Arsenal predictions: Where will Arsenal finish in the 26/27 Premier League?
Arsenal begins 2026/27 as defending Premier League champion and the clear prediction-market favorite, with a strengthened squad and a 42% market-implied chance of retaining the title.
Soccer
By Chris Old
The question for Arsenal is no longer whether they can win the league, but whether they can sustain their dominance by retaining the Premier League title for the first time ever. A deeper, more balanced squad leaves them better equipped than last season to handle the demands of another title race.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Arsenal 26/27 season overview
Arsenal begins the new season from a position it has not occupied for more than two decades: defending Premier League champion.
Mikel Arteta's team ended its 22-year wait for the title in 2025/26, finishing seven points clear of Manchester City with 85 points from 38 games. Arsenal won 26 times, scored 71 goals and conceded only 27, giving it the best defensive record in the division. David Raya also collected the Premier League Golden Glove after keeping 19 clean sheets.
The title was only part of an impressive campaign. Arsenal also reached the Champions League final before losing on penalties, underlining how far the squad has progressed from title challenger to one capable of competing deep into multiple competitions.
There has been little sign of Arsenal easing off since. The club added Bruno Guimarães, Christos Tzolis, Piero Hincapié (loan to permanent) and Illan Meslier over the summer, strengthening several areas of an already deep roster.
Guimarães and Tzolis look like the key signings. Guimarães arrives as a proven Premier League controller, while Tzolis joins after 17 goals and 23 assists in his final Belgian league season.
And the first competitive evidence of the new season was emphatic: Arsenal beat Manchester City 3–0 in the Community Shield, with Riccardo Calafiori, Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard scoring as Arteta's team controlled much of the game.
Repeating last season's success is the harder task. Arsenal is now the team rivals are trying to catch, while injuries, World Cup workloads and another demanding European campaign could all influence the title defense.
Where will Arsenal finish in the 26/27 Premier League?
Prediction markets for English Premier League champion currently make Arsenal the clear favorite to retain the Premier League title, with a 42% market-implied probability of finishing as champion.
This makes finishing first the market’s single most likely finishing position for the Gunners.
Market data as of August 17. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
It puts the Gunners well ahead of Manchester City at 23%, with Liverpool at 13% and Manchester United and Chelsea both at 10%.
The gap is significant. Arsenal is not merely one of several contenders entering the new season — traders currently view Mikel Arteta’s side as the most likely champion by a considerable margin.
There is a strong case behind that pricing. Arsenal won the title last season, has kept the core of that team together and strengthened again over the summer. Bruno Guimarães adds another proven Premier League midfielder, while Christos Tzolis gives Arteta greater creativity and goal threat from wide areas.
The main uncertainty is whether Arsenal can reproduce last season’s defensive consistency while William Saliba is unavailable. A compressed summer after the World Cup also adds another variable for a squad expected to challenge deep into multiple competitions.
Meanwhile, their rivals are all largely unknown quantities. Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea all have new managers, while Michael Carrick's tenure at Manchester United was only made permanent in May 2026.
Aston Villa, who have finished in the top 7 each of the last 4 years, qualifying for the Champions League twice, retain the leadership of Unai Emery. Yet financial rules continue to constrain their trajectory, and they had to sell last season's top goalscorer Morgan Rogers this summer.
At 42%, the market still implies that Arsenal is more likely not to win the title than to win it — but no other club currently comes close to its individual probability.
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What's changed for Arsenal in 26/27?
Bruno Guimarães adds another elite midfield option
Bruno Guimarães may be Arsenal’s most significant addition because of what he offers between both penalty areas.
The Brazilian is comfortable receiving the ball under pressure, protecting possession and drawing challenges in congested midfield areas. His ability to win contact and retain the ball can help slow games down when Arsenal needs control, while also creating opportunities to progress possession after opponents commit players toward him.
That skill set complements Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi particularly well. Rather than simply adding another midfielder, Guimarães gives Arteta another player capable of dictating the tempo, resisting pressure and helping Arsenal manage difficult periods without surrendering possession.
He also brings established Premier League output. Despite missing part of last season with a hamstring injury, Guimarães remained the first name on the team sheet for Newcastle when available and contributed goals and assists from central and defensive-midfield roles.
The one warning sign: durability. Guimarães had been remarkably reliable for most of his career, but a hamstring tear kept him out for 14 games last season. After four-and-a-half years and 195 appearances in Eddie Howe’s high-intensity system, there is at least some question over whether that workload could begin to take a toll.
Christos Tzolis strengthens the attack
Christos Tzolis arrives after an exceptional final season at Club Brugge, where he recorded 17 goals and 23 assists in league play — 40 goal involvements and 16 more than any other player in the competition.
His value is not limited to finishing chances. Tzolis can create from open play, operate in tight spaces and provide another set-piece option; almost a third of his assists across all competitions last season came from dead-ball situations.
Arsenal has already seen an early glimpse of that creativity. Tzolis supplied two assists in the 3–0 Community Shield win over Manchester City, combining effectively around the edge of the box rather than simply staying wide and attacking his fullback.
That gives Arteta something slightly different on the left: a winger who can both finish attacks and create them, potentially reducing some of Arsenal’s dependence on Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard for chance creation.
Arsenal has added defensive depth — but lost Saliba for now
Piero Hincapié has joined permanently after spending last season with Arsenal, giving Arteta another option across central defense and left back.
