Tottenham Hotspur predictions: Where will Spurs finish in the 26/27 Premier League?

Tottenham enters the new season attempting one of the Premier League’s biggest turnarounds. Spurs finished 17th for a second consecutive year, but have since invested heavily in Sandro Tonali, Mateus Fernandes and Jan Paul van Hecke while adding experienced defenders Andy Robertson and Marcos Senesi.

De Zerbi now has a significantly stronger squad and no European campaign to manage, leaving the market to decide whether Tottenham can jump from survival battle to genuine contender in a single season.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Tottenham Hotspur 26/27 season overview

Tottenham begins 2026/27 from an extraordinary starting point.

Spurs finished 17th in the 2025/26 Premier League with 41 points, winning only 10 of 38 games. They scored 48 goals, conceded 57 and avoided relegation by just two points ahead of West Ham.

It was Tottenham’s second consecutive 17th-place finish and another domestic campaign far below the level expected of a club with its resources. The season also featured considerable managerial instability. Thomas Frank was dismissed in February, Igor Tudor took temporary charge and Roberto De Zerbi was appointed in March, initially tasked with ensuring Spurs remained in the Premier League.

He achieved that objective, and the summer has brought a much more ambitious phase of the rebuild.

Tottenham signed Sandro Tonali from Newcastle, Mateus Fernandes from West Ham and Jan Paul van Hecke from Brighton, while Andy Robertson and Marcos Senesi arrived on free transfers.

Tonali is the headline arrival. The Italy midfielder made 110 appearances for Newcastle and arrives with Premier League, Champions League and international experience. De Zerbi has described him as a player he followed for years, while Tottenham’s sporting director highlighted his combination of technical quality, intelligence and energy.

Yet for his lofty £100m fee fans will be asking whether they get bang for their buck in an age of punitive financial restrictions.

Fernandes represents another major midfield investment. The 21-year-old has already played regularly for Southampton and West Ham, and De Zerbi specifically highlighted his ability to receive under pressure, progress the ball and combine technical quality with intensity.

The defense has been rebuilt too. Van Hecke arrives after starting 36 Premier League games for Brighton last season and completing more than 2,500 passes, the second-highest total in the division. Senesi made more than 2,300 passes for Bournemouth and led all outfield players for completed long passes with 182, while Robertson brings extensive title-winning experience.

There is also a major scheduling advantage: Tottenham has no European football this season after finishing 17th. That gives De Zerbi significantly more training and recovery time than Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Aston Villa.

Preseason has reinforced some of the optimism. Spurs remained unbeaten through their early preparations and beat Chelsea 2–1 in Sydney despite playing most of the second half with 10 players. Tonali scored his first Tottenham goal, while Richarlison struck the winner in stoppage time.

The central question is therefore unusually stark: how far can a team improve in one summer when the manager, midfield, defense and schedule all change at once?

Where will Tottenham finish in the 26/27 Premier League?

Prediction markets for English Premier League champion currently give Tottenham Hotspur a 3% market-implied probability of winning the 2026/27 Premier League title.

That suggests a sixth-place finish, which would be a remarkable bounce from their 17th finish the past two seasons.

Market data as of August 18. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.

The market position, putting them within shot of Champions League qualification, is striking given what happened last season.

Spurs finished 17th with 41 points, surviving relegation only on the final day. They were 44 points behind champion Arsenal and 24 points behind fourth-place Aston Villa. Yet traders currently place Tottenham ahead of Villa in the title market.

That suggests the market is putting substantial weight on the scale of Tottenham’s summer investment and the possibility that last season significantly understated the team’s underlying potential.

There is a plausible case. Tonali immediately raises the level of midfield. Fernandes adds another press-resistant player capable of progressing possession. Van Hecke and Senesi are both proven Premier League defenders suited to De Zerbi’s build-from-the-back approach, while Robertson adds experience and leadership.

