Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest prediction and odds
Prediction markets make Liverpool 65% favorites at home, but Forest's transition threat targets the midfield imbalance that undermined Andoni Iraola's opening game.
Soccer
By Chris Old
Liverpool needed a 99th-minute penalty to draw 2-2 at Newcastle in Iraola's first Premier League game, while Oliver Glasner's Forest have opened with two defeats to Leeds and no goals.
Liverpool have the better players, but the complication is tactical: Iraola's attacking midfield left too much space around Ryan Gravenberch when possession changed hands.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest match snapshot
- Date: Saturday, August 29, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:30 PM BST / 7:30 AM ET
- Competition: Premier League, Matchweek 2
- Liverpool win: 65%
- Draw: 20%
- Nottingham Forest win: 15%
What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Prediction markets currently make Liverpool 65% favorites for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest, with the draw at 20% and a Forest win at 15%.
Market data as of August 26. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
Liverpool deserve clear favoritism. They have the stronger squad, home advantage and far more individual quality in the final third. Forest have also made an unconvincing start under Glasner: a 1-0 league defeat to Leeds was followed by a 2-0 loss to the same opponents in the Carabao Cup. Two competitive games, no goals.
But 65% leaves room for resistance. Liverpool's 2-2 draw at Newcastle exposed a problem whenever their press was bypassed. Both Newcastle goals came from quick attacks after Liverpool lost the ball, and the Gravenberch-Szoboszlai-Wirtz midfield did not control the spaces behind the first pressure.
That matters against Forest. Their route is not sustained possession; it is defending in a 3-4-2-1, releasing wingbacks and attacking the space around Liverpool's advanced fullbacks. The possible arrival of Liam Delap would add a more physical runner through the center, although his transfer and eligibility were not confirmed as of August 26.
Liverpool should create enough to win. The question is whether Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz can turn territory into goals before Forest find a transition moment. Isak scored only four times in 22 appearances during an injury-disrupted first Liverpool season, and neither he nor Wirtz converted at Newcastle. After that game, Jamie Carragher questioned whether the quarter of a billion outlay on the two players could make Liverpool's 2025 summer window the worst in Premier League history.
The assessment is a Liverpool win, but not a routine one. Forest's poor start supports the favorite's price; Liverpool's midfield balance and recent home record in this fixture explain why the market stops short of overwhelming favoritism.
Premier League 26/27 predictions:
- Liverpool 26/27 prediction
- Manchester City 26/27 prediction
- Arsenal 26/27 prediction
- Manchester United 26/27 prediction
- Chelsea 26/27 prediction
- Aston Villa 26/27 prediction
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest odds
- Liverpool win — 65%
- Draw — 20%
- Nottingham Forest win — 15%
The market gives Liverpool a substantial edge without pricing this as a formality.
The draw sitting above a Forest win is telling. Forest's more plausible route is to keep the game compressed and exploit isolated transitions; winning outright would also require an attack that has yet to score under Glasner to become much more efficient.
Liverpool team news
Iraola began with a 4-3-3 at Newcastle, using Gravenberch at the base with Szoboszlai and Wirtz ahead of him. Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez pushed high from fullback, increasing the recovery burden on the midfield when attacks broke down.
The main selection question is Alexis Mac Allister. He returned late after the World Cup and replaced Wirtz after 63 minutes at Newcastle. Starting him would give Liverpool a more natural controller next to Gravenberch, but Iraola would then have to move Wirtz higher or leave out an attacker.
Jérémy Jacquet started on his competitive debut alongside Virgil van Dijk, while Ronald Araújo made his first appearance from the bench. Araújo's recovery speed could be useful against Forest's direct attacks, though changing the pairing would interrupt continuity after one league game.
Isak is expected to lead the line. His first Liverpool season produced four goals and one assist in 22 appearances, and he was largely absent on an acrimonious return to his old home.
Nottingham Forest team news
Glasner used a 3-4-2-1 in the league opener, with Dan Ndoye and James McAtee behind Igor Jesus. The system is familiar from his Crystal Palace work: wingbacks provide the width and two narrow attackers carry transitions. The problem is execution. Leeds restricted Forest to isolated moments in the 1-0 league defeat, then won 2-0 in the cup three days later.
Ousmane Diomande and Xaver Schlager both started the cup tie after beginning the league game on the bench. Diomande competes with Murillo, Nikola Milenković and Jair Cunha for three center-back places. Schlager offers more defensive discipline in midfield and may be the more useful change for this matchup.
Forest have agreed a deal worth up to £50 million for Delap, but the transfer and registration are not yet complete. If he becomes eligible, a bench role may be more plausible than an immediate start after almost no preparation with his new teammates. Delap scored once in the league last season after injuries disrupted his Chelsea campaign; he would improve Forest's physical options more immediately than he resolves their finishing.
See more prediction markets
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest key matchup factors
Can Liverpool control the space behind their press?
Newcastle's opening goal began with Liverpool losing possession high up the pitch; the second came from another fast break. If Wirtz and Szoboszlai advance together while the fullbacks are high, Gravenberch can be left protecting too much ground.
Forest do not need to dominate midfield to exploit that. One clean pass into Gibbs-White or Ndoye could be enough to turn Liverpool's territorial control into a defensive sprint.
Does Mac Allister start, and where does that leave Wirtz?
Mac Allister is the clearest internal solution. Moving Wirtz into the attack at a winger's expense could improve control without removing a gifted creator, yet Iraola tends to favor willing runners on the wing. The manager's decision will reveal how seriously he views the Newcastle warning.
Can Isak and Wirtz make Liverpool's superiority count?
Liverpool's 65% price assumes their attacking quality eventually tells. Isak can occupy the outside center backs and Wirtz can find the gaps beside Forest's central midfield, but reputation is doing a lot work until the output arrives. Neither have looked great at unpicking a low block.
Forest are likely to concede territory. If Liverpool's two major attacking investments remain wasteful, the 20% draw becomes much easier to understand.
What would Delap add if he is available?
Delap would add aggressive running, contact with center backs and the ability to chase channels when the first clearance is imperfect. That is useful against a high line. His presence on the teamsheet would matter; his sharpness would remain uncertain.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head
Recent meetings make the 65% price more interesting. Forest won the last two league games at Liverpool, 1-0 in September 2024 and 3-0 in November 2025. The second came through compact defending, set-piece threat and direct running once Liverpool's pressure was broken.
Liverpool won 1-0 at Forest in February 2026 through a 97th-minute Mac Allister goal. Across the last five league meetings, each side have won twice and one game has been drawn.
The managers and squads have changed, so that record is not a forecast by itself. It does show that Forest's 15% price is not purely theoretical—and that Liverpool have repeatedly found this opponent harder to control than the talent gap implies.
What could move Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest odds before kickoff?
The Liverpool midfield is the biggest confirmed-lineup variable. Mac Allister starting would address the control problem seen at Newcastle; another Gravenberch-Szoboszlai-Wirtz combination would preserve more attacking talent but also more transition risk. Araújo replacing Jacquet would change the defensive calculation behind it.
For Forest, completion and registration of Delap's transfer is the obvious live development. Confirmation that he is eligible—and especially that he starts—would give the market a new attacking variable to price. Glasner's choice between Schlager and a more creative midfielder, plus whether Diomande enters the back three, could also affect how credible Forest's resistance looks.
Important information
Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG). Crypto.com | Derivatives North America uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.
Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.