That depth has become more important because William Saliba is facing an extended spell out.
The France international returned from the World Cup with a back injury. Arsenal confirmed in July that surgery was not recommended but said Saliba would require a managed rehabilitation program and would be unavailable for an extended period.
Jurrien Timber has also been working his way back from injury, although his recovery is further advanced.
For a team whose title success was built partly on defensive control, how Arsenal copes without Saliba could be one of the defining early tests of the season.
The champions have largely kept their core together
Just as significant as the new arrivals is who remains.
Arsenal still has Raya, Gabriel, Rice, Ødegaard, Saka, Zubimendi, Gyökeres and most of the core that delivered the title last season.
The more notable departures so far have largely involved squad players, including Trossard, Christian Nørgaard, Jakub Kiwior and Karl Hein.
That continuity gives Arsenal a different starting point from several rivals undergoing larger managerial or roster changes.
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Biggest factors that could shape Arsenal's season
Can Arsenal maintain its defensive standard without Saliba?
Arsenal's defense was one of the clearest foundations of its 2025/26 title.
The team conceded only 27 goals in 38 Premier League games, eight fewer than Manchester City, while Raya kept 19 clean sheets.
Saliba's injury therefore matters beyond simply losing one starting defender.
His pace, positioning and ability to defend large spaces allow Arsenal to play aggressively further up the field. Removing him can affect both the defensive line and the way Arteta structures the rest of the team.
Hincapié, Gabriel, Calafiori and eventually Timber give Arsenal considerable depth, but reproducing last season's defensive numbers without Saliba for an extended period would be a significant achievement.
Does Bruno Guimarães make Arsenal even stronger in midfield?
One of Arsenal's potential advantages this season is the number of different elite-level midfield combinations available to Arteta.
Guimarães joins a group already containing Rice, Ødegaard, Zubimendi, Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze and Ethan Nwaneri.
That creates a selection problem, but it is the kind championship teams generally want.
Guimarães can help Arsenal control possession, progress the ball through pressure and add aggression without relying on Rice to shoulder the same workload every week. His strong Community Shield debut offered an early indication of how naturally he could fit into Arteta's system.
The question may be less whether Arsenal has enough midfield quality and more how Arteta gets the best out of so many options.
Can Arsenal find another level in attack?
Arsenal won the league while scoring 71 goals, six fewer than second-place Manchester City.
That suggests there may still be room for the champions to become more dangerous offensively.
Viktor Gyökeres led Arsenal's Premier League scoring last season with 14 goals, while the addition of Tzolis gives Arteta another direct attacking option.
Saka remains central to Arsenal's creativity and goal threat, but a more balanced contribution across the front line would reduce the consequences of injuries or periods of poor form for any one player.
The 3–0 Community Shield win provided an encouraging early sign: Arsenal scored three times against one of its principal title rivals despite Rice and Saka starting on the bench.
How much does the World Cup affect Arsenal's title defense?
Several Arsenal players went deep into the 26/27 World Cup before returning to club duty with relatively little recovery time. Saliba's injury is the most obvious consequence, while Rice, Saka and Zubimendi were among those given individualized programs before returning to action.
Rice and Saka both looked exhausted even before the World Cup, while the latter only started two of seven games for England before the third-place playoff.
Arteta has said their fitness levels have been encouraging, but the bigger test comes across an entire season.
Physical fatigue does not necessarily show itself immediately. The effect of the compressed summer could become more significant as domestic and European games accumulate.
Arsenal's deeper roster may therefore be one of its most valuable assets.
How quickly do Arsenal's rivals improve?
An Arsenal prediction cannot be separated from what happens elsewhere.
Manchester City finished seven points behind Arsenal last season but has now entered the post-Pep Guardiola era under Enzo Maresca. Manchester United finished third, while Liverpool and Chelsea will expect stronger campaigns than they produced in 2025/26.
There is substantial uncertainty around several of those rivals.
For Arsenal, continuity could therefore be a competitive advantage. Arteta is working with a title-winning core and an established system while several challengers are adapting to significant change.
The other side of that argument is straightforward: Arsenal is now the benchmark, and every major rival has spent the summer trying to close the gap.
What could move Arsenal's odds during the season?
Arsenal's prediction-market price can change continuously as new information affects how traders assess the title race.
Results will naturally have the largest cumulative effect. A sustained winning run can increase Arsenal's market-implied probability, while dropped points — particularly when title rivals are winning — can move it in the opposite direction.
Injuries could be especially significant. Saliba is already unavailable, and extended absences for players such as Rice, Saka, Ødegaard, Gabriel or Raya could change expectations around Arsenal's ability to maintain last season's level. If Arsenal go deep in all four competitions, this could have a large impact.
Player returns can work the other way. Greater clarity around Saliba's recovery or Timber returning to full fitness could strengthen perceptions of Arsenal's defensive depth.
Transfers remain another variable while windows are open. Arsenal has already strengthened significantly, but further major arrivals or departures — either in north London or at a title rival — can change the relative strength of the contenders.
Performance in other competitions may also matter. Deep runs in the Champions League and domestic cups can increase fixture congestion, while an early elimination elsewhere could allow greater focus on the Premier League.
Finally, the performance of Arsenal's rivals is part of the same market. Arsenal can play well and still see its title probability fall if another contender produces an exceptional run.
This is why a season-long prediction market is dynamic: the price reflects the market's latest assessment of the title race rather than a prediction made once in August.
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