Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs prediction, start time and team news on Nov. 14, 2026

The Wildcats at Horned Frogs game in Week 11 pairs two 4-5 teams with different problems. Kansas State (1-5 in the Big 12) has lost three straight games without a settled quarterback, and TCU (2-4) has lost five games by a combined 25 points, none by more than eight.

Kickoff at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth is set for 2 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 14. TCU needs two wins in its last three games to reach a bowl, while Kansas State has beaten the Horned Frogs three straight times and seven times in their last 10 meetings.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

When is Wildcats vs Horned Frogs?

• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Kickoff: 2 p.m. ET
• Competition: College football, Week 11
• Home team: Horned Frogs
• Wildcats win: 22%
• Horned Frogs win: 79%

Other upcoming college football games appear in the daily sports prediction markets schedule.

What is the Wildcats vs Horned Frogs prediction?

The Horned Frogs are favorites at 79%, with the Wildcats at 22%, according to OG.com prediction markets. Market data as of November 12, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

TCU's clearest edge is quarterback stability against a defense that has struggled for weeks. Jaden Craig has thrown for 2,439 yards, 12th most in the country, and the Horned Frogs average 271 passing yards per game (24th in FBS). Kansas State has allowed at least 24 points to every Big 12 opponent, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, and lost 66-28 to the Cowboys on Nov. 7.

The Wildcats' 173 passing yards allowed per game (14th in FBS) flatter the secondary, because opponents run so often. Kansas State gives up 172 rushing yards per game, and Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns against that defense.

Kansas State's route to an upset runs through the ground game. Rodney Fields Jr. has rushed for 574 yards at 5.1 yards per carry, and the Horned Frogs rank 128th in FBS in rushing offense at 107 yards per game. If TCU cannot run, the offense leans on Craig's arm.

Wildcats vs Horned Frogs win probabilities

• Wildcats win: 22%
• Horned Frogs win: 79%

These percentages reflect the market's expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. At 79%, the Horned Frogs carry about a four in five chance, and prediction market prices are implied probabilities that can change as traders react to new information. Check the contract terms to see how overtime is handled.

How could Wildcats vs Horned Frogs unfold?

Kansas State's offense changed after Avery Johnson suffered a neck and shoulder injury in the Oct. 17 win over the Jayhawks. The Wildcats scored 17, 24 and 28 points in the three games since, an average of 23.0, compared with 31.3 for the season. Their rushing totals in those games were 84, 121 and 127 yards, after 359 against the Jayhawks.

If the Horned Frogs build an early lead, Kansas State has to throw to catch up. Blake Barnett went 7 of 17 for 106 yards and two interceptions against the Cowboys, and Dillon Duff added 94 yards, one touchdown and one interception in relief, according to the Wichita Eagle.

The favorite's weak points are protection and late-game execution. TCU has allowed 24 sacks, tied for 110th in FBS. The Horned Frogs also gained only 49 rushing yards in a 29-28 loss at Arizona on Nov. 6, after leading 28-20 in the final two minutes. Arizona closed with nine points in the last 1:43, helped by a recovered onside kick.

What is the latest team news?

Both teams are missing contributors on the Big 12's first availability report of the week, released Wednesday. More reports are due Thursday, Friday and 90 minutes before kickoff.

What is the latest on the Wildcats?

Quarterbacks Johnson (neck and shoulder) and Jacob Knuth (ankle) are out, which leaves Barnett and Duff as the healthy options. Head coach Collin Klein has not named a starter and expects both to play. Barnett is the dual threat, while Duff is more of a pocket passer, according to the Wichita Eagle.

Defensive tackles De'Arieun Hicks and Eli Jackson and linebacker Sawyer Schilke are also out, and receiver Max Lovett is questionable. Safety Koy Beasley and tight end Lawson McGraw, who missed the Cowboys game, were not listed.

What is the latest on the Horned Frogs?

TCU listed running back Jon Denman, receivers Ace Theus, Keagan Cunningham and Cooper Reid, cornerback Devondre McGee, offensive lineman Cade Bennett and a tight end as out. Safeties Julius Simms and Devyn Hidrogo are also listed, with the Wichita Eagle calling them questionable and the Topeka Capital-Journal calling them probable.

Craig remains the starter, though head coach Sonny Dykes said the staff has discussed giving sophomore quarterback Adam Schobel more playing time. With three receivers out, Kari Ashley and Jordan Dwyer, the top two receivers in each of TCU's last three games, are the clear targets.

What could decide Wildcats vs Horned Frogs?

Three matchups between units carry the most weight in this game.

Can the Horned Frogs run the ball against a thinner Wildcats front?

Kansas State allows 172 rushing yards per game and is without two defensive tackles. TCU ranks 128th in FBS in rushing offense and has lost Denman, who carried 15 times against the Mountaineers. If the Horned Frogs cannot run, Craig has to carry the offense through the air.

Can the Wildcats keep running against TCU's defense?

Fields and Joe Jackson give Kansas State a credible ground game, and Jackson ran for 159 yards against the Jayhawks. TCU allows 115 rushing yards per game on the season, but its last three opponents ran for 186, 166 and 128 yards, an average of 160.0. Production like that would shorten the game for a young quarterback.

Can the Wildcats win third downs without Johnson?

Kansas State ranks seventh in FBS in third-down conversion rate at 51.9%, but converted 19 of 49 (38.8%) in its last three games. TCU's defense holds opponents to 32.1% (24th in FBS). Whether Kansas State closes that gap decides if its drives last or if Fields and Jackson face long yardage.

What does the Wildcats vs Horned Frogs head-to-head history show?

Kansas State has won three straight meetings and seven of the last 10, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The latest was a 41-28 win in Manhattan last season, with Jackson rushing for 110 yards. The Wildcats also won 41-3 in 2023.

That history has limits. Chris Klieman went 6-1 against TCU from 2019 to 2025, and Klein is in his first season as head coach. Dykes called the schemes "very similar," but Johnson, who started 32 straight games, is out.

What could move Wildcats vs Horned Frogs market price?

The biggest pending item is Kansas State's quarterback. A Barnett or Duff announcement, or a surprise Johnson return, would change what the Wildcats can do through the air and on designed runs. Sports prediction markets can shift as availability news arrives, and Thursday and Friday reports will update the status of Lovett and the TCU safeties.

The National Weather Service forecast for Fort Worth calls for a mostly sunny Saturday near 72 degrees. Southeast wind of 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph could affect deeper throws. Because prices can move before kickoff, some traders use limit orders to set the price they're willing to accept.

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