Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies prediction: Injury-hit Pacers face the unbeaten Grizzlies on Nov. 4, 2026

Pacers at Grizzlies on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, pairs a Grizzlies team that opened 6-0, tying the best start in franchise history, with a Pacers team that has lost four straight.

The Grizzlies built that start on perimeter shooting and a rookie, Cameron Boozer, who already has a triple-double. The Pacers are 2-5, with a 0-3 home record, and are trying to stay competitive without their starting point guard and center.

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When is Pacers at Grizzlies?

• Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
• Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. CT
• Competition: NBA, 2026–27 regular season
• Home team: Grizzlies

What is the Pacers at Grizzlies prediction?

The Grizzlies are favorites at 68%, with the Pacers at 39%. Market data as of November 2, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

The case for the Grizzlies starts on the perimeter. They made 83 of 197 three-pointers (42.1%) over their last five games and averaged 120.8 points, while opponents made 57 of 194 (29.4%). That gap gives them the clearest route to an early double-digit lead.

The Pacers made 73 of 199 threes (36.7%) over the same stretch, so shooting alone does not explain their slide. Creation does. The Pacers scored 90 points on 28-of-70 shooting against the Nets on Sunday, and its opponents scored 576 points across the five games (115.2 per game).

The strongest challenge to the Grizzlies' case is their own ball security. The Grizzlies turned the ball over 81 times in their last five games (16.2 a game), including 27 at Golden State, and the Pacers outscored opponents 77-56 on fast breaks over that span. Turnovers are the likeliest way for the Pacers to find easy points while Tyrese Haliburton is out.

What do the market percentages say about Pacers at Grizzlies?

The gap between the teams reflects an unbeaten home team facing a Pacers rotation without its starting point guard and center. The percentages are implied probabilities, and sports prediction markets can reprice as injury news arrives.

Each Winner contract pays $1 if the prediction is correct and nothing if it is not, and the market resolves when the game ends and a winner is determined. Check the contract terms to see how overtime is handled.

How could Pacers at Grizzlies unfold?

Boozer is the hinge of the Grizzlies' offense. The 19-year-old forward scored 27 points with nine rebounds against the Kings and had 18 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists against the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies recorded 139 assists to their opponents' 116 over the last five games, so the ball moves.

That movement puts the Pacers' defenders in a bind. If the Pacers send help at the rim against Zach Edey or a Boozer drive, the pass goes to a shooter such as Jaylen Wells, who has made multiple threes in four games this season. If they stay home, the Grizzlies get cleaner paint touches.

The glass is the second pressure point. The Grizzlies outrebounded opponents 244-212 and outscored them 226-212 in the paint over their last five games. The Pacers were outrebounded 237-209 and still outscored opponents 228-220 in the paint.

The Pacers' defense ranked 23rd in the NBA with a 117.2 defensive rating through six games, according to Basketball-Reference. Without Zubac, who averages 9.0 rebounds this season, the Pacers need Jay Huff and Pascal Siakam to carry the interior.

What is the latest team news?

The Pacers' injury list is far longer than the Grizzlies' and covers point guard, center and depth.

What is the latest on the Pacers?

Haliburton, who was averaging 21.8 points before a left hamstring strain, is expected to miss at least 10 more days, according to the Associated Press. Zubac has missed four straight games with a left ankle sprain, and his status after Monday's game against the Hawks is the biggest open question.

Obi Toppin missed Friday's loss at Miami and Sunday's loss to the Nets with lower back soreness. He was listed questionable for Monday, and coach Rick Carlisle said a return that night was possible. T.J. McConnell (right hamstring strain) is out, and Ben Sheppard (meniscus) and Johnny Furphy (ACL) are out after surgeries. Aaron Nesmith was listed probable for Monday with a left hamstring strain.

What is the latest on the Grizzlies?

Scotty Pippen Jr. was listed doubtful for Monday with low back soreness, and Quinten Post was listed questionable with a right ankle sprain. Ty Jerome, the team's leading scorer at 25.8 points a game, sat out Saturday with a back issue and does not appear on Monday's NBA injury report.

The Grizzlies beat the Kings 136-105 without Jerome and Pippen. Cam Spencer started at point guard and finished with 10 points and 13 assists.

What are the projected starting lineups?

Both teams have changed their starting fives because of injuries in the past week: the Pacers since Zubac went down, and the Grizzlies on Saturday.

How could the Pacers line up?

Projected starting five:

• Andrew Nembhard
• Aaron Nesmith
• Kelly Oubre Jr.
• Pascal Siakam
• Jay Huff

This is the group the Pacers started against the Nets on Sunday. The projection assumes Zubac remains out; he started all three games he played this season and would be expected to replace Huff at center once cleared. Toppin and Jarace Walker lead the frontcourt reserves.

How could the Grizzlies line up?

Projected starting five:

• Ty Jerome
• Cedric Coward
• Jaylen Wells
• Cameron Boozer
• Zach Edey

This is the group the Grizzlies used against the Trail Blazers. The projection assumes Jerome is available; Spencer is the likely alternative if he is ruled out. Isaiah Stewart and GG Jackson are the main frontcourt reserves.

What could decide Pacers at Grizzlies?

The Grizzlies have scored at least 110 points in all five of their last games, while the Pacers managed 90 on Sunday, so the contest starts with who creates easier shots.

Can the Pacers create good shots without Haliburton?

Andrew Nembhard scored 23 points against the Nets, 15 of them in the fourth quarter, and Siakam added 17. No other Pacer scored more than 12, and the team shot 32.4% in the first half. If the Grizzlies keep Nembhard and Siakam out of the paint, the Pacers need a third scorer to emerge from Quenton Jackson, Toppin or Nesmith.

Can the Grizzlies keep their turnovers down?

After 27 turnovers at Golden State, the Grizzlies averaged 13.5 in their next four games. The Pacers' route to staying close is converting those mistakes into fast breaks before the Grizzlies' defense is set. Jerome's and Pippen's availability bears on that, since Spencer started Saturday.

Which bench scores more?

Stewart scored 24 points in 21 minutes and GG Jackson added 21 in 21 on Saturday, which gives the Grizzlies scoring depth off the bench. The Pacers had only eight standard-contract players and three two-way players available on Sunday, so Carlisle has little room to rest anyone.

What could move Pacers at Grizzlies prediction?

Zubac is the largest pending change. His return would restore a starting center and a rebounder against Edey and the Grizzlies' size. Toppin's return would add a shooter who made 40.7% of his threes this season.

On the Grizzlies' side, a Jerome absence would put more playmaking on Boozer and Spencer, while a return for Pippen would deepen the guard rotation. The Grizzlies host the Pelicans and the Pacers host the Hawks on Monday, two of the games on the daily sports prediction markets slate, and their statuses afterward will clarify each team's rotation.

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