AFC East predictions and odds: Who will win the AFC East in 2026?

For most of the recent Josh Allen era, predicting the AFC East started in the same place.

Buffalo Bills.

That changed last season.

New England Patriots went 14-3, won the division and reached Super Bowl LX. Buffalo finished 12-5 and entered the postseason as a wild card, while Miami went 7-10 and the New York Jets finished 3-14. The Patriots also went 5-1 inside the AFC East, compared with Buffalo's 4-2.

The market nevertheless puts Buffalo back on top for 2026.

There is a reasonable case for that. Allen remains one of football's defining quarterbacks, and Buffalo has strengthened around him with DJ Moore while adding Bradley Chubb and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to a defense now run by Jim Leonhard. Joe Brady's promotion to head coach also preserves significant offensive continuity rather than asking Allen to learn an entirely new system.

New England's argument is different.

The Patriots do not need to project what Drake Maye might eventually become. His second season already ended with New England representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. The offense finished third in the NFL in yards per game and second in scoring, and A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs now join the receiving group around him.

That creates a genuine two-team race at the top.

The Jets are trying to accelerate a young roster by adding Geno Smith, Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Miami begins a more fundamental reset under Jeff Hafley, with Malik Willis expected to open the season at quarterback.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AFC East prediction and odds 2026

Prediction markets currently make the Buffalo Bills the AFC favorites at 18%, narrowly ahead of the Baltimore Ravens at 15%.

• Buffalo Bills — 63%
• New England Patriots — 45%
• New York Jets — 9%
• Miami Dolphins — 7%

Market data as of September 9, 2026. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.

Buffalo has a clear market edge, but New England remains close enough to make this a genuine two-team race.

The Bills have Allen and a roster designed to contend immediately.

The Patriots have something Buffalo cannot dismiss: proof.

New England won the division last season, finished two games ahead of the Bills and carried that form all the way through the AFC playoffs.

That is why the 63%-45% gap feels significant without making Buffalo remotely untouchable.

The Jets and Dolphins remain outsiders, but their probabilities are high enough to recognize that neither needs to become a Super Bowl-level team to complicate the division. A major quarterback improvement, a successful coaching transition or a strong run through the six AFC East games could quickly change the picture.

Buffalo Bills — 63%

Buffalo's case still begins with Josh Allen.

That may sound obvious, but it matters more in a division containing one rapidly improving young quarterback and two teams entering significant transitions.

An elite quarterback raises a team's floor.

Allen has already shown that Buffalo can survive injuries, protection issues and games where the original offensive plan does not work because he can create production after structure breaks down.

The Bills have also made a deliberate attempt to give him more help.

DJ Moore joins Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer at receiver. Moore gives Buffalo an established threat capable of playing inside or outside, producing after the catch and attacking defenses vertically. The current roster also retains James Cook in the backfield and Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox at tight end.

The more interesting changes may be on defense.

Chubb joins Greg Rousseau on the edge. Gardner-Johnson adds experience to a secondary containing Christian Benford, Cole Bishop and Maxwell Hairston, while Terrel Bernard remains central at linebacker.

Then comes the coaching transition.

Brady already knows Allen and the offense intimately after serving as Buffalo's offensive coordinator. Pete Carmichael becomes offensive coordinator and Leonhard takes over the defense.

That should create less disruption than replacing the entire offensive structure around Allen.

It still creates uncertainty.

Buffalo lost the division last year despite going 12-5.

The standard in 2026 is not whether the Bills remain good.

It is whether the changes around Allen are enough to move them back ahead of a Patriots team that has already overtaken them once.

At 63%, prediction markets believe they are.

New England Patriots — 45%

New England is not merely the interesting challenger.

It is the defending AFC East champion.

The Patriots went 14-3 last season, won five of six divisional games and then reached Super Bowl LX. Maye's development changed the trajectory of the franchise far faster than a conventional rebuild normally allows.

The offensive production backs that up.

New England finished 2025 third in the NFL in yards per game and second in scoring, while Maye emerged as an MVP-level quarterback in only his second season.

The offseason response has been aggressive.

A.J. Brown gives Maye a proven No. 1 receiver. Romeo Doubs provides another experienced option, while the offensive line retains Will Campbell and has added pieces around him.

That matters because the hardest part of Maye's 2026 season may not be physical.

It is adjustment.

Defenses now have a full season and postseason run to study. Opponents know which concepts New England preferred, where Maye was most dangerous and which pressures caused problems.

The Patriots' answer has been to give him more options rather than simply hoping development continues naturally.

There is coaching continuity too.

Mike Vrabel remains in charge and Josh McDaniels continues as offensive coordinator after winning AP Assistant Coach of the Year in 2025.

The obvious caution is expectation.

Last year, New England could grow into the season.

Now it begins as the defending AFC champion and every opponent knows exactly what it is dealing with.

Buffalo will treat the two head-to-head meetings as some of the most important games on its schedule. Defenses have better film on Maye. The Patriots will get fewer opportunities to surprise anyone.

