NFL playoff predictions 2026: Who will make the playoffs?

32 teams start the NFL season.

Only 14 will still be playing when the postseason begins.

For the strongest contenders, anything short of January football would be a major disappointment. Prediction markets currently put the Los Angeles Rams at an 80% chance of reaching the playoffs, with the Baltimore Ravens at 79%, Buffalo Bills at 76% and New England Patriots at 72%.

None is guaranteed a place.

That distinction matters in a league where one quarterback injury, a difficult division or a poor stretch against conference opponents can quickly turn a comfortable position into a wild-card fight.

The Rams begin with the strongest probability in the market. Baltimore and Buffalo are almost alongside them. New England's place among the early leaders also reflects how dramatically expectations have changed after the Patriots reached Super Bowl LX last season.

Then comes the much harder part: separating the rest of a league in which only seven teams from each conference can advance.

For a broader look at the Super Bowl, conference and division races, see our NFL predictions 2026: Divisions, playoffs and season outlook.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

NFL playoff prediction and odds 2026

Prediction markets currently make the Los Angeles Rams the team most likely to reach the 2026 NFL playoffs, with an 80% market-implied probability.

• Los Angeles Rams — 80%
• Baltimore Ravens — 79%
• Buffalo Bills — 76%
• New England Patriots — 72%

Market data as of September 3, 2026. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.

There is very little separating the leaders.

The Rams hold the highest probability, but Baltimore is only one percentage point behind. Buffalo is firmly in the same group, while New England begins the season with the market clearly expecting another competitive year.

Those numbers are useful as a hierarchy, rather than a guarantee.

An 80% playoff probability still leaves meaningful room for the Rams to miss January. At the same time, a team beginning much closer to 50% has far less margin for injuries, a slow start or losing ground inside its division.

Our guide to how football prediction markets work explains how market-implied probabilities work and why they can change throughout the season.

How many teams make the NFL playoffs?

Fourteen teams make the NFL playoffs: seven from the AFC and seven from the NFC.

Each conference sends its four division winners and three wild-card teams to the postseason. The No. 1 seed in each conference receives the only first-round bye, while seeds No. 2 through No. 7 play on Wild Card Weekend.

That structure is important when assessing playoff chances.

A team is not competing against all 31 other teams for one of 14 places. Its route runs through its own conference, with a division championship guaranteeing a playoff berth regardless of where that record ranks against teams from the other conference.

The six games against division opponents therefore carry extra weight. They affect the division standings directly and can also become important when postseason tiebreakers are needed.

If you're new to the NFL, our football rules guide covers the structure of the game and season in more detail.

Which AFC teams are most likely to make the playoffs?

Three of the four teams shown at the top of the current playoff market come from the AFC.

That tells us something about the strength of the conference.

It also creates a problem: Baltimore, Buffalo and New England cannot simply be treated as three of the seven playoff teams before a snap has been played. Kansas City, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver, the Los Angeles Chargers and others have legitimate postseason expectations of their own.

There will not be room for everybody.

Baltimore Ravens — 79%

The Ravens have the highest playoff probability in the AFC.

Lamar Jackson gives Baltimore one of the league's highest offensive ceilings, and the roster around him still contains enough proven talent to expect a run at both the AFC North and a high playoff seed.

There are changes to absorb.

Jesse Minter has replaced John Harbaugh as head coach, while a defense that finished below Baltimore's usual standards last season has been strengthened with Trey Hendrickson and the return of Calais Campbell.

The division may be the more immediate complication.

Cincinnati has Joe Burrow back at quarterback, and Pittsburgh rarely makes the AFC North straightforward. Six division games give Baltimore plenty of opportunities to establish control — or lose it.

At 79%, the market expects the Ravens to handle that challenge more often than not.

Buffalo Bills — 76%

Buffalo's playoff case continues to begin with Josh Allen.

As long as Allen is healthy, the Bills have a quarterback capable of raising the level of the entire offense and turning difficult games with individual plays.

The organization around him has changed.

Joe Brady has moved from offensive coordinator to head coach, and New England's emergence means Buffalo can no longer assume that the AFC East will follow the same pattern it did through much of Allen's prime.

