NFL predictions 2026: playoff chances and division races
The San Francisco 49ers narrowly lead the championship market, but Jacksonville's division advantage and Minnesota's unbeaten start are reshaping the wider 2026 NFL season.
Football
By Chris Old
Five weeks have made the preseason picture look very different.
The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 after beating the defending champion Seattle Seahawks. The Minnesota Vikings are unbeaten, too. The Jacksonville Jaguars have opened a substantial lead in the AFC South, while the Houston Texans have only just collected their first win.
Yet the markets have not simply copied the standings. The Los Angeles Rams remain close to San Francisco in the championship race despite entering Monday night's game at 2-2. The Dallas Cowboys lead the NFC East division market even though the New York Giants currently lead the division on the field.
This is the outlook for the 2026 regular season and the playoffs that follow in January 2027, ending with Super Bowl LXI. For the individual games coming next, our NFL Week 6 schedule and predictions covers kickoff times and the matchups to watch.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
NFL predictions 2026: The season at a glance
Race
Leading team or teams in the market
Market-implied probability
NFL championship
San Francisco 49ers
15%
NFC championship
San Francisco 49ers
22%
AFC championship
Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs
20% each
Strongest playoff qualification prices
Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills
93% each
Market data as of October 12, 2026. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.
San Francisco has moved ahead of the Rams in the championship market, but there is little separation between them. In the AFC, three teams share the leading conference price.
The distinction between these markets is useful. A team can have a strong chance of reaching the playoffs and a much smaller chance of winning the championship. Qualifying gives it an opportunity; it still has to survive the postseason.
What changed after Sunday's Week 5 games?
San Francisco's 32-29 win in Seattle strengthened its position in the NFC West. The Seahawks remain credible contenders, but turnovers have undermined them, including four against the 49ers. Seattle's defense kept the game competitive; the offense repeatedly made its job harder.
Jacksonville reached 4-1 with a last-second 19-17 win over Philadelphia. The Jaguars are finding ways to win without playing cleanly throughout: their latest escape included penalties, missed goal-line opportunities and an emergency long snapper.
New England's offense supplied a more convincing statement. Drake Maye produced 374 passing yards and five total touchdowns in a 45-17 win over Las Vegas. The Patriots are back at 3-2, although injuries across their supporting cast complicate how sustainable that performance will be.
Minnesota improved to 5-0 by beating New Orleans 23-13. Its start now carries real weight in a division where Detroit, Chicago and Green Bay are all 3-2. The Vikings have built a cushion that the others must erase before the standings can resemble a four-way race again.
Buffalo and the Rams have not yet played their Monday night game. Their records and the prices above reflect the position before that matchup.
NFL division predictions 2026
The division markets show where the standings have changed expectations and where confidence in a team extends beyond its current record.
Division
Market favorite
Division-win probability
Next-highest price
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
72%
New England Patriots — 46%
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
62%
Cincinnati Bengals — 35%
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars
73%
Houston Texans — 16%
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
67%
Denver Broncos — 25%
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
39%
Philadelphia Eagles — 34%
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
44%
Detroit Lions — 30%
NFC South
Carolina Panthers
48%
Atlanta Falcons — 39%
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
63%
Los Angeles Rams — 29%
AFC East: Buffalo leads, but New England is moving again
The Bills are 3-1 before visiting the Rams, while New England has recovered to 3-2. Buffalo retains the higher division price, but Maye's recent passing gives the Patriots a reason to believe they can sustain the challenge.
The Jets are 2-3 after beating Cleveland and face New England next. They can influence the race immediately, although their own division price is much lower at 4%. Miami's 0-5 start leaves it with considerably more ground to recover.
AFC North: Baltimore has the advantage without a comfortable lead
Baltimore is 4-1 after winning 30-23 in overtime in Atlanta. Tyler Huntley helped deliver that result with Lamar Jackson sidelined by an ankle injury, an encouraging sign of resilience, but not a reason to dismiss the quarterback concern.
Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Cleveland are all 3-2. The Bengals are the closest challenger in the division market, but there is only one win separating Baltimore from all three teams. Division games and Jackson's availability could change the outlook quickly.
The Jaguars' 4-1 start contrasts sharply with Houston's 1-4 record. Indianapolis is 2-3 and Tennessee is 0-5. Jacksonville now has both the results and a strong division-market lead.
The Texans' win over Tennessee gives them something to build on, but their next game in London against Jacksonville is a more demanding measure of progress. The Jaguars' run defense can put more responsibility on C.J. Stroud, while Houston's pass rush can test a protection unit with an injury concern at left tackle.
AFC West: Kansas City is setting the pace
The Chiefs are 4-0 after their bye, with Denver and Las Vegas both 3-2. The Chargers are 0-5, a substantial departure from the optimistic preseason discussion about fixing Justin Herbert's protection.
