Manchester City predictions: Where will Man City finish in the 26/27 Premier League?
Manchester City begins the post-Guardiola era as Arsenal’s closest challenger in prediction markets, with a 23% market-implied probability of winning the 2026/27 Premier League title
Soccer
By Chris Old
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Manchester City enters 2026/27 facing its biggest reset in a decade. Enzo Maresca has replaced Pep Guardiola, Bernardo Silva has departed, Rodri is working his way back from surgery and Elliot Anderson has arrived to refresh the midfield.
City still has Erling Haaland leading an attack that scored more Premier League goals than any other team last season, but the question is whether a squad accustomed to Guardiola’s methods can adapt quickly enough to challenge Arsenal again.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Manchester City 26/27 season overview
Manchester City begins the new season in unfamiliar territory.
For the first time since 2016, Pep Guardiola will not be in the dugout. Guardiola stepped down after 10 years in charge, leaving as the most successful manager in the club's history with 20 major trophies. Former City coach Enzo Maresca has returned to succeed him on a three-year deal.
City did not surrender its place among England's elite in Guardiola's final season.
The team finished second in the 2025/26 Premier League with 78 points, seven behind Arsenal. City scored 77 goals — the most in the division — while conceding 35.
There was silverware too. City beat Arsenal to win the Carabao Cup before defeating Chelsea 1–0 in the FA Cup final, completing a domestic cup double in Guardiola's final campaign.
Erling Haaland remained the team's most reliable source of goals. He scored 27 times in the Premier League to claim his third Golden Boot in four seasons, finishing 2025/26 with 38 goals and nine assists in 52 appearances across all competitions.
But the summer has brought significant change.
Captain Bernardo Silva and long-serving defender John Stones have departed alongside Guardiola, while City has added England midfielder Elliot Anderson and promising winger Jeremy Monga. Phil Foden and Joško Gvardiol are among the core players to have signed new contracts.
The first competitive result of the Maresca era was less encouraging. Arsenal beat City 3–0 in the Community Shield, with City generating only 0.8 expected goals and struggling to consistently bring Haaland and Foden into the game. Maresca acknowledged afterward that there were "many things" still to improve.
Where will Manchester City finish in the 26/27 Premier League?
Prediction markets for English Premier League champion currently make Manchester City the second-most likely team to win the Premier League, with a 23% market-implied probability of finishing as champion.
This makes finishing second the market’s single most likely finishing position for the Citizens
Market data as of August 17. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
It leaves City some distance behind Arsenal at 42%, but ahead of Liverpool at 13% and Manchester United and Chelsea, both at 10%.
The market therefore sees a relatively clear top two: Arsenal as favorite, with Manchester City its closest challenger.
A 23% probability still means traders currently consider City more likely not to win the league than to win it. But no team outside Arsenal comes close to City's individual title probability.
There are good reasons why City remains highly rated.
They finished second last season, scored more Premier League goals than any other team and still have Haaland leading an attack containing Foden, Jérémy Doku, Antoine Semenyo and other established international players. Haaland alone scored 27 league goals last season.
City has also strengthened an aging midfield with Elliot Anderson, one of the Premier League's standout two-way midfielders last season. The 23-year-old played every league game for Nottingham Forest, completed 104 tackles — fourth-most in the competition — and covered 411 kilometers, with only one Premier League player covering more ground.
The uncertainty is whether all of those pieces come together as quickly under Maresca as they did under Guardiola.
The 3–0 Community Shield defeat showed that there may be an adjustment period. Rodri is also recovering from back surgery, and linked with a move to Barcelona or Real Madrid, while the departure of Bernardo removes one of City's most reliable players for controlling possession and navigating high-pressure matches.
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What's changed for Manchester City in 26/27?
Enzo Maresca replaces Pep Guardiola
No change matters more than the manager, especially when it concerns Per Guardiola.
Guardiola's 10 seasons transformed Manchester City, producing 20 major trophies and making sustained title challenges the expectation rather than the ambition.
