How football prediction markets work

Prediction markets fuse different elements from betting on live games, futures markets, and registering your season-long predictions. It’s important to understand how prediction markets work before trading.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is a site where you can wager on specific sporting events. In this case, we’re focusing on Pro Football prediction markets. You can predict that a team will cover a spread, a player will gain a certain number of yards, or score a touchdown, among other things. 

They are similar to the offers to a traditional sportsbook, but offer more fluidity and have a different pricing method. Rather than placing a singular bet on something, you buy in event contracts of that event taking place. You are trading contract prices with other players, rather than betting against a book.

How do Pro Football event contracts work?

When you are wagering through football prediction market contracts, there will be a line set for the point spread and the total number of points scored in a game. 

You will also see different price offerings for player props that may occur during the event. The higher the probability of something happening, the higher the price of the contract. For example, 50% odds on a wager will return nearly equal to your wager in winnings, but if the odds are only 20%, you’ll have a return of $10 on $2. If the event does not happen, you can lose all the money put in. 

While the event is live, you can still make decisions on buying more or selling the contacts at a current price. This is the increased fluidity aspect of prediction markets. The markets are continuously active until the end of each event, meaning if you want to sell your position, you may do so at any time. 

Types of football markets you can trade

There is a wide variety of markets that you can trade on prediction markets. You can pick a singular game market as discussed previously, or you can venture into the season-long markets. The only difference between the two is the amount of time between placing your wager and its resolution. 

Single-game markets cover all the props that could happen in a single game. They are broken down on both a team and player level. An example would be a team X @ team Y even contract, for instance, a Green Bay @ Pittsburgh match. You can trade on the winner of the game, but also the spread of the game. 

The same can be said for season-long markets, but they go beyond the confines of a single game. An example would be the OG.com’s Pro Football Champion 2026-2027 contract, currently contested between four teams 

Prediction markets vs. traditional sportsbooks

Traditional sportsbooks offer a singular price on a spread, total, or prop and move the lines based on the wagers they’ve received. Sometimes, those markets will lock, and you are unable to cash out your position. You are also placing wagers against the sportsbook, which means they control the prices and the offerings at your disposal. 

With prediction markets, you’re buying event contracts in a market established by traders. This is more like trading with your peers rather than the lines that the books set. The market is swayed by the opinions of the fellow traders, not the lines put out by a singular source. 

Understanding resolution and settlement rules

Prediction market settlement rules are quite basic. When the event concludes, the contract is settled. If your position was a success, then you are paid $1 for every contract you purchased. For example, if you bought five contracts at $0.20, you’d be paid $5 – a profit of $4

If the wager is settled as a loss, then all losing contracts are deemed worthless, and all trading finalizes. This means you would lose all money you used to buy the event contracts.

If the event is still ongoing and you like the price you are being offered for your contracts, you can sell them before the event concludes. When you sell your position, the amount is final, and your payout no longer depends on what occurs in the game after you sell. 

Selling your position is a strategy used to mitigate risk when you think your position is vulnerable. It can also be used to buy out a position that is progressing toward a loss so that you can take out the money before it drops to a total zero. 

Managing risk when trading event contracts

Prediction markets require you to use your money to take your positions in the market. This means that you should avoid risky practices and ensure you have all the necessary information possible before making a wager. 

If you are still learning how to trade football prediction markets, don’t be afraid to take it slow. Following along live with the game helps keep you informed and could also allow you to find good places to cash out for a profit. You should always make sure you don’t wager more than you can afford to lose on any of your positions. 

FAQs about football prediction markets

How does a football prediction market contract settle?

When the event concludes, or you sell your position, the user is paid out based on how many shares they purchased. When an event contract settles, it does so either at $1 (if the event occurred), or at $0 (if the event didn’t occur). 

What does the contract price mean in a prediction market?

The cost to buy an event contract. The higher the market-implied probability, the higher the price it will be to purchase that position. For example, if the market-implied probability of an event occurring is 20%, the contract would be selling at 20 cents. If the event occurs, you can win $1 for each 20 cents. 

What are the differences between prediction markets vs. sports betting?

Sportsbooks set their prices on the lines offered. Prediction markets allow traders to buy event contracts against other peers in the market to set the price.

Can you sell a football prediction market contract before the game ends?

Yes. Markets remain open until the event goes final. You can sell your contracts at any point of the game. 

What types of football events can you trade on prediction markets?

Point spreads, totals, player props, as well as season-long predictions for teams. You can trade both professional football and college football. 

What happens if you lose a prediction market contract?

If your position loses, all of your contracts will become worthless, and you will not be paid out. You will lose the money. 

Important Information: Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG) Crypto.com | Derivatives North America and uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology. 

Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk