Tottenham Hotspur predictions: Where will Spurs finish in the 26/27 Premier League?
Tottenham have invested more than £300 million in Roberto De Zerbi's rebuild, but prediction markets have cooled slightly on Spurs after a difficult start to a season that still carries potential upside.
Soccer
By Chris Old
Tottenham entered 2026/27 attempting one of the Premier League's most ambitious turnarounds.
Two consecutive 17th-place finishes were followed by a huge summer rebuild. Sandro Tonali, Mateus Fernandes and Jan Paul van Hecke arrived to reshape the spine of the team, while Andy Robertson and Marcos Senesi added Premier League experience.
Then Spurs went back into the market.
Sávio and Omar Marmoush have transformed De Zerbi's attacking options, taking Tottenham's summer spending beyond £300 million and leaving a squad that bears little resemblance to the one that spent the previous two seasons fighting near the bottom of the table.
The early results have been considerably less impressive. Tottenham opened the league season with defeats against Brentford and Newcastle and are still waiting for their first Premier League goal.
That does not make the summer optimism irrelevant. It does make the question around Spurs more interesting.
The talent has arrived. Now De Zerbi has to turn it into a team.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Tottenham Hotspur 26/27 season overview
Tottenham begin this season from an extraordinary base.
Spurs finished 17th in the 2025/26 Premier League with 41 points, winning only 10 of 38 games. They scored 48 goals, conceded 57 and avoided relegation by two points.
It was their second consecutive 17th-place finish and another domestic campaign well below expectations. Thomas Frank was dismissed in February, Igor Tudor took temporary charge and De Zerbi arrived in March with survival as the immediate priority.
The summer has been about something much bigger.
Tonali arrived from Newcastle as the headline midfield signing. Fernandes adds another player comfortable receiving and progressing possession under pressure, while Van Hecke already understands the demands of De Zerbi's buildup from their time together at Brighton.
The defense has been reinforced by Senesi and Robertson, while Spurs have since added two proven attacking threats in Sávio and Marmoush.
Marmoush offers particularly useful flexibility. De Zerbi has said he can operate as a center forward or in a more attacking No. 10 role, giving Tottenham another source of pace and goals through the middle.
Sávio brings something slightly different: direct running, one-on-one ability and width. He made an immediate impression by scoring on his debut in the Carabao Cup.
Those additions were necessary.
Tottenham's first two league games have produced no goals, and injuries have limited several of the attacking players De Zerbi inherited. Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert face long recoveries from ACL injuries, Dejan Kulusevski is still working his way back from a long-term knee problem, while James Maddison and Mohammed Kudus have also been managing fitness issues.
Spurs therefore look much stronger on paper than they did last season.
Whether that strength can be turned into results quickly enough is now the central question.
Where will Tottenham finish in the 26/27 Premier League?
Prediction markets for English Premier League champion currently give Tottenham Hotspur a 2% market-implied probability of winning the 2026/27 Premier League title.
That has fallen from 3% before the season began.
It still suggests they can turn a poor start around and could be in the mix of teams chasing a European spot.
Market data as of August 31. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
The movement is understandable.
Tottenham were beaten 3–0 by Brentford before losing 2–0 at home to Newcastle, leaving a team built to make one of the league's biggest year-on-year improvements without a point or goal from its opening two league games.
The performances do require some distinction. Brentford was poor. Spurs struggled physically, lost too many duels and rarely looked capable of imposing De Zerbi's football on the game.
Newcastle was an improvement. Tottenham created enough opportunities to lead during a much stronger first half and finished with 17 attempts.
Newcastle looked a threat on the transition, as they had done against Liverpool, and eventually won 2-0. There will be less tough examinations to come.
And there is therefore more going on than the five goals conceded and zero scored suggest.
The wider concern is how quickly Tottenham's confidence and structure disappeared once Newcastle took the lead. De Zerbi has acknowledged that establishing the right mentality may be the biggest challenge of the rebuild, particularly after two seasons of poor results.
A 2% title probability still makes Tottenham an outsider rather than dismissing them entirely.
That feels appropriate.
The squad is stronger enough to make another relegation battle difficult to envisage on talent alone. But closing the enormous gap between 17th and the Champions League places requires more than buying better players.
For now, a return to the European places remains a much more realistic measure of a successful Tottenham season than a genuine title challenge.
Tonali remains Tottenham's most significant central-midfield addition.
The Italy international arrived after 110 appearances for Newcastle, bringing Premier League, Champions League and international experience to a midfield that struggled to control games consistently last season.
His tactical fit remains compelling.
De Zerbi wants players comfortable receiving possession with opponents close to them, inviting pressure before breaking through it and finding space further forward. Tonali can receive, progress the ball and cover large areas without possession.
The early weeks have also shown that simply buying that profile does not produce instant control.
Tonali is still building fitness after a disrupted preseason and struggled against his former club as Newcastle's Lewis Miley and Nico González increasingly took command after halftime. De Zerbi has publicly called for patience while the midfielder adapts to a new team and reaches full condition.
The longer-term argument has not changed. If Tottenham are going to become a De Zerbi team in more than name, Tonali should eventually sit near the center of it.
Yet Newcastle fans will tell you that the team looked much weaker without Bruno Guimarães than when Tonali was missing, while the BBC reported Tonali saying, "We had decided to come back to Italy, but it was impossible for the money" before he decided to join Spurs. Tottenham will hope the player is committed to the cause.
Mateus Fernandes gives Spurs another press-resistant midfielder
Fernandes is the younger part of the midfield rebuild.
The Portugal international has already played regularly in the Premier League and gives De Zerbi another midfielder willing to receive possession in crowded areas rather than simply moving the ball around pressure.
That becomes especially valuable when opponents press high.
Tottenham want to tempt teams toward the ball and then exploit the spaces left behind. Fernandes and Tonali were recruited in part because they can help Spurs play through that first wave rather than abandoning the buildup at the first sign of pressure.
The challenge is balance.
Tottenham also need enough protection behind those combinations to avoid exposing their defense whenever possession is lost.
That relationship between midfield control and defensive security may ultimately matter more than either player's individual numbers.
Sávio and Omar Marmoush change the attack
This is the biggest change from the original Tottenham outlook.
Spurs no longer enter the season wondering whether another major attacking signing will arrive.
They have added two.
Sávio gives De Zerbi a winger capable of isolating fullbacks and attacking them directly. Marmoush adds pace, movement behind the defense and the ability to play centrally or from a supporting attacking position.
That significantly raises Tottenham's attacking ceiling.
It also makes the failure to score in the opening two league games less useful as a forecast for the entire season.
Marmoush only arrived before the Newcastle game and was making his debut. Sávio was unavailable for that match after his midweek debut. Kudus has only just returned toward contention, while several other attackers remain injured or short of full fitness.
The more relevant question is what Tottenham's attack looks like once De Zerbi can actually build around those players.
There are now enough options.
Finding the right combinations is the next problem.
De Zerbi has rebuilt the defense for possession
Van Hecke and Senesi were not simply recruited to defend Tottenham's box.
Both are comfortable taking responsibility in possession, which is central to the way De Zerbi wants his teams to play.
Van Hecke already knows the system. Senesi provides similar progression from deeper areas, while Micky van de Ven's pace gives Spurs another way of protecting the larger spaces that can appear behind an aggressive possession structure.
Pedro Porro and Van de Ven have also returned toward fitness after missing the beginning of the campaign.
There have nevertheless been five league goals conceded already.
Again, the numbers need context. Newcastle scored with both of their shots on target, while the Brentford performance was much more concerning because of how often Tottenham were second-best in individual duels.
Better defenders should help.
The bigger job is making sure Tottenham do not continually ask those defenders to solve problems created higher up the pitch.
Andy Robertson adds experience to a changing squad
Robertson represents a different kind of recruitment.
After nine years with Liverpool, he brings experience of Premier League title races, Champions League knockout football and the standards required to sustain a challenge across an entire season.
That matters in a squad still trying to rid itself of the habits created by consecutive 17th-place finishes.
Robertson has already been heavily involved, and his experience may become particularly valuable if the early results continue to test the confidence of a side filled with new combinations.
For Tottenham, his influence should extend beyond simply competing for minutes at left back.
Biggest factors that could shape Tottenham's season
Can De Zerbi turn investment into a coherent team?
This has become the defining question.
Tottenham have changed the manager, midfield, defense and attack at enormous expense. That does not mean all of those pieces automatically fit together.
De Zerbi himself has acknowledged that changing the squad and changing the mentality are not the same task. After the Newcastle defeat, he stressed that Tottenham may need time to find the balance and confidence he wants.
There were glimpses against Newcastle of what the football might eventually look like. Spurs created chances through sustained possession and were able to push a strong opponent back for long spells.
The collapse after conceding showed the other side.