Maresca is not arriving as a complete outsider.
He previously coached City's Elite Development Squad before joining Guardiola's senior staff during the 2022/23 Treble-winning season. He therefore knows the club, its academy and many of the principles that shaped Guardiola's team.
But inheriting Guardiola's squad is very different from assisting him, while his time at Chelsea may have raised more questions than answers.
Maresca has already acknowledged that the current City squad is significantly different from the one he previously worked with. His task is not simply to preserve Guardiola's system, but to establish his own version of possession football while managing a squad undergoing considerable turnover.
The 3–0 Community Shield loss to Arsenal provided an early reminder that the transition may not be seamless.
Elliot Anderson adds energy to City's midfield
Elliot Anderson is City's most significant summer signing so far.
The England midfielder arrives after an outstanding 2025/26 season for Nottingham Forest, combining exceptional physical output with increasingly influential possession play.
Anderson covered 411 kilometers in the Premier League last season, the second-highest total in the competition, and made 104 tackles, ranking fourth among all players. He also missed just one Premier League game across his two seasons at Forest.
Anderson brings ball-winning, running power and the ability to progress possession rather than operating purely as a defensive midfielder. City's own assessment describes him as combining tough tackling with creative passing and an ability to contribute both in and out of possession.
He could become particularly important while Rodri works his way back to full fitness.
Anderson started the Community Shield and provided one of City's better creative moments with an inviting first-half cross for Haaland, but his integration into Maresca's midfield will take time.
Bernardo Silva leaves a significant gap
City is not only adapting to a new manager.
Bernardo Silva has left after nine seasons, during which he won 20 major trophies and became one of the most important players of Guardiola's era. He was also club captain during his final season.
Replacing Bernardo is difficult because his value was never limited to goals or assists.
He could play centrally or wide, resist pressure, retain possession and help City control games when opponents pressed aggressively. Those qualities became particularly valuable in the biggest matches.
Anderson adds fresh energy to midfield, while Foden and others may take on greater creative responsibility, but City enters the new season without one of its most trusted game-management players.
Rodri begins the season working back from surgery
Rodri's availability remains another major variable.
City confirmed in July that the midfielder underwent minor back surgery after experiencing discomfort and would require a period of rehabilitation.
Rodri has since returned to the club, but Maresca indicated before the Community Shield that he was still beginning his rehabilitation.
That makes Anderson's arrival more important, but the two players offer different qualities.
At his best, Rodri provides positional control, passing range and defensive security that allow the rest of City's team to operate aggressively around him.
How quickly he returns to full fitness — and whether he can maintain it across a long season — could have a significant influence on City's title chances.
Meanwhile the World Cup winner has been linked with moves to Barcelona and Real Madrid, which would leave another big gap in the City midfield.
City has retained much of its attacking core
Despite the changes elsewhere, the attacking foundations remain strong.
Haaland stays at the center of the team after another Golden Boot season, while Foden has signed a new contract through 2030 and Gvardiol has extended through 2031.
Jérémy Doku also remains an important attacking outlet, while Antoine Semenyo enters the season after scoring the goal that won City the FA Cup final.
Maresca therefore inherits plenty of established quality.
The question is whether he can build the same level of collective control around it that City routinely possessed under Guardiola.
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Biggest factors that could shape Manchester City's season
How quickly does City adapt to Maresca?
This may be the defining question.
Guardiola controlled almost every aspect of City's football identity for a decade. Even a successor with similar possession principles will inevitably change details around buildup, pressing, positioning and player responsibilities.
Maresca has history at City and worked as part of Guardiola's staff during the Treble season, which should reduce some of the cultural adjustment.
But the Community Shield showed the difference between familiarity and immediate execution.
City conceded after only 24 seconds and struggled to consistently create high-quality chances despite recording 12 attempts. The team finished with only 0.8 xG in the 3–0 defeat.
