LX, completing a 15-win regular season and postseason run built around Mike Macdonald's defense, Sam Darnold at quarterback and Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks begin their title defense with much of that core intact.

Yet they are not the favorites to win Super Bowl LXI.

That distinction belongs to the Los Angeles Rams, who came within one game of the Super Bowl last season before responding with one of the league's most aggressive offseasons. Reigning MVP Matthew Stafford returns to an offense that led the NFL in scoring, while Myles Garrett has joined a defense already capable of generating pressure.

Then comes the AFC.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are adjusting to a new head coach. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are doing the same. Patrick Mahomes is back at full speed after the knee injury that ended Kansas City's 2025 season, while the Patriots have added A.J. Brown to an offense led by MVP runner-up Drake Maye.

There is a favorite but there is nothing close to a certainty.

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Super Bowl LXI prediction and odds

Prediction markets currently make the Los Angeles Rams the leading contender to win Super Bowl LXI at 18%.

• Los Angeles Rams — 18%
• Buffalo Bills — 10%
• Baltimore Ravens — 9%
• Seattle Seahawks — 8%

Market data as of August 28, 2026. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.

The Rams are clear favorites without being dominant.

Eighteen percent means prediction markets currently give Los Angeles slightly better than a one-in-six chance of winning the Super Bowl. The other side of that number is more revealing: there is still an 82% probability attached to every other possible outcome.

That makes sense in the NFL.

Even an elite roster has to survive a 17-game regular season before navigating a single-elimination postseason where one bad quarter, one injury or one outstanding opposing quarterback can end the year.

The current market therefore gives us a hierarchy rather than a foregone conclusion.

Our guide to how football prediction markets work explains how these market-implied probabilities are derived and why they can move throughout the season.

For a wider look at all eight divisions, the conference races and the teams most likely to reach January, see our NFL predictions 2026: Divisions, playoffs and season outlook.

Who will win Super Bowl LXI?

The Rams have the strongest case before the regular season begins.

They also have enough meaningful competition that this does not resemble a one-team title race.

The Rams combine an MVP quarterback, an established offensive system and a defensive front that now contains one of the most disruptive players in football. The Bills and Ravens have quarterbacks capable of taking over postseason games themselves. The Seahawks have already proved their formula works in January.

Kansas City is harder to place after a 6–11 season, but dismissing a healthy Mahomes would require ignoring much of what preceded it.

The Patriots are no longer a surprise team either. They reached the Super Bowl last season and have since strengthened the group around Maye.

The most interesting question is therefore not whether there are alternatives to Los Angeles.

There are plenty.

It is whether any of them begin the season with a more complete combination of quarterback play, coaching, pass rush, coverage and offensive weapons than the Rams.

Los Angeles Rams — 18%

The Rams did not respond to losing the NFC Championship Game by tinkering around the edges.

They traded for Garrett.

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year set an NFL single-season record with 23 sacks last year and now joins a front that already includes Byron Young, Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske. Los Angeles did give up Jared Verse as part of the deal, but Garrett changes what defensive coordinator Chris Shula can ask the entire unit to do.

Pressure is particularly valuable when it comes without sending extra defenders.

If Garrett and the Rams' front can consistently disturb quarterbacks with four rushers, Shula can keep more bodies in coverage behind them. That becomes even more valuable in January, when the quarterbacks on the other side tend to punish predictable blitzes.

Los Angeles also strengthened the secondary with Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.

Then there is Stafford.

He returns after throwing for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns during an MVP season, with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams still providing elite receiving options. Our football statistics guide explains passing yards, passer rating, yards after catch and other common NFL measures in more detail.

Age and health remain the obvious concerns around Stafford, while several prominent additions still have to fit together rather than simply look impressive on a roster sheet.

But there are fewer obvious weaknesses here than on most contenders.

That's why the Rams start at 16%.

Buffalo Bills — 10%

Buffalo's Super Bowl case still begins with Josh Allen.

The difference this year is the organization around him.

Joe Brady has moved from offensive coordinator to head coach following Sean McDermott's departure, while Jim Leonhard takes responsibility for a defense that needs to hold up better against the strongest AFC opponents.