The coaching fit matters too. De Zerbi has built his reputation around possession structures designed to draw opponents forward before playing through pressure.

Van Hecke already knows that system from Brighton, while Tottenham’s two major midfield signings appear specifically suited to receiving and progressing the ball in congested areas.

There is also no European schedule to drain the squad, which gives Spurs more recovery time and more full training weeks than most of the clubs currently priced ahead of them.

The caution is obvious. Teams do not usually move from 17th to Champions League qualification in a single year.

Tottenham conceded 57 goals last season and lost 17 league games. Even a dramatic improvement would still require Spurs to close enormous gaps to Arsenal, City and the rest of the top five.

The attack also remains less certain than the midfield. Richarlison scored 11 league goals last season, Tottenham’s highest total, but Spurs do not currently have an established scorer approaching the output of Haaland, Watkins or Arsenal’s leading forwards.

Sixth in the market reflects a belief that the scale of the rebuild could produce one of the league’s biggest year-on-year improvements; a return to the European places looks like the realistic test of whether the market’s optimism is justified.

See more Premier League predictions:

• Arsenal 26/27 prediction
• Liverpool 26/27 prediction
• Manchester City 26/27 prediction
• Manchester United 26/27 prediction
• Chelsea 26/27 prediction
• Aston Villa 26/27 prediction

What's changed for Tottenham in 26/27?

Sandro Tonali transforms the midfield

Tonali is Tottenham’s most significant signing. The Italy international arrives after 110 appearances for Newcastle, where he became one of the Premier League’s leading central midfielders and helped the club win the 2025 League Cup.

His value is not limited to one phase of the game. Tonali can progress possession, play through pressure, cover large spaces and contribute aggressively without the ball. That combination should make him particularly valuable in De Zerbi’s midfield.

The tactical fit is important. De Zerbi wants midfielders comfortable receiving possession with opponents close to them. The objective is often to invite pressure before breaking through it and creating space further forward.

Tonali has the awareness and technical quality to play that way. He also changes Tottenham’s experience level.

At 26, he arrives with Serie A, Premier League, Champions League and international experience and should immediately become one of the central figures in the team.

For a midfield that lacked consistency last season, that represents a major upgrade.

Yet Newcastle fans will tell you that the team looked much weaker without Bruno Guimarães than when Tonali was missing, while the BBC reported Tonali saying, "We had decided to come back to Italy, but it was impossible for the money" before he decided to join Spurs. Tottenham will hope the player is committed to the cause.

Mateus Fernandes gives Spurs another press-resistant midfielder

Fernandes is the younger part of Tottenham’s midfield rebuild.

The Portugal international joined from West Ham after two seasons of regular Premier League football. During his first season in England with Southampton, he ranked inside the league’s top 10 for duels won across his 36 appearances and contributed two goals and four assists.

De Zerbi’s assessment is particularly revealing. He described Fernandes as comfortable under pressure, capable of progressing the ball and willing to make things happen in difficult moments.

Those attributes are exactly what Tottenham needs if it is going to build attacks through central areas rather than simply playing around pressure. Fernandes also gives Spurs something Tonali cannot provide alone: depth.

With Rodrigo Bentancur, Pape Matar Sarr and Archie Gray still available, Tottenham suddenly has several credible midfield combinations rather than relying heavily on one or two players.

De Zerbi has rebuilt the defense for possession

Tottenham’s defensive recruitment has a clear tactical pattern. Van Hecke and Senesi are both experienced Premier League center backs, but their value with the ball appears almost as important as their defensive output.

Van Hecke completed more than 2,500 Premier League passes last season, second-most in the competition, and already worked under De Zerbi at Brighton.

Senesi offers a similar ability to progress possession. He completed more than 2,300 passes last season and no Premier League outfield player completed more long passes than his 182. He also ranked inside the league’s top three for interceptions, blocks and clearances.

