Who will win the Premier League? Prediction and odds
Arsenal have strengthened their position as Premier League title favorites after the opening weekend, with prediction markets now giving the defending champions a 52% market-implied probability of retaining the trophy.
Soccer
By Chris Old
The Premier League is back. After three months away and a memorable World Cup in between, you almost forget the chasm it leaves behind.
Not for long after a weekend like that.
Manchester United, fancied as outside title contenders before a ball was kicked, were mauled by The Tigers (Hull City) — a team many pundits had near the bottom of their preseason predictions. Tottenham, after a summer splurge approaching £300m, were stung 3–0 by The Bees (Brentford).
Newcastle, priced as more likely to go down than seriously challenge at the upper end of the table, were only denied against Liverpool by a controversial 99th-minute penalty.
Liverpool themselves looked vulnerable for long periods. Manchester City were hardly convincing either, requiring goals in the 84th and 91st minutes to turn a 1–0 deficit against Bournemouth into three points.
Aston Villa, already weakened by a summer of major departures, were hammered 4–0 by Brighton. Arsenal were the exception: the defending champions swept Coventry aside 3–0 without allowing the promoted side a meaningful foothold in the game.
With Chelsea still to play their opener against Fulham, the first weekend has already given prediction markets plenty to digest.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Who will win the 2026/27 Premier League?
Prediction markets for English Premier League Champion 2026/27 currently make Arsenal clear favorites, with Manchester City the nearest challenger.
- Arsenal 52%
- Manchester City 20%
- Chelsea 10%
- Liverpool 10%
- Manchester United 6%
Market data as of August 24. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
The most striking number is Arsenal’s.
Before the season, the champions were priced at 44%. They are now at 52%, moving above the halfway mark after a weekend in which they looked every inch the defending champions while several supposed rivals stumbled.
One round of games should not dictate a 38-match season, but markets respond to new evidence, and opening weekend supplied plenty.
City got the result but needed a dramatic late turnaround. Liverpool escaped Newcastle with a point after being pushed hard throughout. Manchester United and Tottenham were comprehensively beaten.
Arsenal, meanwhile, won 3–0 and barely allowed Coventry into the contest. Coventry did not register a touch in Arsenal’s box during the first half, while Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard all scored.
The title race has barely begun, but the early hierarchy is already clearer.
Premier League 26/27 predictions:
- Manchester City 26/27 prediction
- Arsenal 26/27 prediction
- Liverpool 26/27 prediction
- Manchester United 26/27 prediction
- Chelsea 26/27 prediction
- Aston Villa 26/27 prediction
1. Arsenal
Current title probability: 52%
Arsenal were favorites before the season. Opening weekend strengthened the case.
Their 3–0 win over Coventry was not dramatic because it never needed to be. Arsenal controlled the game from the beginning, scored twice inside 23 minutes and were able to manage minutes later in the second half.
That followed a 3–0 Community Shield victory over Manchester City. Two competitive games. Six goals scored. None conceded.
More importantly, Arsenal already look capable of winning in familiar ways while carrying greater depth than last season.
Christos Tzolis has added another attacking option and impressed again against Coventry. The squad was strong enough for Mikel Arteta to make changes without the performance collapsing, despite William Saliba being unavailable and Bruno Guimarães missing the opener with a minor groin problem.
The move from 44% before the season to 52% now is therefore about more than one easy home win.
Arsenal were already defending champions. The first evidence of 2026/27 suggests they may be deeper too. There is an obvious warning against getting carried away: Coventry are newly promoted, and harder tests arrive quickly.
But Arsenal have started by doing exactly what overwhelming title favorites are supposed to do: make the pack chase.
2. Manchester City
Current title probability: 20%
City are still the obvious alternative to Arsenal.
Their opening game showed why the market is reluctant to put them much closer.
For 83 minutes against Bournemouth, Enzo Maresca’s first Premier League game in charge was heading toward defeat. Marcus Tavernier gave Bournemouth the lead in the first half, and City produced a largely flat attacking performance until Rayan Cherki came from the bench and helped transform the game.
Marc Guéhi equalized in the 84th minute. Josko Gvardiol won it in stoppage time.
A crucial win, but how you get one matters just as much.
City remain packed with elite players and have more than enough quality to turn a difficult opening afternoon into the beginning of a title challenge. A team capable of winning badly is not exactly a weakness.
But this is also a new managerial era, with significant changes to a side that already finished behind Arsenal last season. The current 20% pricing therefore feels less like a dismissal of City and more like recognition of the gap they still have to close.
They survived Bournemouth, but the next question is whether they can start controlling games again.
3. Chelsea
Current title probability: 10%
Chelsea are the awkward one for now because their season has not started yet.
They face Fulham on Monday night and remain level with Liverpool at 10%, making them joint-third in the current title market.
There is plenty of intrigue.
Xabi Alonso has taken charge after Chelsea finished only 10th last season, and the summer has brought another significant reshaping of the squad. Morgan Rogers and Maxence Lacroix are among the arrivals, while experienced players have also been added to a group previously built heavily around youth. Chelsea also have no European campaign to manage.
That last point could be key.
Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool will all have substantial demands outside the Premier League. Chelsea have more full weeks available for coaching, recovery and preparation.
But 10% already prices in a fairly dramatic rebound from last season. We will know a little more after Fulham: for now, Chelsea’s position says the market sees far more upside in the rebuild than last season’s league table would suggest.
4. Liverpool
Current title probability: 10%
Liverpool got a point at Newcastle. They were fortunate to leave with it.
Newcastle led twice and were denied victory only when Dominik Szoboszlai converted a penalty in the 99th minute. Liverpool looked disjointed for stretches, conceded twice on the break and struggled to control a game that became increasingly chaotic.