This is still a team learning how to react when a game moves against it.
That will not be solved in the transfer market.
Can Sávio and Marmoush solve Tottenham's goal problem?
Over the summer questions were posed as to where enough goals would come from.
Tottenham have now spent heavily trying to answer it.
Sávio and Marmoush join Kudus, Mathys Tel, Dominic Solanke and Richarlison among De Zerbi's senior attacking options, with Maddison and eventually Kulusevski capable of adding creativity behind them.
On talent, that is a dramatically stronger group. The problem so far has been availability and cohesion.
Tottenham's attacking players have arrived at different stages of preparation, while several have spent long periods injured. Marmoush was effectively dropped straight into the starting XI against Newcastle days after signing.
De Zerbi now has speed, dribbling, movement and several players who can operate between positions.
The question is no longer whether Tottenham possess enough attacking talent. It is how quickly he can make it function together.
Can Tottenham control games without exposing the defense?
This is where the midfield and defensive rebuild meet.
De Zerbi's football deliberately invites pressure.
When it works, opponents commit players forward and Spurs can play through them into valuable attacking space.
When it fails, Tottenham can lose possession with players already spread across the pitch.
Tonali, Fernandes and Van Hecke should all improve the first part of that equation. Van de Ven's recovery pace helps with the second.
But the opening weeks have shown that control remains fragile.
Brentford made Spurs uncomfortable through aggression and duels. Newcastle survived Tottenham's best spell before becoming increasingly dangerous once the game opened up.
Tottenham do not need to abandon De Zerbi's risk.
They need to become much better at managing it.
How much difference can the returning attackers make?
Tottenham's summer spending can obscure another potential source of improvement.
Several important existing players have barely been available.
Kudus is returning after a lengthy absence. Maddison is being carefully managed after his serious knee injury and more recent shoulder problem. Kulusevski continues his recovery from a long-term knee issue. Xavi Simons and Odobert face much longer spells out.
Not all will return quickly.
But Spurs should eventually have more attacking depth than De Zerbi has been able to use during the opening weeks.
That matters over 38 games more than the lineup available on any one August afternoon.
Does no European football become Tottenham's biggest advantage?
Tottenham have no European campaign this season.
For a manager trying to teach a complicated positional system to a heavily rebuilt squad, that may become increasingly valuable as the season develops.
Full training weeks give De Zerbi more time to work on buildup patterns, pressing, defensive positioning and the relationships between a large number of new players - all of which could be critical with a new group.
There is also less physical strain.
Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and Aston Villa all have European commitments alongside the domestic calendar.
Tottenham do not.
The benefit may not be obvious in August, but it could become much more important by November and December.
Frank, Tudor and De Zerbi all coached the team last season.
The squad has subsequently been rebuilt again.
Now there is further uncertainty around some existing players, with De Zerbi confirming after the Newcastle game that Richarlison and Kevin Danso had asked to leave if acceptable deals could be found.
Some churn is inevitable after two seasons near the bottom.
Eventually it has to stop.
Van Hecke knows De Zerbi's football. Tonali and Fernandes were signed specifically for it. Sávio and Marmoush give the attack profiles the coach wanted.
For the first time in a while, Tottenham have the chance to build around one clear football idea.
The size of the improvement may depend on how long they are willing to let that idea develop.
What could move Tottenham's odds during the season?
Tottenham's current 2% title probability reflects both the scale of the rebuild and the amount that still has to be proven.
Results will naturally matter most.
Two defeats do not define a 38-game season, but a team trying to climb from 17th cannot allow a difficult opening to become another prolonged run of poor results.
The attack should provide some of the earliest evidence.
Sávio and Marmoush have changed the options available to De Zerbi. Kudus is returning, while Maddison and Kulusevski could add further creativity as their fitness improves. If Tottenham start converting the chances they created against Newcastle, the opening goal drought will quickly look less significant.
Midfield control is another major variable.
Tonali was bought to raise Tottenham's level immediately, but De Zerbi has acknowledged that he still needs time and fitness. A settled Tonali-Fernandes structure could change both how Spurs attack and how effectively they protect the defense.
The final squad will matter too. Tottenham have already undergone one of the Premier League's largest summer rebuilds, and departures could still change the depth available in several positions.
Beyond that, the most important evidence will be whether De Zerbi can produce consistency.
Tottenham have enough individual quality to look significantly better than a 17th-place team.
Now they need to stop looking like one often enough for the table — and the market — to believe it.
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