Denver's defense helped rescue its latest win, while its offense still has work to do. Sean Payton resumed play-calling against the Chargers, but the Broncos converted only one of 12 third downs. Chasing Kansas City becomes harder if Denver must keep relying on takeaways to create its scoring opportunities.
These division races feed into the broader AFC championship outlook, where Buffalo, Baltimore and Kansas City currently share the leading price.
The Giants lead at 3-1-1 after their tie with Washington. Philadelphia and Dallas are both 2-3, while the Commanders are 1-3-1. Yet the Cowboys lead the division market at 39%, followed by the Eagles at 34% and the Giants at 31%.
That makes the Giants an important part of the story. Their current advantage is real. The market still gives Dallas and Philadelphia greater confidence over the remaining season, but both need results to make that assessment hold up.
The Vikings are 5-0, with the other three teams at 3-2. Minnesota leads the division market at 44%, ahead of Detroit at 30%, Chicago at 20% and Green Bay at 12%.
Green Bay's 31-7 win over Chicago shows how quickly the chasing order can change. The Packers forced five turnovers, while the Bears were without Caleb Williams. Minnesota's advantage makes the next stretch especially demanding for its rivals: improving is not enough if the leader keeps winning.
Carolina is 2-2 after its bye and leads the market at 48%, with Atlanta next at 39%. The Falcons are 2-3 following the overtime loss to Baltimore, while Tampa Bay and New Orleans are both 1-4.
This remains a division where a short run of results can have a large effect. Carolina has the strongest position, but no team has built the sort of cushion Jacksonville enjoys in the AFC South. Atlanta's ability to recover from a close loss is still relevant to how quickly this race tightens.
NFC West: San Francisco leads a race with several contenders
The 49ers are 5-0 and have already gone 3-0 in division games. Seattle is 3-2, the Rams are 2-2 before Monday night, and Arizona is 1-4. San Francisco's 63% division price reflects a substantial early advantage.
The Rams remain the next-highest team in that market at 29%, ahead of Seattle at 19%. That is a useful reminder that the championship, conference and division markets answer different questions. Seattle still commands considerable championship confidence, but has an immediate deficit to recover within its own division.
NFL playoff outlook: Who is most likely to qualify?
The strongest qualification prices span both conferences. These are chances of reaching the postseason.
AFC team
Playoff qualification probability
NFC team
Playoff qualification probability
Kansas City Chiefs
93%
San Francisco 49ers
90%
Buffalo Bills
93%
Minnesota Vikings
83%
Jacksonville Jaguars
89%
Seattle Seahawks
77%
Baltimore Ravens
88%
Los Angeles Rams
76%
New England Patriots
76%
Detroit Lions
71%
Denver Broncos
67%
Chicago Bears
58%
Cincinnati Bengals
66%
Dallas Cowboys
50%
The next group is much less settled. Carolina is at 49%, Atlanta at 42%, Philadelphia and Green Bay at 41%, Pittsburgh at 39% and Houston at 38%. A division title can provide a route into January even when a team's broader conference price remains modest.
Houston illustrates the distinction between ability and position. Its defense can still make life difficult for strong opponents, but a 1-4 start reduces its room for error. Jacksonville has more flexibility because it has already banked four wins.
Our dedicated NFL playoff predictions covers qualification in more detail. The season hub brings those chances together with the division and championship races.
Buffalo, Baltimore and Kansas City are all 20% in the AFC championship market, followed by Jacksonville at 15%. Denver is at 10%, with New England and Cincinnati at 9% each.
That grouping leaves several plausible conference contenders. Winning a division can improve the postseason route, but it does not settle which of these teams will be strongest in January.
In the NFC, San Francisco leads at 22%, narrowly ahead of the Rams at 21%. Seattle follows at 16%, with Minnesota at 11% and Detroit and Chicago at 10% each.
Minnesota's unbeaten record has strengthened its season position without making it the conference favorite. San Francisco and the Rams still carry the leading NFC prices.
The top of the market is crowded. San Francisco's unbeaten start supports its position, but its lead over the Rams is small and several AFC teams remain close behind.
These prices describe the market's championship assessment. Our Super Bowl LXI predictions and odds focuses on the title race in more detail.
Quarterback availability remains central. Baltimore has won without Jackson, but an extended absence would present a different test. New England's recent improvement also depends on protecting Maye with a supporting cast that has accumulated injuries.
Division games can change both the standings and the routes available to contenders. Jacksonville's meeting with Houston is especially important for a challenger trying to narrow an early gap, while the Giants' ability to keep accumulating results will test the NFC East market's preference for Dallas and Philadelphia.
The next question for Seattle is whether it can turn good defensive work into cleaner wins. For Denver, it is whether the offense can sustain drives when the defense does not supply favorable field position.
Those are different problems, and solving either would strengthen a team's season outlook beyond one encouraging result.
Important information
Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG). Crypto.com | Derivatives North America uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.
Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.
