Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Mendoza's debut meets the NFL's top defense on Nov. 15, 2026

The Seahawks at Raiders game on Sunday, November 15 puts the NFL's top defense by yards allowed against a rookie making his first start. Fernando Mendoza takes over at quarterback for the Raiders (4-5) after the team traded Kirk Cousins to the Vikings, and he faces a Seahawks team (5-4) that has won two of its last three.

Seattle has its own quarterback question. Drew Lock is expected to start again with Sam Darnold out, and Lock is managing right elbow and oblique injuries. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

When is Seahawks vs Raiders?

• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Competition: NFL, Week 10
• Home team: Raiders
• Seahawks win: 73%
• Raiders win: 28%

What is the Seahawks vs Raiders prediction?

The Seahawks are favorites at 73%, with the Raiders at 28%. These implied probabilities reflect the market's expectations, not guaranteed outcomes, and they can change as traders react to new information. Check the contract terms to see how overtime and a tie are handled. Market data as of November 12, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

The Seahawks hold the clearest advantage because their strengths meet the Raiders' weakest units. Seattle allows 244 total yards and 155 passing yards per game, both best in the NFL, according to ESPN team statistics through nine games. The Raiders rank last in points allowed (29.8), total yards allowed (385) and rushing yards allowed (151) per game.

The Raiders' path runs through their offense and the turnovers their defense creates. They score 26.4 points per game (eighth) and throw for 260 yards per game (fifth), with tight end Brock Bowers (658 receiving yards) and running back Ashton Jeanty (42 catches) as the main targets. Lock has thrown no interceptions in three appearances this season, so Maxx Crosby, who leads the Raiders with four sacks, and the pass rush have to create the mistakes.

Seahawks vs Raiders win probabilities

• Seahawks win: 73%
• Raiders win: 28%

The 45-point gap still leaves the Raiders a realistic route to an upset, since the Seahawks are one game ahead in the standings and are starting a backup quarterback behind a patched offensive line.

How could Seahawks vs Raiders unfold?

The game can swing on who sets the tempo, because Seattle's best results come from controlled drives and the Raiders' come from disruption.

If Seattle scores first and keeps Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price on schedule, Lock can work short throws to Jaxon Smith-Njigba while Mendoza chases the score. The Seahawks' recent results show how much clean early downs help. They allowed no sacks in their wins in Weeks 7 and 9, and they allowed five, five and three in their losses in Weeks 5, 6 and 8.

If the Raiders get pressure early, Crosby and the front can push Lock into longer downs with Quenton Nelson out and Charles Cross uncertain. A takeaway or sack-fumble would then give Mendoza short fields, and Bowers and Jeanty offer quick, high-percentage targets when Seattle's coverage closes the deeper routes.

What is the latest team news?

Both quarterback rooms changed this week, and the practice reports leave several Seattle designations open.

What is the latest on the Seahawks?

Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said Darnold (quadriceps and ribs) is out and could return after Seattle's Week 11 bye. Lock was limited Wednesday with right elbow and oblique injuries and is expected to start, with Jalen Milroe behind him. Macdonald said Lock will not take all the reps or throws in practice this week.

Nelson, a guard acquired from the Colts, is also out after a knee procedure and is considered week to week. Cross (ankle) and defensive tackle Leonard Williams (stinger) did not practice Wednesday, and Macdonald has not made a decision on either. Receiver Rashid Shaheed (knee) was a full participant, and linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (ankle) was limited. Smith-Njigba sat out Wednesday for rest.

What is the latest on the Raiders?

The Raiders named Mendoza their starter this week after trading Cousins to Minnesota for a 2027 third-round pick. Coach Klint Kubiak, who was Seattle's offensive coordinator last season, said Mendoza has prepared well and is ready to lead the offense. Mendoza has thrown eight NFL passes, all in the Week 5 loss at New England.

Defensive tackles Thomas Booker (ankle) and Folorunso Fatukasi (shoulder and back) and offensive lineman Trey Zuhn III (concussion) were limited Wednesday, and the Raiders listed only four players on their report. The defense, led by first-year coordinator Rob Leonard, has allowed at least 30 points in six straight games, tying an NFL record for a single season, according to the Associated Press. Kubiak has said he does not expect changes.

What could decide Seahawks vs Raiders?

Four matchups carry most of the weight on Sunday, starting with the quarterback who has the least experience.

Can Mendoza handle Seattle's defense?

Seattle has allowed a league-low 134 passing yards per game in four games against first-year starters, according to NFL.com. The Raiders' protection gives Mendoza a chance, since they have allowed 11 sacks, tied for the second fewest.

Arm strength is the other side of the ledger. Cousins went 6 for 25 on throws of 20 or more air yards, and NFL.com listed throwing contested targets open downfield among Mendoza's best traits, which gives Kubiak's offense more shot plays to choose from.

Can the Raiders stop Seattle's ground game?

San Francisco ran for 190 yards on the Raiders last Sunday. Seattle rushed for 120 yards against Arizona, with Charbonnet gaining 77 yards on 16 carries and Price adding 24 rushing yards and 54 receiving yards. With Booker and Fatukasi limited, the interior of the Raiders' line is the area to watch.

Can Seattle protect Lock without Nelson?

Anthony Bradford, a guard limited with a knee injury, and the rest of the line must hold up if Cross cannot play. The Raiders have 19 team sacks, and a short, quick passing game suits a quarterback who cannot take a full week of throws.

Who wins the turnover battle?

The Raiders have 14 takeaways, fourth in the NFL, while Seattle has 14 giveaways and a turnover margin of minus one. Darnold threw all nine of Seattle's interceptions, and Lock has none.

Las Vegas lost the ball five times at San Francisco, including a pick-six on the first play of the second half, so a first-time starter who protects the ball would change that picture.

What could move Seahawks vs Raiders prediction?

Seattle sets game designations after Friday's practice, and the answers on Lock, Cross and Williams can change the outlook. If Lock cannot play, Milroe is next in line. The Raiders' Friday report will show whether Booker, Fatukasi and Zuhn are on track, and Sunday's inactives complete the picture.

Prices in sports prediction markets often move when injury designations arrive. Traders who want control over the price they accept can use a limit order, and the daily sports prediction markets schedule shows how the rest of Sunday's slate is priced.

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