NFL predictions 2026: Divisions, playoffs and season outlook

The defending Super Bowl champions are not even favorites to win the NFC.

Seattle Seahawks completed a remarkable run last season behind Sam Darnold, but prediction markets currently put the Los Angeles Rams well clear of them in the conference race.

The Rams already had reigning MVP Matthew Stafford and the NFL's No. 1 offense; they have since added Myles Garrett to a defense strengthened across the secondary.

The AFC is even harder to untangle. The Buffalo Bills have changed head coach after a 12-win season. The Baltimore Ravens have done the same after missing the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is working back from a serious knee injury for the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Denver Broncos are trying to build on a 14-3 season that ended one win short of the Super Bowl.

If you're parachuting into the NFL for the first time, our guide to football rules covers the basics from downs and scoring through to positions and overtime.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

NFL predictions 2026: What do prediction markets say?

The current Super Bowl market gives us a useful starting point.

• Los Angeles Rams — 16%
• Buffalo Bills — 10%
• Baltimore Ravens — 9%
• Seattle Seahawks — 9%

Los Angeles also lead the NFC market at 25%, ahead of defending champion Seattle at 15%. The AFC is much tighter, with Buffalo at 16% and Baltimore at 15%.

Market data as of August 28, 2026. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.

Sixteen percent is enough to make the Rams clear favorites. It is nowhere near enough to make them dominant.

That distinction matters. Even the strongest NFL team has to get through a 17-game regular season, qualify for the playoffs and then survive a single-elimination postseason. One injury or one poor January afternoon can rewrite everything.

The current hierarchy therefore tells us which teams enter with the strongest cases rather than identifying an inevitable champion.

Our guide to how football prediction markets work explains how these market-implied probabilities are derived and why season-long prices can continue to change as new information arrives.

AFC predictions

There is no Rams equivalent in the AFC.

• Buffalo Bills — 16%
• Baltimore Ravens — 15%
• Kansas City Chiefs — 14%
• Los Angeles Chargers — 13%

Market data as of August 28, 2026. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.

Nine teams sit between 9% and 16%.

Buffalo lead, but only narrowly. The Bills, Ravens and Chiefs all begin with proven elite quarterbacks, while the Chargers, Broncos and Texans have plausible ways to improve without needing their quarterbacks to suddenly become different players.

Even New England deserve attention after going 14-3 and reaching Super Bowl LX last season.

The conference could be shaped as much by its division races as by any obvious hierarchy at the top.

AFC East: Can the Buffalo Bills stay ahead of the New England Patriots?

The Buffalo Bills still have the most important piece in place: Josh Allen.

What has changed is the structure around him.

Joe Brady has moved from offensive coordinator to head coach, while Jim Leonhard takes over the defense. Buffalo have also brought in DJ Moore to give Allen another established receiving option alongside a group that did not consistently threaten defenses downfield last season.

The New England Patriots are not chasing from as far back as the usual preseason narrative might suggest.

They went 14-3 last season and reached the Super Bowl. Drake Maye now has A.J. Brown after New England traded for the former Eagles receiver, adding another major weapon to an offense that already proved it could sustain a full-season challenge.

That makes this about more than whether Buffalo survive a coaching transition.

The Bills have Allen.

The Patriots have already shown they can push deep into January.

AFC North: Baltimore and Cincinnati have taken different routes back

The Baltimore Ravens are resetting without rebuilding.

John Harbaugh is gone after 18 seasons, but Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and much of the offensive core remain. New head coach Jesse Minter also inherits a defense that should be healthier and deeper than the group that struggled during stretches of 2025. Trey Hendrickson has arrived to strengthen the pass rush, while Nnamdi Madubuike could return from the neck injury that disrupted last season.

For Baltimore, the question is less about talent than whether a new coaching staff can restore consistency around Jackson.

The Cincinnati Bengals face the opposite problem.

Joe Burrow gives them one of the strongest passing foundations in football when healthy, but availability has repeatedly interrupted seasons that otherwise looked capable of going much further. He missed nine games last year following toe surgery.

Cincinnati have spent heavily on repairing the defense around him.

If that works, this could become one of the tighter division races in the conference.

If Burrow misses significant time again, almost everything else becomes secondary.

AFC South: Can Houston's offense catch up with its defense?

The Houston Texans went 12-5 last season despite rarely looking as comfortable offensively as their record might suggest.

Their defensive foundation already makes sense as a playoff formula. The bigger question is whether C.J. Stroud gets enough protection for the offense to stop living in difficult situations.

Offensive-line play is sometimes less obvious than quarterback or receiver statistics, but it can change almost everything an offense is able to call. Our guide to football positions explains the different roles across the line and why protection can become so important to the passing game.

The Jacksonville Jaguars remain the most obvious challenger, and the current conference pricing does not put an enormous gap between them and Houston.

For the Texans, improvement does not require the defense to somehow become better again: a more stable offense may be enough.

AFC West: Is this the hardest division to call?

The Kansas City Chiefs have spent most of the Mahomes era entering seasons as the unquestioned team to beat in the West.

Not this time.

Mahomes is returning from ACL and LCL injuries and said earlier in the offseason that he hoped to be ready for Week 1. Kansas City also have changes in the secondary after Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson departed.

The Denver Broncos have health questions of their own.

Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle during last season's playoffs but was expected to be fully available for training camp. Denver have added Jaylen Waddle alongside Courtland Sutton after going 14-3, while Davis Webb takes over play-calling duties.

Then come the Los Angeles Chargers.

Justin Herbert spent too much of last season dealing with compromised protection. Better health across the offensive line creates an obvious route to improvement before any discussion of Herbert himself.