Control is exactly what Liverpool need to rediscover under Andoni Iraola.
The squad still has enormous quality. Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai should give Liverpool enough attacking talent to hurt virtually anybody.
Yet question marks remain over the quarter of a billion outlay on Wirtz and Isak. And Newcastle exposed some of the risks in the new setup.
Liverpool conceded two fast-break goals in the same Premier League game for the first time since the opening day of the previous season.
One difficult away game should not rewrite a title prediction, but it does reinforce why Liverpool sit at 10% rather than alongside Arsenal and City.
They have the talent to close that gap, but they need to look much more settled doing it.
5. Manchester United
Current title probability: 6%
No supposed contender had a worse opening weekend. Hull beat United 2–0, and there was little fluky about it.
Semi Ajayi and Nobel Mendy scored in the first half as the promoted side repeatedly exploited United’s problems at set pieces and through a midfield that never established control. Hull became the first side in their Premier League history to beat Manchester United.
The reaction in the market has been significant. United were at 10% before the season. They are now down to 6%.
That is still a meaningful title price after one defeat, which reflects the wider optimism that surrounded Michael Carrick’s work last season and the investment made over the summer.
But Hull challenged several of the assumptions behind it. Youri Tielemans and Andrey Santos were supposed to give United greater midfield control. Instead, the new-look unit struggled badly. Defensive absences did not help, but United also lacked cohesion and attacking sharpness.
There are 37 games left. That makes talk of a title challenge being “over” fatuous.
But United have immediately placed themselves in the position of needing to prove that Hull was an aberration rather than evidence that the rebuild remains much less complete than the preseason optimism suggested.
Who else could enter the Premier League title race?
There is a sizeable gap between the five leading teams and everybody else.
That does not mean the rest of the league should be ignored. Opening weekend was a useful reminder of how dangerous several supposedly secondary teams can be.
Tottenham
Current title probability: 3%
Few teams entered the season with a bigger gap between last year’s performance and this year’s expectations.
Tottenham finished 17th last season, then spent more than £200 million rebuilding the squad around Roberto De Zerbi.
Their first competitive evidence was awful. Brentford won 3–0, Tottenham finished the weekend at the bottom of the table, and their expensive new additions struggled to impose themselves. It was Spurs’ heaviest opening-day defeat since 2009.
The 3% title price still reflects the theoretical upside of the rebuild. At the moment, theory is doing a lot of work.
Newcastle United
Current title probability: around 1%
Newcastle may have taken more encouragement from a draw than several teams did from victory.
They pushed Liverpool throughout Sunday’s 2–2 game, led twice and were seconds away from winning before conceding the late penalty.
More interestingly, they did it with a young, reshaped side under Matthias Jaissle.
Anthony Elanga scored early, Joe Willock restored Newcastle’s lead later and Yoane Wissa caused Liverpool problems in transition. The performance was aggressive and coherent enough to suggest Newcastle may be considerably more competitive than some preseason expectations implied.
A 1% title price is still exactly what it sounds like: a very distant championship outcome. But Newcastle looked more like a team capable of disrupting the leading group than one preparing for trouble at the other end of the table, especially if the final days of the transfer window see more activity: Nico González is rumored to be a deal nearing completion.
Brighton
Current title probability: around 1%
Brighton produced one of the weekend’s clearest statements. They beat Aston Villa 4–0, with Villa already four goals down before halftime.
That does not suddenly make Brighton realistic champions. It does make them relevant to the title conversation in another way.
If Brighton are capable of dismantling recent Champions League-level opponents, visits from Arsenal, City, Liverpool and Chelsea are not routine points.
The strength of the teams immediately below the traditional contenders matters because title races are often decided by who drops the fewest unexpected points. Brighton have already shown they can create some.
Brentford
Current title probability: around 1%
Brentford deserve the same acknowledgment.
A 3–0 win over Tottenham was not a smash-and-grab result. They dominated a team that had invested heavily over the summer and could even have won by more, with Igor Thiago missing a penalty.
Again, the point is not that Brentford should suddenly be considered likely champions. They should be considered dangerous.
For the leading teams, there may be fewer comfortable weekends in this league than preseason projections suggested.
What about Aston Villa?
Villa started the season in the broader chasing group after finishing fourth and winning the Europa League last year.
Their opening result was brutal. Brighton beat them 4–0 after a summer in which several major players departed, and questions continue around Ollie Watkins’ future. The defeat was severe enough to raise an immediate question over how quickly Unai Emery can rebuild a side that had become accustomed to competing near the top.
Villa should not be written off after one afternoon. But for now, they look even further away from the title conversation than they did a few weeks ago.
See more prediction markets
What could move Premier League title odds next?
The temptation after opening weekend is to treat everything as revelation.
Some of it will turn out to be noise.
Hull may have produced the performance of their season. Tottenham’s new players may take time to settle. Liverpool could look completely different after another few weeks under Iraola. Manchester City still won despite playing poorly.
And Arsenal will eventually have afternoons considerably harder than Coventry at home.
The first major variable is Chelsea. Their opener against Fulham will either strengthen the case behind that 10% title probability or leave another supposed contender immediately answering questions.
The transfer window is another. Several squads are still unfinished, and one significant signing or departure can alter the outlook quickly. Manchester United are already under pressure to address weaknesses exposed by Hull, while other clubs remain active after a World Cup summer that disrupted the usual preseason rhythm.
Then comes the schedule. Arsenal face Aston Villa and Chelsea in their next two league games before traveling to Sunderland and Brighton. The champions will not have long to enjoy their opening-night comfort.
By five or six games, we will have much better evidence about which opening-weekend performances were meaningful. For now, the market’s first verdict is clear.
Arsenal have strengthened their grip on favoritism. Everyone else has given us considerably more to argue about.
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