One game is far too small a sample to judge Maresca, but City's ability to absorb his ideas quickly could determine whether it keeps pace with Arsenal from the start.
Can Elliot Anderson reshape City's midfield?
Anderson offers something City increasingly needs: energy without sacrificing technical quality.
His 104 tackles and 411 kilometers covered last season underline his ability to operate across large areas of the field, while his passing gives Maresca a midfielder capable of contributing to buildup rather than merely breaking up play.
That could become especially valuable in a team that has lost Bernardo and is temporarily without a fully fit Rodri.
The challenge will be adapting from Forest to a City team that is typically expected to dominate possession and face deeper defensive blocks.
Anderson's ability to influence matches when there is less open space may ultimately matter more than the physical numbers that made him stand out at Forest.
Can Haaland maintain his extraordinary scoring level?
The most predictable part of City's attack remains Erling Haaland.
He scored 27 Premier League goals last season, five more than the next-highest scorer, and finished with 38 goals across all competitions. It was his third Premier League Golden Boot in four seasons.
His presence gives City an enormous advantage: even during periods when the team is not playing at its best, Haaland can turn limited opportunities into goals.
The more interesting question is whether Maresca can build an attack that creates consistently enough around him.
City struggled to do that against Arsenal in the Community Shield. Haaland had chances, but Arsenal largely prevented City from producing the volume of high-quality opportunities normally associated with the Norwegian.
If Maresca can maintain Haaland's scoring while improving the service around him, City should remain firmly in the title race.
Who replaces Bernardo's control in big games?
Bernardo's departure could become most noticeable when City is under pressure.
For years, Guardiola could rely on the Portuguese midfielder to receive the ball in tight areas, escape pressure and help City regain control of difficult matches.
There is no obvious like-for-like replacement.
Foden can provide more attacking creativity. Anderson adds physicality and progression. Rodri offers deeper control when fit. Doku provides direct running from wide areas.
But none replicates Bernardo's entire skill set.
How Maresca distributes those responsibilities could be particularly important against Arsenal, Liverpool and other teams capable of aggressively pressing City's buildup.
Has Arsenal opened a genuine gap?
City finished seven points behind Arsenal last season.
The Community Shield then provided an uncomfortable first direct comparison of the new campaign, with Arsenal winning 3–0 and looking significantly more settled.
That does not mean the competitive gap will remain the same across 38 league games.
Arsenal has its own injury and workload concerns, while City still has time to complete further transfer business. Maresca said before the Community Shield that the club could add another one or two players before the window closes.
But the current prediction-market gap — 42% for Arsenal against 23% for City — shows traders believe the defending champion enters the season in the stronger position.
City's ability to close that gap is likely to define its first season after Guardiola.
What could move Manchester City's odds during the season?
Manchester City's prediction-market price can change throughout the season as traders respond to new information.
Results will naturally have the largest cumulative effect. Strong runs can increase City's market-implied probability, while dropped points become particularly costly if Arsenal or another rival is consistently winning.
Maresca's adaptation could be especially important early in his tenure. Evidence that City has quickly established a stable tactical identity may increase confidence in its title chances, while continued inconsistency could have the opposite effect.
Rodri's fitness and future is another major variable. A successful return from back surgery could strengthen City's midfield considerably, while setbacks, further absences or a departure to La Liga would increase uncertainty.
Haaland's availability and scoring form will remain highly influential. He has been City's dominant goalscorer for four seasons, meaning any sustained absence would materially change expectations around the attack.
Transfers could also move the market. Maresca has indicated that City may still complete further business, while significant departures could alter the squad before the window closes.
Performance in other competitions matters too. City won both domestic cups last season and regularly competes deep into Europe, creating the potential for another demanding schedule.
And, as with Arsenal, City's probability is partly determined by what its rivals do. A strong City run may not produce the same market movement if Arsenal is matching it result for result.
That is why the 23% figure should not be viewed as a fixed preseason prediction. It represents the market's current assessment of City's championship chances and can change substantially as the season develops.
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