Liverpool predictions: Where will Liverpool finish in the 26/27 Premier League?

Liverpool enters the new season looking to recover from a dramatic fall from champion to fifth place. Iraola has replaced Arne Slot, Mohamed Salah is gone after nine years at Anfield, and several parts of the roster are being rebuilt.

Yet Liverpool still has considerable quality in Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Virgil van Dijk, Dominik Szoboszlai and Alisson — giving Iraola enough talent to push the club back toward the top of the table if the new pieces come together quickly.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Liverpool 26/27 season overview

Liverpool starts 2026/27 trying to prove last season was a setback rather than the beginning of a longer decline.

The contrast between its past two campaigns was startling. Liverpool won the Premier League in 2024/25 before falling to fifth in 2025/26 with 60 points, winning 17 of 38 games.

The decline was visible at both ends of the field. Liverpool scored 63 league goals and conceded 53, leaving it with a goal difference of only +10. Arsenal, by comparison, finished 25 points clear of the Reds.

That disappointing title defense brought the end of Arne Slot's tenure, and questions as to whether the title campaign was actually the end of the Klopp era rather than the beginning of a new one.

Liverpool appointed Andoni Iraola in June after three seasons at Bournemouth, where he led the club to sixth place and European qualification following an 18-game unbeaten run in the second half of last season.

He brings promise, but there are a myriad of examples of managers who led mid-table sides successfully failing when they step up to the top echelons of the Premier League: Roy Hodgson, David Moyes, Graham Potter, Thomas Frank, Nuno Espirito Santo, Mark Hughes.

The change on the touchline has been accompanied by major turnover on the field.

Mohamed Salah and Andy Robertson both left after nine seasons at Anfield, while Ibrahima Konaté also departed. Between them, those players represented three pillars of the team that won the Premier League and Champions League during Liverpool's recent era of success.

Liverpool has responded by adding young center-back Jeremy Jacquet, Spain attacker Victor Muñoz and experienced defender Ronald Araujo on a season-long loan from Barcelona.

There are also reasons for optimism among the players already at Anfield.

Dominik Szoboszlai was Liverpool's Player of the Season in 2025/26 after producing 13 goals and a team-high 12 assists across all competitions, while Alexander Isak is approaching the new season fit after an injury-hit first campaign.

Liverpool ended preseason with a 2–0 win over Champions League qualifier Como, with Jacquet scoring on his debut and Araujo also making his first appearance. Iraola said afterward that the team is adapting well but still needs time to build relationships and fully absorb his methods.

That makes Liverpool one of the league's most intriguing variables: a talented roster, but one undergoing significant tactical and personnel change at the same time.

Where will Liverpool finish in the 26/27 Premier League?

Prediction markets for English Premier League champion currently give Liverpool a 13% market-implied probability of winning the 2026-27 Premier League.

This makes Liverpool the third-most likely champion in the current market, behind defending champion Arsenal, at 42%, and Manchester City, at 23%. It means markets believe third is the most likely finishing position for Liverpool this season.

Market data as of August 17. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.

Liverpool's 13% probability actually represents a significant vote of confidence given the scale of last season's disappointment.

The Reds finished fifth with only 60 points — 25 fewer than Arsenal — while conceding 53 goals, more than every team that finished in the top eight apart from Bournemouth.

The argument for a rebound rests partly on the idea that Liverpool's underlying talent is better than last season's results suggested.

Premier League record signing Alexander Isak's first campaign was disrupted by a serious ankle injury that included a fractured fibula and kept him out for almost 16 weeks. Yet even in his 22 appearances he found the net just 4 times. Florian Wirtz also struggled to consistently influence games after his high-profile arrival, while the team rarely had all of its leading attacking options available together.

Iraola's more aggressive, vertical approach could suit those players.

At Bournemouth, his teams played with intensity, pressed aggressively and looked to move the ball into attacking areas quickly. That should theoretically suit Isak's movement and give Wirtz more opportunities to receive the ball closer to goal.

There is also evidence that Isak is entering the season in better condition.

He scored against Monaco earlier in preseason before looking lively in Liverpool's final warm-up against Como, hitting the post and playing 84 minutes as the Reds won 2–0. Iraola has described him as looking sharp.

But the downside risk is considerable.

Liverpool has lost Salah, Robertson and Konaté in the same summer, while the squad does not yet have an obvious proven replacement for Salah's production from the right side.

Salah was not simply another attacker. His departure removes the player around whom Liverpool's offense had been structured for almost a decade.

The defense is also being rebuilt, with Araujo arriving on loan and 20-year-old Jacquet expected to take on significant responsibility after only 37 Ligue 1 appearances.

At 13%, Liverpool remains a credible title outsider — but the market currently sees Arsenal and Manchester City as considerably more likely champions.

The more immediate question may therefore be whether Iraola can turn Liverpool back into a genuine title challenger after last season's sharp regression.

See more Premier League predictions:

• Arsenal 26/27 prediction
• Manchester City 26/27 prediction

What's changed for Liverpool in 26/27?

