Newcastle United vs Liverpool prediction and odds

Newcastle and Liverpool begin 2026/27 with significant change on both sides. Matthias Jaissle has replaced Eddie Howe after Newcastle finished 12th last season, while Andoni Iraola takes charge of his first competitive Liverpool game following the Reds’ fifth-place finish.

The match also provides an acrimonious reunion for Alexander Isak, who returns to St James’ Park as a Liverpool player after an injury-hit first season at Anfield, having gone on strike to force a move in the summer of 2025.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool match snapshot

• Date: Sunday, August 23, 2026
• Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. BST / 11:30 a.m. ET
• Venue: St James’ Park, Newcastle
• Competition: Premier League, Matchweek 1
• Newcastle win: 26%
• Draw: 24%
• Liverpool win: 51%

Liverpool won both Premier League meetings last season, beating 10-man Newcastle 3–2 at St James’ Park, with a last-minute winner, before a 4–1 victory at Anfield in January.

Newcastle’s last win against Liverpool came when they lifted the 2025 League Cup, but the Magpies have, remarkably, not beaten Liverpool in the Premier League since 2015.

What is the prediction for Newcastle United vs Liverpool?

Prediction markets for Newcastle vs Liverpool currently make Liverpool the favorite with a 51% market-implied probability of winning Sunday’s game.

Newcastle is priced at 26%, while the draw is at 24%.

Market data as of August 18. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.

The market therefore gives Liverpool an edge, but not an overwhelming one.

At 51%, Liverpool is the only individual outcome priced above 50%, while Newcastle and the draw collectively account for almost half of the market pricing.

There is a strong football case behind Liverpool’s position. The Reds won both league meetings last season and enter the opener with considerably more proven attacking quality.

Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai remain part of the creative core, while Isak has completed a full preseason after the fractured fibula that disrupted his first Liverpool campaign. He scored against Monaco earlier this month and has said his fitness is improving with each appearance.

Liverpool also ended preseason positively, beating Como 2–0 at Anfield. Iraola has described the team as moving in the right direction, although he has also acknowledged that Liverpool has not yet consistently maintained the intensity he wants across entire games.

Newcastle’s uncertainty is greater. Jaissle has been in charge for less than three weeks and inherited a midfield that no longer includes Bruno Guimarães, who joined Arsenal after winning Newcastle’s Player of the Year award last season. Guimarães had led Newcastle with nine Premier League goals and eight assists despite missing 15 games through injury.

Newcastle has also undergone substantial squad turnover and used preseason to integrate several younger additions. Jaissle himself has described the situation as a transitional period and said further tactical adjustments will take time.

But St James’ Park remains an uncomfortable place to begin a season, and Newcastle showed in last year’s 3–2 defeat that they can disrupt Liverpool at home. The Magpies were reduced to 10 men in that game, fought back from 2–0 down and only lost to Rio Ngumoha’s goal in the 10th minute of stoppage time.

Liverpool are favorites, but a 51% market-implied probability reflects the uncertainty surrounding two teams beginning new managerial eras.

Newcastle’s home advantage and Jaissle’s aggressive approach should make this considerably less straightforward than commentators might observe.

Premier League 26/27 predictions:

• Arsenal 26/27 prediction
• Liverpool 26/27 prediction
• Manchester City 26/27 prediction
• Manchester United 26/27 prediction
• Chelsea 26/27 prediction
• Aston Villa 26/27 prediction

Newcastle United vs Liverpool odds

The current OG prediction market prices the three match outcomes as:

Liverpool win — 51%

Liverpool is the market favorite after winning both Premier League meetings last season.

Newcastle United win — 26%

The market gives Newcastle roughly one quarter of the displayed probability despite home advantage.

Draw — 24%

A draw is priced only slightly below a Newcastle win, illustrating how closely the market views the two non-Liverpool outcomes.

The market has remained relatively stable around Liverpool favoritism, with the current chart showing Liverpool holding close to the 50% level while Newcastle and the draw have traded in the mid-20s.