That is a useful combination for De Zerbi. His teams ask central defenders to take responsibility for starting attacks while remaining comfortable defending large spaces when possession is lost.

Tottenham now has Van Hecke, Senesi, Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero and Kevin Danso competing centrally. After conceding 57 league goals last season, the expectation should be substantial improvement.

Andy Robertson adds experience to a young squad

Robertson is a very different type of signing from much of Tottenham’s recent recruitment.

The 32-year-old joined after nine seasons with Liverpool, during which he won the Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and League Cup. That experience matters for a team trying to change its habits after two consecutive 17th-place finishes.

Robertson himself acknowledged that Tottenham’s recent league performances had fallen well below expectations and spoke about the determination within the squad to avoid another similar campaign.

His role may extend beyond simply competing at left back. De Zerbi now has a player familiar with title races, European knockout football and the demands of maintaining a high standard across an entire season.

For a squad with several younger players, that could be valuable even if Robertson is not expected to start every game.

De Zerbi finally gets a full preseason

Tottenham appointed De Zerbi in March, during a relegation battle. His immediate job was therefore survival rather than building his ideal team.

The summer changes that.

De Zerbi now has his own signings, a full preseason and considerably more time to establish his possession structure before competitive games begin. The early signs have been positive.

Tottenham went unbeaten through its first preseason fixtures and beat Chelsea with 10 players in Sydney. De Zerbi specifically spoke afterward about the importance of changing the habits created by poor results over the previous two seasons.

That may be the most important change of all. The club has bought better players, but the biggest improvement will come if those players begin operating within a coherent system rather than another transitional one.

See more prediction markets

• Premier League games
• Premier League futures
• Soccer games
• Soccer futures
• All sports
• Live now

Biggest factors that could shape Tottenham's season

Can De Zerbi turn a 17th-place team into a European contender?

This is the central question. Tottenham is not trying to move from fifth to fourth.

It is trying to move from 17th into the upper reaches of the Premier League in one season. That is an enormous jump.

But there are reasons this may not be a normal 17th-place team. Spurs has spent heavily on established Premier League players, several important existing players remain in the squad and De Zerbi took charge only during the final two months of last season.

The current team therefore looks substantially different from the one responsible for most of the 41-point campaign. De Zerbi has also already demonstrated his ability to elevate a team in England. At Brighton, he delivered the club’s highest-ever Premier League finish and its first European qualification.

Tottenham gives him greater resources. The difficult part is expectation. After the scale of the summer spending, simply avoiding another relegation battle will not be enough.

The market’s 3% title probability implies traders already see Tottenham as something closer to a European contender than a bottom-half team.

How much do Tonali and Fernandes raise Tottenham's ceiling?

Tonali and Fernandes may determine how ambitious Tottenham can realistically become. Last season’s midfield often struggled to control games consistently.

If Tonali and Fernandes establish a strong partnership, Spurs could become substantially more difficult to press than last season.

That would have consequences beyond midfield. More secure buildup should allow the attacking players to receive possession in better areas and reduce the number of dangerous transitions Tottenham concedes after losing the ball.

Can the rebuilt defense cut out last season's mistakes?

Tottenham conceded 57 league goals last season, fewer only than the relegated bottom three among several teams around them.

That cannot continue if Spurs is serious about climbing the table. Van Hecke and Senesi should help.

Both were regular Premier League starters last season and both rank highly in possession metrics, while Senesi also produced elite defensive volume in interceptions, blocks and clearances.

Micky van de Ven has also signed a new contract and remains one of Tottenham’s most physically gifted defenders.The concern is structural.

De Zerbi’s football can place considerable responsibility on defenders when opponents break the first line of pressure. Improvement therefore depends not only on better center backs, but on the midfield and press protecting them properly.

If Tottenham significantly reduces the number of transitions it concedes, the defensive numbers could improve quickly.

Where do enough goals come from?