The transition comes after a 12–5 season that ended in the Divisional Round and broke Buffalo's run of five consecutive AFC East titles.

Offensively, Brady already knows exactly what Allen can do.

DJ Moore gives the Bills another established receiver and should make it harder for defenses to concentrate coverage around the shorter areas of the passing game. James Cook is coming off a league-leading rushing season, giving Buffalo another route when opponents devote extra attention to Allen.

The uncertainty is defensive.

The Bills have repeatedly been good enough to reach January. Turning that into a Super Bowl appearance has proved much harder.

A new defensive structure under Leonhard may eventually help.

It also has to work quickly enough that Allen's best football is not again spent trying to overcome problems elsewhere.

Baltimore Ravens — 9%

The Ravens are another contender undergoing significant change without rebuilding the roster.

John Harbaugh's 18-year tenure is over.

Jesse Minter takes charge with Jackson, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman still forming the core of an offense that has more than enough individual talent to challenge anybody.

The defensive changes may matter even more.

Baltimore finished only 18th in points allowed last season, an unusual weakness for a franchise accustomed to building around defense. Trey Hendrickson has joined the pass rush, Calais Campbell has returned and Nnamdi Madubuike could provide another major lift after his neck injury disrupted the defensive front in 2025.

Minter was hired partly because of what he can do with that talent.

Jackson provides the other half of the argument.

The Ravens do not need him to become more spectacular. They need the wider team to ensure January games are not repeatedly reduced to how much the quarterback can rescue.

If the defense returns to something closer to its traditional standard, the Ravens become difficult to dismiss.

Seattle Seahawks — 8%

The Seahawks have something none of the other contenders possess.

Proof.

The Seahawks won Super Bowl LX by overwhelming New England with a defense that repeatedly disrupted Maye and never allowed the Patriots to settle into the game. Macdonald had taken Seattle from outside the playoffs to champion in only two seasons.

Much of the defensive core remains.

Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy anchor the front, while Devon Witherspoon, Nick Emmanwori and Julian Love give Macdonald considerable flexibility behind them.

The bigger changes are on offense.

Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has left, while Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III moved to Kansas City. Darnold and Smith-Njigba remain, but the Seahawks now have to adapt a championship offense without two important pieces of the formula that got them there.

That is why the Seahawks can simultaneously be defending champions and third in the current Super Bowl market.

Nobody needs to imagine what their best football looks like.

The question is whether they can reproduce it.

Which other teams could reach Super Bowl LXI?

The market becomes crowded very quickly below the four leaders.

Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the obvious team that nobody should be comfortable writing off.

The Chiefs went 6–11 last season and missed the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era. Mahomes tore his ACL late in the year, creating legitimate uncertainty over what he would look like when football resumed.

That question has eased considerably.

Mahomes was fully cleared for training camp, and reports from Kansas City have described him moving and practicing without obvious limitations from the injury.

Kenneth Walker III also gives the offense a different element after arriving from Seattle.

There are issues elsewhere, including changes in the secondary and uncertainty along parts of the offensive line.

But the Chiefs still have Andy Reid and a healthy Mahomes.

Until the regular season shows otherwise, that combination remains relevant.

New England Patriots

The Patriots have already crossed the line between interesting young team and proven contender.

They went 14–3 last season and reached Super Bowl LX behind a breakout year from Maye, who finished second in MVP voting.

They then gave him A.J. Brown.

Brown joins Romeo Doubs in a receiving group that is much deeper than the one Maye carried through last season, and the early signs from training camp suggest the quarterback is not treating the Super Bowl run as the end of the project.

The challenge is doing it again when nobody is surprised.

Seattle exposed New England's protection in the Super Bowl, sacking Maye six times. Opponents now have an entire offseason of tape from a 17-game season and playoff run to study.

The Patriots are stronger on paper.

They may also find the road considerably less forgiving.

Denver Broncos

Denver went 14–3 and reached the AFC Championship Game last season despite losing Bo Nix to a broken ankle during the playoffs.

Nix is expected back, and the Broncos have added Jaylen Waddle alongside Courtland Sutton to give him another high-end receiver.

The question is how much of last year's success carries over after changes to the offensive coaching setup.

There is also the small matter of their division.