Kansas City remain dangerous because Mahomes and Andy Reid are still there.

The difference in 2026 is that the rest of the division no longer has to imagine a route past them.

NFC predictions

The NFC market has a much clearer leader.

• Los Angeles Rams — 25%
• Seattle Seahawks — 15%
• Philadelphia Eagles — 12%
• Detroit Lions — 11%
• Dallas Cowboys — 11%
• San Francisco 49ers — 11%

Market data as of August 28, 2026. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.

The Rams are the obvious standout. What follows them is much less certain.

Seattle have the trophy. Philadelphia have retained much of a roster that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Dallas have rebuilt a defense that badly needed it, while Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay and Chicago all sit within a point of one another in the current conference market.

The road to Super Bowl LXI may run through the NFC West, but it does not necessarily end there.

NFC East: Philadelphia or Dallas?

The Philadelphia Eagles need their offense to look less labored than it did last season.

Jalen Hurts is working with another new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion after a year in which Philadelphia's passing game ranked 23rd in yards and the offense was held to 20 points or fewer in 10 games. A.J. Brown has also departed for New England.

There is still plenty to like. Hurts remains alongside Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith, while the defense gives Philadelphia a strong enough base that the offense does not need to become spectacular overnight.

The Dallas Cowboys have almost the inverse problem.

Dak Prescott and the passing offense are easier to trust than a defense that finished last in points allowed in 2025.

Dallas responded with a major overhaul, bringing in new coordinator Christian Parker and adding Rashan Gary, Jalen Thompson, P.J. Locke and other reinforcements around Quinnen Williams.

If that group becomes merely solid rather than elite, Dallas could look very different.

The New York Giants are another team worth watching following the arrival of John Harbaugh and the continued development of Jaxson Dart, although a young roster probably needs to prove considerably more before it belongs alongside Philadelphia and Dallas in the conference conversation.

NFC North: Four teams with genuine hope

The Detroit Lions currently carry the strongest conference pricing of the group, but there is no obvious runaway team here.

For the Chicago Bears, much rests on Caleb Williams.

His first season under Ben Johnson produced the spectacular plays everybody expected. The challenge now is reducing the quieter stretches between them: stalled drives, missed throws and possessions that required Williams to create something after the original structure broke down.

Chicago also still have defensive questions, particularly around the pass rush.

The Green Bay Packers remain close enough to capitalize if either Detroit or Chicago stalls, while the Minnesota Vikings prevent the division from looking like a comfortable three-team hierarchy.

This may be the NFC division where results between the contenders themselves matter most.

NFC South: Is anyone ready to take control?

The NFC South gave us a three-way 8-9 logjam last season between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, with Carolina eventually taking the division.

Little about the 2026 picture suggests a dominant team is about to emerge.

Tampa Bay have Baker Mayfield but are adapting after significant change around him. Carolina need another step from Bryce Young. Atlanta have reshaped parts of the defense, while the New Orleans Saints finished last season strongly enough to enter this year with more optimism than a typical fourth-place team.

That makes this one of the divisions where preseason predictions probably deserve the least confidence. A good September could change everything.

NFC West: The Rams have the market, the Seahawks have the trophy

This is the most obvious tension in the NFC.

The Seattle Seahawks are defending Super Bowl champions.

Sam Darnold returns after completing one of the most remarkable career turns in recent NFL history, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads a receiving group that still gives Seattle plenty of ways to attack. Mike Macdonald's broader structure remains largely intact too.

There have been losses. Kenneth Walker III has moved to Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet is working back from an ACL injury and Seattle have changed offensive coordinator.

The Los Angeles Rams, meanwhile, have spent the offseason trying to remove the weaknesses that stopped them last year.

Myles Garrett joins a front already capable of creating pressure, while Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson strengthen the secondary. Stafford returns after throwing for a league-leading 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns during his MVP season.

There are still questions around receiver depth and Stafford's age, but there are fewer obvious weaknesses than on most teams in the league.

That's why the Rams enter at 25% to win the NFC while the defending champions sit at 15%.

It also gives the two Rams-Seahawks games much more significance than a normal division series.

Which teams could change the NFL picture?

The current Super Bowl market becomes crowded very quickly once you get beyond the Rams.

That makes the term “outsider” slightly misleading.

The Denver Broncos are only 6% to win the Super Bowl despite going 14-3 last season. Nix returning healthy and Waddle joining the receiving group gives a good team room to become better.

The Los Angeles Chargers have a similar argument. Much of their upside comes from fixing protection around Herbert rather than hoping for a dramatic leap from the quarterback himself.

The Cincinnati Bengals remain dangerous for as long as Burrow is healthy. If the redesigned defense holds up, Cincinnati may no longer need the offense to rescue them every week.

And the Chicago Bears already won 11 games last season. If Williams raises his week-to-week floor while keeping the improvisational ability that makes him dangerous, the current 10% NFC price could start looking considerably more interesting.

That is the nature of this season. There are teams at 5% or 6% in the Super Bowl market that you could picture playing deep into January.

Which teams are most likely to reach the NFL playoffs?

The playoff picture gives us another way of looking at the hierarchy.

The Rams currently sit above 80% in the playoff-qualifier market, with Buffalo and Baltimore also among the strongest teams. Seattle, New England, Detroit, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Houston and Philadelphia all enter with substantial market confidence behind them.

That gap between making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl is important.

A team can be expected to reach January and still have only a single-digit probability of ultimately winning it all.

NFL seasons reward consistency; NFL postseasons reward surviving one game at a time.

For readers unfamiliar with some of the statistics used to judge whether teams are performing better or worse than their results suggest, our football statistics guide explains everything from passer rating and interceptions to sacks and yards after catch.

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