Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets prediction: Paint battle and injury questions on Nov. 4, 2026

Raptors at Nuggets on Wednesday, Nov. 4, pairs a Raptors team (3-3) without Kawhi Leonard against a Nuggets team (3-2) that has its starting five together again. Cameron Johnson returned from a right ankle injury in the Nuggets' 127-120 NBA Cup win at the Suns on Oct. 30, and Jakob Poeltl sat out the Raptors' last game with a shoulder injury.

The clearest basketball contrast is in the paint. The Raptors have scored 49.2 points there per game over their last five games, and the Nuggets have allowed 51.2 over theirs. Those averages come from different opponents, so they point to a tendency in how each team plays.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

When is Raptors at Nuggets?

• Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
• Tip-off: 9 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. MT
• Competition: NBA, 2026–27 regular season
• Home team: Nuggets

What is the Raptors at Nuggets prediction?

The Nuggets are favorites at 63%, with the Raptors at 49%, according to OG.com prediction markets. Market data as of November 2, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

The Nuggets have the stronger case. Nikola Jokic recorded his 200th career triple-double (21 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists) in the 104-91 win at the Pelicans on Oct. 28. Two nights later at the Suns, Jamal Murray scored 39 points and Christian Braun added a career-high 31, and all five starters reached double figures.

The Raptors' route is speed and pressure. They have outscored opponents 92-57 on the fast break over their last five games, while the Nuggets have been outscored 75-63 on the break over theirs. A Raptors win likely begins with early offense and paint scoring, the two categories where their five-game margins are positive and the Nuggets' are negative.

Leonard's absence ties the Raptors' ceiling to Scottie Barnes, who scored 41 points against the Magic on Oct. 30 and 29 at the Lakers on Sunday.

Raptors at Nuggets win probabilities

Each team has its own contract in sports prediction markets, and a contract pays $1 if the prediction is correct and nothing if it is incorrect. The market resolves when the game ends and the winner is determined.

These percentages reflect the market's expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. Prediction market prices reflect implied probabilities and can change as traders react to new information. Prices for other NBA games appear in the daily sports prediction markets.

How could Raptors at Nuggets unfold?

The Nuggets' offense gives opponents a choice. Defenses that load up on Jokic and Murray have left Braun open, and he made all six of his three-pointers in the first half at the Suns on Oct. 30. That spacing forces the Raptors to decide which shooter to give up.

The paint is where the Nuggets can be pushed. The Pelicans scored 70 points there in a 141-135 loss on Oct. 24, and the Suns scored 50 before losing 127-120. Both results show the Nuggets can survive paint losses when their threes fall, so the Raptors need defensive stops to turn paint scoring into a lead.

Each team's best defensive choice concedes something. The Nuggets can crowd the paint and risk kick-out threes, and the Raptors can stay home on shooters and risk drives.

What is the latest team news?

Injuries have cost the Raptors a star and, on Sunday, their only seven-footer, while the Nuggets have regained Johnson.

What is the latest on the Raptors?

Leonard has been out since a late scratch at the Timberwolves on Oct. 25 with left knee swelling and missed his fourth straight game Sunday. The Raptors have said he is expected to miss three to four weeks, and coach Darko Rajakovic said no exact return date has been set.

Poeltl was a late scratch against the Lakers with left shoulder bursitis and is listed day-to-day. Trayce Jackson-Davis started at center in his place, and Nate Bittle (foot) is also out.

What is the latest on the Nuggets?

Johnson had played 11 minutes in the season opener at the Thunder before the ankle injury, so his Oct. 30 return was his first full game of the season. Spencer Jones (hamstring), Alpha Diallo (wrist) and Julian Strawther (left knee sprain) are listed out.

What are the projected starting lineups?

The Raptors changed their center on Sunday, while the Nuggets' group started together at the Suns on Oct. 30.

How could the Raptors line up?

Projected starting five:

• Immanuel Quickley
• Ja'Kobe Walter
• RJ Barrett
• Scottie Barnes
• Jakob Poeltl

This projection assumes Poeltl is available; Jackson-Davis, who started Sunday, is the likely alternative if he is ruled out. Collin Murray-Boyles (15 points in 23 minutes against the Magic on Oct. 30) and Jamison Battle (20 points in 17 minutes at the Lakers) lead the reserves.

How could the Nuggets line up?

Projected starting five:

• Jamal Murray
• Christian Braun
• Cameron Johnson
• Aaron Gordon
• Nikola Jokic

This projection assumes Johnson starts as he did at the Suns; Trevon Brazile, who started at the Pelicans on Oct. 28, is the alternative if he sits. DeMar DeRozan, who has come off the bench, scored 21 points in 29 minutes against the Warriors on Oct. 26.

What could decide Raptors at Nuggets?

The Raptors are 2-3 over their last five games and the Nuggets 3-2, and the two records come with different problems: one team has won the possession battle without winning games, and the other has won with its shooting.

Can Murray and Braun keep shooting well against the Raptors' perimeter defense?

The Nuggets have made 65 of 174 three-pointers (37.4%) over their last five games, including 20 at the Suns. The Raptors' opponents have made 73 of 174 (42.0%) over the same number of games, with the Magic and the Lakers each hitting 18. A Nuggets shooting night would repeat what the Raptors have already allowed.

Can Barnes and Barrett carry the Raptors' scoring without Leonard?

Barnes has been the Raptors' top scorer in four of their last five games, and Barrett has been second in three. Their drives are aimed at a Nuggets defense that has allowed 50 or more paint points in two of its last five games, but the Raptors need a third scorer: Quickley, Walter or a reserve.

Does winning the turnover battle translate into points for the Raptors?

The Raptors committed 75 turnovers to their opponents' 104 over the last five games, fewer in each one, and still went 2-3. They made 60 of 188 three-pointers (31.9%), and the Lakers shot 43 of 80 from the field on Sunday despite 24 turnovers. The Nuggets' own giveaways (22 at the Thunder on Oct. 22, 83 over five games) give the Raptors the chance to turn that edge into points.

What could move Raptors at Nuggets prediction?

The center spot is the pending decision. If Poeltl plays, the Raptors have a seven-footer to meet Jokic at the rim; if Jackson-Davis starts again, Murray-Boyles is likely to take more minutes. In the Raptors' one game without Poeltl, they still matched the Lakers on the boards, 47-45, with Walker Kessler grabbing 15 rebounds.

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