Andoni Iraola replaces Arne Slot

Liverpool's biggest change is philosophical as much as managerial.

Iraola arrives after steadily improving Bournemouth across three Premier League seasons, culminating in a sixth-place finish and the club's first qualification for European competition.

His teams are typically associated with aggressive pressing, high intensity and quickly attacking space after regaining possession.

That could represent a meaningful change from Liverpool's final season under Slot.

Iraola has already emphasized intensity, intent and energy during preseason, while acknowledging that Liverpool has not yet been able to maintain those levels across entire games.

The potential upside is significant.

Liverpool has several players who should benefit from faster attacking transitions, particularly Isak, Wirtz, Cody Gakpo and Rio Ngumoha.

But introducing those ideas takes time — particularly after a shortened preseason in which several players returned late from the World Cup.

Iraola said after the final preseason game that players are being asked to do things "a little bit different," especially without the ball, and that the squad still needs time to build relationships.

Mohamed Salah leaves an enormous attacking gap

No individual departure changes Liverpool more than Salah.

The Egyptian left Anfield this summer alongside Robertson after nine seasons at the club.

Replacing Salah is not simply a matter of finding another right winger.

For years he was Liverpool's most reliable combination of goals, creativity, availability and attacking gravity. Opponents structured defensive plans around preventing him from receiving the ball in dangerous areas.

That responsibility now has to be distributed across a much younger attack.

Liverpool has added Victor Muñoz, a 22-year-old Spanish forward who produced seven goals and five assists in 34 appearances for Osasuna last season. He is fast, direct and capable of playing in multiple attacking roles.

But expecting Muñoz alone to replace Salah would be unrealistic.

Liverpool continues to be linked with additional attacking reinforcements, particularly wide players, and the composition of Iraola's forward line could still change before the transfer window closes.

How successfully Liverpool replaces Salah's production may be one of the biggest variables in its entire season.

Ronald Araujo and Jeremy Jacquet reshape the defense

Liverpool's defensive rebuild has accelerated following Konaté's departure.

Araujo arrives on loan from Barcelona with more than 200 appearances, three La Liga titles and experience playing both center-back and right-back.

His experience contrasts with Jacquet.

The French defender is only 20 but arrives after breaking into Rennes' first team and making 37 Ligue 1 appearances across three seasons. He is also a France U21 international.

Both impressed in Liverpool's final preseason game.

Jacquet started alongside Van Dijk, scored and drew praise for his defensive and on-ball work. Araujo replaced him at halftime as Liverpool kept a clean sheet against Como.

That was encouraging, but the wider question remains.

Liverpool conceded 53 Premier League goals last season, meaning Iraola needs more than new personnel; he needs to restore the defensive structure of a team that became too easy to play through.

Alexander Isak gets another chance to justify his price tag

Isak's first Liverpool season never developed the way either player or club expected.

After a very slow start, his campaign was interrupted in December by an ankle injury that included a fractured fibula. He required surgery and missed almost four months before returning toward the end of the season.

That makes his second season difficult to judge purely from his first.

Isak has now completed a full preseason build-up and appears to be approaching the new campaign in much better physical condition, after downing tools - to much consternation - for Newcastle last preseason.

He scored against Monaco and played 84 minutes against Como in Liverpool's final preseason game.

His skill set should also suit Iraola. Isak can run behind defensive lines, carry the ball at speed and operate in space rather than functioning only as a penalty-box striker.

If Iraola can build an attacking system that consistently creates those situations, Liverpool may finally see the player it thought it was signing, yet his record suggests he may be susceptible to injuries.

Liverpool needs more from Florian Wirtz

Wirtz's first Premier League season fell below the expectations attached to his arrival.

The German's technical quality remains obvious, but Liverpool struggled to consistently place him in positions where he could dictate attacks.

That is another problem Iraola may be well positioned to address.

A more direct approach should allow Wirtz to receive possession closer to the opposition goal and with runners ahead of him rather than repeatedly asking him to influence slower buildup play.

The challenge is converting potential into production.

Liverpool's title hopes become considerably stronger if Wirtz starts producing the kind of chance creation and final-third influence expected when he arrived.

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Biggest factors that could shape Liverpool's season

Can Iraola fix Liverpool's defense?

The numbers from last season are difficult to ignore.

Liverpool conceded 53 goals in 38 Premier League games. Arsenal conceded 27 and Manchester City 35. Even fourth-place Aston Villa allowed four fewer goals than Liverpool.

That gap represents one of Iraola's biggest challenges.

His Bournemouth teams were aggressive without the ball, but aggression only works when the pressing structure is coordinated. Poor timing can leave enormous spaces behind the first line of pressure.

Liverpool therefore needs to learn Iraola's defensive demands quickly.

There are some encouraging signs. Liverpool ended preseason with a clean sheet against Como, and Iraola specifically praised Jacquet, Araujo and Jeremie Frimpong for their defensive work.