If Maye takes another step anyway, 45% may begin to look conservative.

New York Jets — 9%

Nine percent reflects a team that looks significantly different from the one that went 3-14.

It does not mean the Jets belong alongside Buffalo and New England yet.

New York Jets lost all six AFC East games last season and finished with the league's 31st-ranked scoring defense. The defense also failed to record a single interception across the entire season.

Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey have responded aggressively.

Geno Smith returns at quarterback. Demario Davis joins the linebacker group. Minkah Fitzpatrick adds an established presence to the secondary, while the Jets have also brought in veterans across the defensive front.

The Geno move is particularly interesting.

He gives the Jets a much clearer short-term answer at quarterback than hoping another young player immediately develops into one.

New York Jets also retains Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall as offensive focal points, while Frank Reich arrives as offensive coordinator. The offensive line returns significant continuity around them.

There is young talent to work with too.

The Jets were one of the league's youngest teams last season, so the veteran additions do not need to transform the roster by themselves. Internal development can do part of the work.

The problem is the height of the bar.

Going from 3-14 to competitive is one challenge.

Going from 3-14 to finishing ahead of both Josh Allen's Bills and the defending AFC champions is another.

At 9%, the market is giving the Jets a plausible path while still demanding substantial evidence before treating them as a true division favorite.

Miami Dolphins — 7%

Miami may be the hardest AFC East team to project.

There is enough talent to make the Dolphins dangerous.

There is also enough change to make almost every projection unusually uncertain.

Jeff Hafley begins his first season as head coach, while Malik Willis is expected to open the year as Miami's starting quarterback. The Dolphins have also rebuilt much of the receiving group after moving away from the Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle era.

The offensive starting point is obvious.

De'Von Achane remains.

He gives Miami explosive rushing ability, receiving value and a way to create offense without asking Willis to carry everything through conventional dropback passing. Achane is also one of Miami's six team captains entering the season alongside Willis.

The current receiver group includes Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington and several younger options, while Aaron Brewer and Austin Jackson remain among the established offensive-line pieces.

Willis is the biggest variable.

His mobility can change the structure of the offense immediately. Defenses have to account for quarterback movement in addition to Achane, potentially opening different option concepts and creating easier rushing numbers.

The question is whether Miami can pass efficiently when opponents force Willis to operate from obvious passing situations.

Hafley also has to establish an entirely new team identity while answering that question.

The Dolphins can improve significantly without winning the AFC East.

At 7%, prediction markets are leaving more room for a surprise than the Jets had in our earlier working numbers, but Miami remains clearly behind the Buffalo-New England pair.

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AFC East key factors

Does Buffalo still have the division's biggest quarterback advantage?

For years, the simplest AFC East argument was that Buffalo had Josh Allen and everybody else did not.

That is no longer enough.

Allen remains the most established quarterback in the division and arguably the player most capable of changing a game without ideal circumstances.

But Maye has dramatically reduced the gap.

His second season did not merely produce encouraging individual numbers. New England won 14 games and reached the Super Bowl with him at the center of one of the NFL's best offenses.

That changes what Buffalo has to overcome.

Allen no longer simply needs to outperform developing quarterbacks or unstable situations elsewhere in the division. He is now competing against a Patriots quarterback who has already demonstrated that his team can sustain a full-season run.

The comparison is not purely statistical.

Allen's greatest advantage remains his ability to solve broken plays with either his arm or legs.

Maye's advantage may be the increasingly strong structure New England has built around him.

Adding Moore should help Buffalo attack that balance.

Adding Brown should help New England maintain it.

If Allen clearly remains the best quarterback in the division and Buffalo's supporting cast improves, the Bills should have the strongest route back to first place.

If Maye keeps closing the individual gap, New England's broader case gets much stronger.

Can New England repeat rather than merely remember 2025?

Last season matters.

It does not carry points into this one.

That is the challenge facing New England.

A 14-3 record and Super Bowl appearance establish the Patriots' ceiling. They do not guarantee that the same performance repeats after opponents spend an offseason studying it.

Maye will see more targeted defensive plans.

The Patriots will encounter opponents much more willing to treat them like an established contender rather than a promising young team.

Expectation changes things too.

A slow September after a surprise breakthrough can be tolerated.

A slow September as defending AFC champion immediately creates questions about regression.

That is why New England's offseason additions matter.

Brown and Doubs give the offense new answers. The Patriots have continued building around Maye rather than simply preserving last year's formula.

Vrabel has also challenged the coaching staff to bring new ideas into the existing schemes rather than making wholesale changes to something that already worked.

If those changes work, the Patriots may actually have more room to improve than their 14-win record suggests.

If defenses successfully slow Maye, Buffalo has a clear opening to reclaim the division.

How much does Buffalo's coaching change matter?

Joe Brady is both a new head coach and not really a new offensive presence.

That distinction is important.

