What moves NFL football prediction markets during a season?
Learn what moves football prediction market prices during a season, from injuries and roster changes to schedule strength, standings, and the playoffs.
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By Sam Bloomquist
Every game matters in an NFL season. There’s very little wiggle room for not meeting expectations and one loss in September can put you in a tough spot come playoff time.
With just 17 games on the schedule, every contest is under a microscope and fans are ready to overreact to every little detail. That’s why NFL prediction markets can move so much during a season. It goes beyond wins and losses though. There’s a long list of situations that can move a market throughout the season, and we’ll visit each one in this article.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is a football prediction market?
An NFL prediction market allows traders to take a position on a singular game, the results of a team through the entire season, or the statistics a player accrues during the year.
There’s game-to-game markets, where you can trade on the point spread, player props, or total points in the game, and there’s season-long markets where you can take positions on who will win the championship, their division, or make the playoffs.
A season-long contract will move slower than the single game markets, as it’s a compilation of factors a team faces throughout the 17-game season.
Maybe your squad loses on a last second field goal or rattles off a couple early season wins that no one saw coming. Maybe they make a trade for an All-Pro caliber player before the deadline. All these things play a role on how a team is rated and what the expectations are in the market. It moves everything from their individual game spreads to their NFL playoff chances.
The displayed percentages for each team represents a market-implied probability at that moment rather than a guarantee of what will happen. A trade happens when you disagree with the market-implied probability and take a position on whether or not it will happen.
Playoff qualification and the likely postseason path.
Not all factors are weighted the same for a team. One trade won’t make or break a team’s season. Some players getting injured impact a team more than others.
It’s up to you, the trader, to decide how much these factors should move the market and how you should react to news as it comes out during the year.
How do injuries affect football prediction markets?
NFL injuries are part of the game. In a game where gigantic men run into each other at full speed is bound to yield dozens of injuries per week.
Some positions matter more than others. For example, a quarterback injury will almost always loom larger than any other position. An injury could also pave the way for a dark horse backup player to come in and show they can make a difference.
The quarterback is the more essential role in an NFL offense. If the starting quarterback goes down, the drop-off to the team’s backup is almost always a significant downgrade.
They are a part of every single play in the season, and having continuity and security at that position is the most important thing for a team. But, just because a quarterback goes down doesn’t mean the season is necessarily over.
Not all injuries are the same. Many times, a player can tear their ACL or their Achilles tendon and that’s almost certainly the last time you’ll see them that season. But other injuries, like a low grade hamstring strain or sprained ankle can mean that they’ll miss just a handful of games.
There’s a wide array of resources available, like football injury reports, to research specific injuries and the timetable for that player’s return.
The injury impact is also influenced by the team’s depth and causes them to make NFL roster changes. If they have five starter-caliber cornerbacks and one goes down, you won’t see a steep fall off right out of the gate. But a “cluster injury,” where several players of the same position get hurt, can mean the team is significantly impacted by the injuries.
Why do winning and losing streaks move prices?
Pro football chances are made by their team ratings and preseason expectations. When the players finally take the field, both are subject to change.
A team was expected to struggle coming out of the gate and knocked off a couple opponents who made the playoffs last season will see their rating go up. A team who was expected to be a contender that loses to what’s viewed as lesser competition will see their rating go down. It’s up to the traders to decide if these changes in ratings are deserved or not.
Since there are only 17 games in an NFL season, each result is weighed heavier than a sport like basketball or baseball where there’s 80 to 162 games in a season. The margins for error are much thinner, and each result will carry consequences down the line.
Each winning or losing streak has its own context in the season. A team could be reaching a soft part of their schedule and rattling off a couple wins. They could also be dropping games they should have won. Weigh each situation on its own before taking a position in the market rather than assigning a boilerplate approach to each streak.
They are event contracts set for individual games and season-long predictions for teams as they navigate the NFL season. Traders can buy and sell contracts to express their view.
How do NFL prediction markets work?
Traders can take positions on the results of specific games, the point spread, how many points will be scored, and player props. In season-long markets, you can take positions on a team to win the championship, their division, or make the playoffs.
How do injuries impact NFL market prices?
Injuries change the rating of a team depending on the severity of the injury and the recovery time. It also tests a team’s depth at that position.
How is strength of schedule calculated in the NFL?
Strength of schedule is calculated by taking the combined winning percentage of each opponent on a team’s schedule from the previous season.
What does strength of schedule mean in NFL?
NFL strength of schedule is a rating given to each team to predict how difficult it will be to win games in that season.
How can the playoff picture affect NFL prediction market prices?
The playoff picture can show which teams have an inside track in making it to the postseason and who is on the outside looking in.
What can cause a football prediction market price to change during a season?
Injuries, trades, winstreaks, losing streaks, lineup changes and strength of schedule.
Important Information: Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG) Crypto.com | Derivatives North America and uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.
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