But one friendly does not solve a season-long problem.

Whether Iraola can turn Liverpool into a team that controls games without exposing Van Dijk and the rest of the defense could determine how high it finishes.

Can Liverpool replace Salah's goals and assists?

This is arguably the largest individual question facing the team.

Liverpool has attacking talent, but none of its current forwards has demonstrated Salah's combination of elite scoring and creation over multiple Premier League seasons.

That means the solution will probably need to be collective.

Isak needs to score more. Wirtz needs to create more. Gakpo needs to maintain consistent production. Szoboszlai may need to contribute even more from midfield.

Younger players such as Ngumoha and Muñoz could also take on larger roles.

Liverpool could still add another winger before the transfer window closes, which would materially change the outlook.

Until then, however, Salah's departure leaves a production gap that has not obviously been filled by one player.

Can Alexander Isak stay fit?

The concern around Isak is now less about whether he will start the season and more about whether he can remain available.

His fractured fibula cost him almost four months last campaign and prevented Liverpool from seeing him consistently alongside its other leading attackers.

Preseason has been somewhat positive. Isak has built his minutes gradually and was able to play 84 minutes against Como without an apparent issue.

That is important because Liverpool's other established center-forward, Hugo Ekitike, suffered an Achilles rupture last season and faces his own lengthy recovery.

Liverpool's attacking ceiling is considerably higher with Isak fit. A further extended absence would immediately expose one of the thinner areas of Iraola's roster.

Can Szoboszlai build on his best Liverpool season?

One player enters the new era with considerable momentum.

Szoboszlai was voted Liverpool's 2025/26 Player of the Season, receiving more than two-thirds of the supporter vote. He started all 53 of his appearances and produced 13 goals and 12 assists, the latter the highest total in the squad.

His versatility was also important during an injury-hit campaign, with the Hungarian spending time at right-back as well as midfield.

Under Iraola, that intensity could become even more valuable.

Szoboszlai has the physical capacity to press, carry the ball forward and arrive around the penalty area — qualities that align naturally with a more aggressive, transition-oriented system.

If last season represented a genuine step forward rather than a peak, he could become one of the central players in Liverpool's rebuild.

Does Liverpool have enough squad depth?

This may be the biggest structural concern.

Liverpool is competing in the Premier League, Champions League and both domestic cups while simultaneously replacing several experienced players.

Salah, Robertson and Konaté have gone. Ekitike remains out following an Achilles rupture. Several other players have had disrupted preparation because of injuries or the World Cup.

The new arrivals add options, but there are questions around experience.

Jacquet is 20. Muñoz is 23 and has only one full season of regular top-flight football. Araujo brings considerable pedigree but is joining on loan after a difficult period at Barcelona.

Liverpool still has an excellent core — Alisson, Van Dijk, Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai, Wirtz and Isak among them.

The concern is what happens around that core when injuries and fixture congestion inevitably arrive.

The transfer window therefore remains important to Liverpool's title outlook.

Can Wirtz become the creative centerpiece?

Liverpool does not only need to replace Salah's goals.

It also needs someone capable of consistently organizing and creating attacks.

Wirtz is the obvious candidate.

His first Liverpool season was disappointing relative to expectations, but his age and technical quality mean there is still considerable upside.

Iraola's system could help by increasing the number of situations in which Wirtz receives the ball between midfield and defense with space ahead of him.

If that happens, Liverpool's attack starts to look much more convincing: Wirtz creating, Isak attacking depth, Gakpo and the wide players running around them.

If Wirtz remains peripheral, Liverpool may again struggle to turn possession into enough high-quality chances against stronger opponents.

What could move Liverpool's odds during the season?

Liverpool's prediction-market price can change continuously as traders reassess the title race.

Results will naturally have the largest cumulative effect. Given the 25-point gap to Arsenal last season, a sustained run of wins would provide evidence that Liverpool's 2025/26 decline has been reversed.

Iraola's tactical transition could be particularly influential. If Liverpool quickly looks comfortable pressing and attacking at greater intensity, confidence in its title chances could rise. Continued defensive instability would create the opposite signal.

Isak's fitness and form is another major variable. Liverpool needs its leading center-forward available consistently after his injury-hit first season.

Further transfer activity could materially change the squad. Liverpool continues to be linked with wide attackers as the club looks to replace Salah, and another major signing could strengthen the market's assessment of the roster.

Defensive performance will matter as well. Last season's 53 goals conceded was not compatible with a serious title challenge. Evidence that Araujo, Jacquet and Iraola's tactical changes have solved that weakness could alter expectations quickly.

Wirtz's development could also shift the ceiling of the team. A major improvement from the German would give Liverpool another elite creative player at exactly the moment Salah's departure has created a vacuum.

And Liverpool's probability depends partly on its rivals. Arsenal and Manchester City currently sit well ahead in the title market, so their results can move Liverpool's price even when Liverpool itself does not play.

The current 13% market-implied probability is therefore only a snapshot of how traders assess Iraola's team before the season begins.

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