Prediction-market prices can change before kickoff as traders respond to team news, injuries and confirmed starting lineups.

Newcastle United team news

Newcastle begins the season in the early stages of a major transition.

Jaissle was appointed head coach on August 5 after three years with Al-Ahli. His teams have generally been built around aggressive pressing, vertical attacks and quick transitions, giving Newcastle some continuity with the high-intensity football associated with the club under Howe.

The personnel is considerably different. Captain Bruno Guimarães left for Arsenal after 195 Newcastle appearances, removing the club’s reigning Player of the Year and one of its principal sources of goals, assists and midfield control.

Young midfielder Aladji Bamba has arrived from Monaco and featured regularly during preseason, while Bazoumana Touré and several other young players have also joined. Goalkeeper Lukáš Horníček was signed from Braga after keeping 12 league clean sheets last season.

Meanwhile, right-back Amar Dedić was confirmed this Tuesday and is likely to start in the absence of Tino Livramento.

The question will be what first XI Jaissle picks, having had relatively little time to assess the squad, and whether any late transfer activity may shift the selection.

The manager favors a 4-2-3-1 system with a double pivot and No. 10. This means we could see both William Osula and Yoane Wissa start, while Jaissle has Lewis Miley, Aladji Bamba, Joe Willock, Sean Steur and Jacob Ramsey to choose from in central midfield. Ramsey could also be an option at No.10 or on the left wing.

Joelinton has been ruled out injured.

Liverpool team news

Liverpool also starts the season under a new head coach.

Iraola replaced Arne Slot in June after leading Bournemouth to sixth place and European qualification last season. His first competitive Liverpool game will be Sunday’s trip to Newcastle.

The biggest individual storyline is Isak’s return to St James’ Park.

After downing tools to force a move to the reigning champions, a move that enraged football fans and pundits alike, his first season at Liverpool was nothing short of a disaster. It was disrupted by an ankle injury and fractured fibula suffered in December, however in the 22 appearances he made he only found the net 4 times.

The Swede is sure to receive an incendiary reception.

Yet he did score 54 goals in 86 Premier League appearances for the Magpies, and this preseason has been more encouraging. Isak scored against Monaco and has gradually increased his minutes, while Iraola said last week that the striker looked sharp.

Florian Wirtz and Ryan Gravenberch have also built fitness after returning later following the World Cup.

Alexis Mac Allister was Liverpool’s final major World Cup returnee and only recently resumed training, meaning his readiness for the opening game may require more careful management than some of his teammates.

He is among a number of Argentinians who may receive frosty welcomes across English stadiums this season.

Liverpool has also strengthened defensively with Ronald Araujo joining on loan from Barcelona. The Uruguay international brings more than 200 Barcelona appearances and gives Iraola another experienced option at center back or right back.

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Newcastle United vs Liverpool key matchup factors

Can Newcastle's rebuilt midfield handle Liverpool's press?

This may be the most important tactical question.

Newcastle no longer have Guimarães controlling central areas and instead must ask several younger players to adapt quickly to Jaissle’s methods.

That would be challenging against any opponent. Liverpool under Iraola makes it particularly relevant.

Iraola wants his teams to play aggressively without the ball and has emphasized greater intensity and front-foot pressing throughout preseason. Liverpool defender Milos Kerkez said the team is being asked to run more and play more aggressively than last season.

If Newcastle can play through that pressure, the space Liverpool leaves behind could suit Jaissle’s preference for quick vertical attacks, with Elanga's blistering pace an option on the right-wing, alongside Osula and Wissa more centrally.

This also provokes the interesting question as to whether Touré could start ahead of Harvey Barnes on the left wing.

If Newcastle cannot transition effectively, Liverpool may be able to create chances from turnovers before Newcastle’s defensive structure has time to reset.

What impact will Isak have on his return to Newcastle?

Isak immediately becomes one of the game’s defining storylines.

The striker spent three prolific seasons at Newcastle before moving to Liverpool, scoring 54 Premier League goals in 86 appearances for the Magpies.