Allen already knows Brady's philosophy and terminology, which avoids the normal problem where a franchise quarterback enters camp learning an entirely different offensive system.

Buffalo has nevertheless changed the structure around him.

Brady now controls the whole operation. Carmichael runs the offense. Leonhard runs the defense.

Game management, fourth-down decisions, defensive philosophy and the balance between running the whole team and remaining closely involved with Allen all change.

Leonhard's defense creates another variable.

Buffalo has added Chubb and Gardner-Johnson while retaining Rousseau, Bernard, Oliver and Benford. That gives the new coordinator enough talent to make a real difference rather than simply changing terminology.

If Buffalo becomes more disruptive defensively without losing offensive efficiency, the coaching transition could improve an already strong team.

If the transition costs close games, New England is good enough to punish it.

Can the Jets make this more than a two-team race?

Nine percent is enough to take New York Jets seriously.

It is not enough to erase what happened last season.

The Jets went 0-6 in AFC East games.

That made everything else almost irrelevant.

A team cannot realistically win its division while conceding every direct matchup against the teams it is trying to catch.

Smith, Fitzpatrick and Davis should make New York Jets more experienced immediately. Reich should give the offense a steadier structure. Another year of development across a young roster should raise the overall floor.

But improvement needs to become visible against Buffalo and New England rather than only against teams outside the division.

Even splitting those four games would change the AFC East picture substantially.

Another poor divisional record would keep the Jets on the outside regardless of how respectable the overall record becomes.

The 9% probability essentially asks one question:

Can New York Jets become competitive inside its own division quickly enough for the wider improvement to matter?

How quickly can Miami establish a new offensive identity?

Miami may have the largest range of outcomes in the division.

Achane gives Hafley an obvious starting point.

He can create explosive plays without requiring a quarterback to consistently push the ball downfield, and his receiving ability allows Miami to build offense around him without becoming completely predictable.

Willis adds another rushing threat.

In theory, that can create an offense that forces defenses to account for movement, option concepts and multiple ball carriers on every snap.

In practice, Miami still has to prove it can pass efficiently when opponents take away the first option.

That will decide how difficult the offense is to defend.

The receiver room has been comprehensively reshaped, and Willis is entering his first full season as an NFL starter.

That makes 7% interesting.

Miami has enough explosiveness to make games uncomfortable and enough uncertainty that a surprisingly good Willis season could move the market sharply.

It also has considerably more to prove than Buffalo or New England.

AFC East prediction overview

This still looks like Buffalo versus New England until somebody proves otherwise.

The Bills have the strongest individual foundation in Allen and have strengthened areas around him that needed more help.

Moore gives the offense another proven receiving threat. Chubb and Gardner-Johnson give Leonhard more pieces on defense. Brady's promotion allows Buffalo to make a major organizational change without simultaneously ripping up the quarterback's offensive structure.

That gives the Bills the strongest case.

But New England is much closer than a conventional challenger.

The Patriots won this division last year.

They reached the Super Bowl.

Maye now has Brown and an improved supporting cast around him.

There is no need to imagine a theoretical path where New England suddenly becomes good enough.

It already did.

The question is whether Buffalo's offseason improvements are enough to reverse what happened in 2025.

The Jets should be substantially better if Smith stabilizes the offense and the rebuilt defense takes hold. At 9%, the market now gives that improvement a little more respect.

Miami is earlier in its reset but has enough offensive upside around Achane and Willis to avoid being dismissed completely.

What could move AFC East odds during the season?

The two Buffalo-New England games should be the most obvious drivers.

Last season's standings were separated by only two wins, and both teams enter 2026 with expectations well beyond simply reaching the playoffs.

A head-to-head sweep could become decisive before tiebreakers even enter the conversation.

Quarterback health matters even more.

Buffalo's entire ceiling changes if Allen misses meaningful time.

New England faces the same problem with Maye.

Both rosters can survive injuries elsewhere far more easily than losing the player around whom the offense is constructed.

Maye's early performance will also tell us whether last season represented a new baseline.

If defenses have developed effective answers and New England spends September adjusting, Buffalo's probability should rise.

If Brown immediately gives Maye another level of passing production, that 63%-45% gap could narrow quickly.

For Buffalo, the early signal will be how Brady handles the full head-coaching role and whether Leonhard's defense becomes an improvement rather than simply different.

The Jets can move fastest simply by winning inside the division.

They do not need to jump directly from 9% to favorite. An early victory over Buffalo or New England would remove a result one of the leaders expected to bank while creating evidence that New York's offseason overhaul is translating.

Miami's route is similar.

A strong opening stretch from Willis would force the market to reconsider how large the gap really is between the top two and everyone else.

By December, the equation becomes much simpler.

Division record, conference record and head-to-head results increasingly matter alongside overall wins.

The AFC East may begin as Buffalo versus New England.

The six games those teams play against the Jets and Dolphins could prove just as important as the two they play against each other.

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