This may be the largest weakness in Tottenham’s title argument. Richarlison was Tottenham’s leading Premier League scorer last season with 11 goals, while the team scored only 48 in total.

Those numbers are a long way from title level. De Zerbi has improved the midfield and defense substantially, but further attacking recruitment may still be required.

Mohammed Kudus remains part of the squad, while Dejan Kulusevski is expected back after injury and Mathys Tel offers further upside. But Tottenham currently lacks a proven elite scorer.

That does not prevent a large improvement in league position, but it does make Champions League qualification a taller order.

A major forward signing before the window closes could materially improve the outlook.

Does no European football become Tottenham's biggest advantage?

Tottenham’s 17th-place finish created one important benefit.

Spurs has no European campaign in 2026/27. For De Zerbi, that is particularly useful.

His system relies heavily on rehearsed positioning and patterns of buildup, so full training weeks may be more valuable to Tottenham than to teams with more settled coaches. It also reduces the physical workload.

Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Aston Villa will all have European fixtures to manage alongside domestic competition. Tottenham can dedicate more recovery and preparation time to the Premier League.

Chelsea has a similar advantage, which makes the comparison between the two rebuilding London clubs particularly interesting. For Spurs, fewer fixtures also mean greater ability to use a concentrated core of players without needing the depth required by Champions League teams.

Can Tottenham fix its home form?

One of the more remarkable features of recent Tottenham seasons has been how little advantage the club has extracted from its stadium.

A team attempting to climb toward the European places cannot routinely drop points at home against lower-half opposition.

De Zerbi specifically spoke during preseason about changing the habits created by the previous two seasons and putting greater emphasis on winning duels, second balls and games.

The stronger midfield should help Tottenham control more home matches. Tonali and Fernandes give Spurs players capable of breaking through organized defensive blocks rather than relying purely on transitions.

If Tottenham turns its home ground back into a reliable source of points, the jump up the table could be significant even before considering improvement away from home.

Can Spurs finally find some stability?

There is another variable beneath all the tactical changes: continuity. Tottenham has changed coaches repeatedly.Last season alone involved Frank, Tudor and De Zerbi.

That makes it difficult to build a consistent identity. The club has now given De Zerbi a long-term contract and recruited players clearly suited to his preferred style.

Van Hecke already understands his football. Tonali and Fernandes were personally endorsed by him. Senesi specifically cited the appeal of De Zerbi’s possession-based approach.

For once, the manager and recruitment strategy appear closely aligned. If Tottenham allows that structure time to develop, the improvement could extend beyond one season.

What could move Tottenham's odds during the season?

Tottenham’s prediction-market probability can change significantly because the current 3% title price contains substantial uncertainty.

Results under De Zerbi will naturally matter most. Tottenham begins from a very low base, so a strong opening run could quickly change perceptions of how much the squad has improved.

Tonali’s influence may be particularly important. If Tottenham’s record signing immediately gives the midfield greater control, the summer investment will look considerably more convincing.

Defensive performance is another major variable. Spurs conceded 57 Premier League goals last season. A sharp reduction would provide evidence that Van Hecke, Senesi and the wider tactical changes are working.

Attacking recruitment could materially alter the ceiling of the team. Tottenham has strengthened heavily elsewhere but still lacks a proven high-volume scorer. A major forward arrival would address one of the clearest remaining weaknesses.

Richarlison’s form and availability will matter if no striker arrives. His 11 league goals made him Tottenham’s leading scorer last season, and Spurs needs more consistent production from its central forwards.

The absence of European football may become more significant as the campaign develops. Spurs should have more recovery and training time than most of the teams above it in the market.

Performances from rivals matter too. Tottenham is currently priced at 3%, just ahead of Aston Villa at 2%, but far behind Chelsea and Manchester United at 10%. If Tottenham improves while one or more of those higher-priced teams struggles, the gap could narrow considerably.

Important information

Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG). Crypto.com | Derivatives North America uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.

Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.