His Liverpool career has yet to develop the same momentum.

That makes Sunday especially interesting. Isak has now completed a much more normal preseason and recently described himself as feeling progressively sharper. His movement behind the defense could test a Newcastle back line still adapting to Jaissle’s approach.

The Swede, once adored by the Newcastle fans, will be served up the ultimate test of his temperament in front of a hostile Gallowgate End.

Can Liverpool sustain Iraola's intensity?

Liverpool’s final weeks of preseason have produced encouraging evidence but also a clear warning.

Iraola was pleased with the first half against Monaco but said his team could not maintain the same level throughout the game.

After the final friendly against Como, Kerkez made a similar point: Liverpool are playing more aggressively and being asked to run more under the new coach.

That matters at St James’ Park. Newcastle are likely to make the game physically demanding, particularly in the opening stages.

If Liverpool press effectively without losing its structure, the visitors have the attacking quality to exploit turnovers.

If the intensity drops, Newcastle should find more opportunities to attack the spaces Liverpool leave behind.

Does Liverpool's recent dominance of this fixture matter?

Liverpool’s recent league record against Newcastle is difficult to ignore.

The Reds won 3–2 at St James’ Park in August 2025 and then 4–1 at Anfield in January 2026.

Newcastle’s official match center lists Liverpool as having won 38 of the clubs’ recorded head-to-head meetings compared with 11 Newcastle victories and 13 draws.

But last season’s game at St James’ Park also shows why the matchup cannot be reduced to the historical record.

Newcastle played much of the game with 10 men yet recovered from 2–0 down to make it 2–2 before conceding deep into stoppage time.

Liverpool has consistently found a way to win this fixture. That does not mean Sunday should be treated as routine.

How much does opening-day uncertainty matter?

Both teams are beginning new tactical cycles. For Liverpool, this is Iraola’s first competitive game. For Newcastle, Jaissle has had less than three weeks with his squad.

Opening weekend therefore comes before either manager has had meaningful competitive evidence to identify exactly what is and is not working.

Liverpool does at least have an excellent recent record in season openers.

The Reds are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League opening-weekend games and have won 20 of their 34 Premier League openers overall.

Newcastle’s home advantage makes this one of the more difficult places for Iraola to extend that run.

Newcastle United vs Liverpool head-to-head

Liverpool won both Premier League meetings between the clubs in 2025/26.

January 31, 2026: Liverpool 4–1 Newcastle United

Liverpool produced a dominant attacking performance at Anfield, generating 2.28 expected goals to Newcastle’s 0.36 and creating six big chances to Newcastle’s zero, all after a promising Toon start when Anthony Gordon gave them the lead.

August 25, 2025: Newcastle United 2–3 Liverpool

Newcastle played with 10 men following Anthony Gordon’s red card but recovered from 2–0 down before Rio Ngumoha scored Liverpool’s winner in the 100th minute.

March 16, 2025: Liverpool 1–2 Newcastle United

Newcastle won the League Cup final, providing their most recent victory over Liverpool in any competition.

The broader recent trend favors Liverpool, particularly in the Premier League, but Newcastle has shown it can make the matchup highly competitive.

What could move Newcastle United vs Liverpool odds before kickoff?

Starting lineups will provide the most important new information.

Liverpool’s midfield selection could be particularly relevant given the late World Cup returns, while Newcastle are still settling on Jaissle’s preferred combinations and are active in the transfer market.

Isak’s status and role could also affect expectations. He has built fitness successfully during preseason, but the exact attacking structure Iraola uses around him will not be confirmed until the teams are announced. His frosty reception will also serve as a test of his temperament.

Newcastle’s midfield selection matters following Guimarães’ departure. The balance between experience and younger summer additions could influence how confidently traders assess the home team’s ability to withstand Liverpool pressure.

Late injuries can naturally move prices, particularly if they affect a starting goalkeeper, center back, central midfielder or leading attacker.

The market can continue to change right up to kickoff as new information becomes available.

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