That does not make the Bills fragile.

It makes the division more consequential.

Buffalo has spent years reaching the postseason. The bigger question in 2026 may again become where the Bills are seeded once they get there.

New England Patriots — 72%

New England enters 2026 in a very different position from a year ago.

The Patriots are no longer an interesting young team trying to break through. They are the reigning AFC champions.

Drake Maye's development was central to last season's run to Super Bowl LX, and New England has since added A.J. Brown to a receiving group that should give the quarterback more ways to attack defenses.

The challenge is repeating that success once everybody knows what is coming.

Opponents now have a full regular season and postseason of Maye tape to study. The Patriots also play in a division containing a Buffalo team that has been one of the AFC's most reliable regular-season teams for years.

A 72% probability therefore looks less like enthusiasm for a surprise team and more like recognition of what New England has already become.

Which NFC teams are most likely to make the playoffs?

The NFC starts with one clear market leader.

Los Angeles Rams — 80%

The Rams have the highest playoff probability in the NFL.

That is consistent with their position among the leading Super Bowl contenders.

Matthew Stafford returns after an MVP season. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams remain major receiving threats, while Los Angeles responded to falling short in last season's NFC Championship Game by adding Myles Garrett to the defense.

The roster is built for January.

The route there is still uncomfortable.

Seattle enters as the defending Super Bowl champion, while San Francisco remains capable of making the NFC West one of the league's tougher divisions.

That gives the Rams two objectives rather than one.

Make the playoffs first.

Win the NFC West and improve the path once they get there second.

Seattle Seahawks — 69%

The Seahawks have the advantage of knowing their best football can survive the postseason.

They just won the Super Bowl.

Mike Macdonald's defense remains the foundation, with a front and secondary capable of changing games without requiring the offense to score on every possession.

The bigger uncertainty is on the other side of the ball. Kenneth Walker III is gone, and Seattle has changed offensive coordinators. Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba remain central pieces, but the Seahawks have to build a new version of the offense rather than simply replay last season.

The championship pedigree is real. So is the difficulty of doing it twice.

Detroit Lions — 69%

Detroit should again be part of the NFC playoff conversation, but the NFC North gives the Lions very little room to cruise.

Green Bay and Chicago both have realistic postseason ambitions, while Minnesota adds another division opponent capable of making those six games uncomfortable.

That can work both ways.

A strong division may send multiple teams to the playoffs. It can also damage records enough that a good team reaches December fighting for a wild card rather than preparing for a home playoff game.

Philadelphia Eagles — 66%

Philadelphia remains one of the more talented teams in the NFC.

Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith give the offense established difference-makers, while the roster still contains many of the pieces from the Eagles' recent championship team.

The question is whether the offense becomes less predictable.

Another change at offensive coordinator puts responsibility back on Hurts and the coaching staff to create a passing game capable of punishing defenses when they load up against Barkley.

Dallas makes the NFC East more complicated as well.

Like many of the stronger NFC contenders, Philadelphia may find that winning the division is considerably more valuable than simply being good enough for a wild card.

Could a playoff outsider break through?

Almost certainly.

One of the recurring features of the NFL is turnover in the postseason field.

A team that looks ordinary in September can find a quarterback, a defensive identity or simply a way to win close games. Another team that appears safely inside the playoff picture can lose its quarterback and spend the rest of the season trying to survive.

That uncertainty is particularly important before Week 1.

We know which rosters look strongest; we do not yet know which offseason changes will work.

That is why preseason playoff probabilities should be treated as expectations rather than conclusions.

Three teams outside the leading group stand out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 44%

Tampa Bay has one of the cleaner routes among the teams outside the early favorites.

Baker Mayfield gives the Buccaneers an established quarterback, and the NFC South does not contain an obvious heavyweight. NFL.com's preseason panel overwhelmingly picked Tampa Bay to win the division, with 17 of 19 analysts choosing the Buccaneers.

That matters because Tampa Bay does not necessarily need to outperform the strongest wild-card contenders across the NFC.

Win the division and the Buccaneers are in.