Kansas City, the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver all enter with legitimate playoff expectations, making the AFC West one of the hardest environments in which to secure favorable postseason seeding.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are only two seasons removed from winning the Super Bowl and still retain much of the talent that made that possible.

The concern is an offense that became increasingly predictable last year.

Jalen Hurts is working with another new offensive coordinator after Philadelphia finished 23rd in passing yards and scored 20 points or fewer in 10 games. Longtime offensive-line coach Jeff Stoutland has also departed, while Brown is now in New England.

Hurts, Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith still give the Eagles enough talent to punish any defense.

The challenge is making the offense difficult to solve again.

AFC or NFC: Which conference has the stronger Super Bowl field?

The AFC has more teams packed closely together.

The NFC has the strongest individual favorite.

That distinction helps explain why the Rams sit clear at the top of the overall market.

Prediction markets currently put Los Angeles at 25% to win the NFC, ahead of Seattle at 15%. Buffalo leads the AFC at only 16%, closely followed by Baltimore and Kansas City.

Those conference prices underline how much more fragmented the path looks on the AFC side.

For the Rams, winning the NFC is still difficult.

For an AFC contender, simply reaching the conference championship could require surviving several teams carrying legitimate Super Bowl expectations.

That could change rapidly once the season begins.

For now, the market sees a clearer leading candidate in the NFC than it does in the AFC.

What could decide the Super Bowl LXI race?

Quarterback health

The cliché exists for a reason.

Stafford is 38. Mahomes is returning from major knee surgery. Nix is returning from a broken ankle. Joe Burrow missed much of last season.

An injury to an elite quarterback does more than weaken one position. It can change protections, play-calling, third-down efficiency and how aggressively a defense is able to play.

For many contenders, there is no realistic replacement for the starter.

Pass protection

The best quarterbacks still need time.

Seattle's pressure was one of the defining features of Super Bowl LX, when the Seahawks repeatedly reached Maye and prevented New England from establishing its offense.

The same battle will shape this postseason.

The Chiefs are still resolving parts of the line around Mahomes. The Chargers need their tackles healthy. Houston has again invested in improving the protection around C.J. Stroud.

Once January arrives, the defenses get better.

The time quarterbacks have tends to get shorter.

The pass rush

This is the other side of the same argument.

The Rams traded for Garrett because the ability to generate pressure without constantly blitzing is enormously valuable against playoff quarterbacks.

Baltimore added Hendrickson.

The Seahawks already showed what a disruptive defensive front can do in a Super Bowl.

If terms such as edge rusher, defensive tackle or linebacker are less familiar, our guide to football positions breaks down the roles across an NFL roster.

The league is built around quarterbacks.

Some of the most important players in deciding who reaches Super Bowl LXI will be the ones trying to put them on the ground.

The playoff route

Winning 12 games and winning a division is not the same as sneaking into January as a wild card.

Home games matter. Bye weeks matter. Having to beat two elite opponents rather than three matters.

This is where division races can change the Super Bowl picture before the postseason even begins.

The Rams and Seahawks share the NFC West. The Bills have a New England team coming off a Super Bowl appearance in the AFC East. Kansas City must negotiate a division containing Denver and the Chargers.

A contender can have a very good regular season and still emerge with a brutal route to February.

When is Super Bowl LXI?

Super Bowl LXI will be played on Sunday, February 14, 2027, in Inglewood, California.

It will decide the champion of the 2026 NFL season.

What could move Super Bowl odds during the season?

The first few weeks should remove some of the largest preseason unknowns.

Kansas City will show whether Mahomes' recovery looks as complete under genuine regular-season pressure as it has during camp. Buffalo and Baltimore will reveal how quickly new coaching staffs can translate familiar talent into different systems.

For the Seahawks, the question is how much of last year's offensive rhythm survives the changes around Darnold.

The Rams have a different challenge: taking a roster that looks formidable on paper and making all of the new pieces work together quickly.

Then the market will begin responding to more familiar NFL evidence.

Quarterback injuries. Offensive-line problems. Defensive improvement. Division records. Playoff seeding.

The Super Bowl favorite in September does not have to remain the favorite in December.

For now, the Rams have earned the strongest position.

At 16%, the market is equally clear about something else.

There is a long way to go.

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