The question is whether the defense improves enough and the offensive line stays healthy enough to avoid another season in which winnable games slip away.

New York Giants — 35%

The Giants are one of the more interesting turnaround candidates.

Jaxson Dart showed enough as a rookie to make a second-year jump plausible, while John Harbaugh brings a level of coaching stability New York has lacked.

The defense may provide the more immediate reason for optimism. Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux give the Giants a pass rush capable of disrupting games even if the rest of the roster remains imperfect. NFL.com has described New York as a team for which playoff contention would not be surprising.

The concern is the offensive line and whether Dart gets enough help to turn promising stretches into consistent production.

But New York has more reasons for optimism than its recent record suggests.

Washington Commanders — 32%

Washington would require a bigger rebound.

The Commanders fell away last season, but the roster has changed significantly since then. The defense has been rebuilt with additions including Odafe Oweh, Leo Chenal and Amik Robertson, while the larger upside still depends on Jayden Daniels.

Two seasons ago, Daniels helped take Washington to the NFC Championship Game.

If he stays healthy and the defensive changes work quickly, the Commanders have a route back into the wild-card conversation.

At their current market-implied probability, prediction markets remain skeptical.

That is precisely what makes Washington interesting as an outsider rather than an expected playoff team.

What will decide the 2026 NFL playoff race?

Division games

Winning a division remains the cleanest route to January.

Every team plays six games against division opponents, and those games directly affect both the standings and several postseason tiebreakers.

That becomes especially important in divisions with multiple playoff-caliber teams.

The NFC West could have the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers competing for postseason places.

The AFC West contains Kansas City, Denver and the Chargers.

The NFC North may produce one of the league's more competitive four-team races.

Those games effectively carry two consequences: one team gains ground while a direct rival loses it.

Quarterback health

Nothing can change an NFL season more quickly.

Buffalo without Allen is a fundamentally different team. So is Baltimore without Jackson, Cincinnati without Burrow or Kansas City without Patrick Mahomes.

The same applies to Stafford in Los Angeles.

Quarterbacks affect far more than passing production. Their absence changes protection calls, third-down efficiency, play selection and often how aggressively the opposing defense can play.

There is no equivalent replacement for an elite starter.

Offensive-line play

Quarterback performance also depends heavily on what happens in front of him.

A good offensive line keeps the entire playbook available. It creates room for the running game, limits obvious passing situations and gives quarterbacks enough time to work through progressions.

Poor protection has the opposite effect.

Third-and-long becomes more common. Pass rushers can attack without respecting the run. Quarterbacks start speeding up reads that were designed to develop more slowly.

Our guide to football positions explains the roles of tackles, guards, centers and the other positions across an NFL roster.

Schedule strength

Not every 17-game schedule creates the same path to January.

The quality of a team's division matters. So does the timing of difficult road games, short weeks and the bye.

The 2026 schedule also includes an expanded group of overseas games. Our guide to the NFL international games and their impact on the 2026 season looks at the additional travel and recovery demands involved.

Tiebreakers

By December, games played early in the season can suddenly become extremely important.

Head-to-head results, division record, conference record, common games, strength of victory and strength of schedule can all be required to separate teams with identical records.

That is another reason conference and division games carry so much weight.

A September result can eventually determine who plays in January.

What could move NFL playoff odds during the season?

Results will provide the most obvious information.

The harder part is determining what those results actually mean.

One loss by a contender may change very little. Three weeks of poor pass protection or a defense repeatedly giving up explosive plays may reveal something much more important.

Quarterback injuries can change expectations immediately.

So can improvements that appear sustainable: a young quarterback taking a leap, an offensive line coming together or a defense suddenly generating pressure without having to blitz.

The mathematics of the race also become more important as the year develops.

By November and December, playoff probabilities are increasingly shaped by records, conference position, tiebreakers and remaining schedules rather than preseason assessments of roster strength.

For now, prediction markets identify a clear leading group.

The Rams sit at 80%, Baltimore at 79%, Buffalo at 76% and New England at 72%.

Those are strong starting positions. None guarantees football in January.

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