Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders prediction and odds

Two new head coaches. Two new starting quarterbacks. Two teams trying to leave losing seasons behind.

Las Vegas went 3-14 last year, allowed 432 points and surrendered 64 sacks. The response has been sweeping. Klint Kubiak is the new head coach, Cousins has won the quarterback job and No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza will begin his career behind him.

Tyler Linderbaum, Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, Kwity Paye and Taron Johnson are among the reinforcements around a young core led by Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty.

Miami has changed just as much after a 7-10 season. Jeff Hafley replaces Mike McDaniel, Willis takes over from Tua Tagovailoa and a young receiving group must develop without Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle.

Achane remains the constant. His speed gives the Dolphins a way to make this uncomfortable even if the new passing game takes time.

The market prefers Las Vegas. Home advantage and Cousins' experience help explain why, but Week 1 will also expose which rebuild is ready to function first.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders game snapshot

• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Competition: NFL
• Week: 1
• Home team: Las Vegas Raiders
• Miami Dolphins win: 37%
• Las Vegas Raiders win: 64%

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction

Prediction markets for Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders currently make the Raiders 64% favorites, with the Dolphins at 37%.

Market data as of September 4, 2026. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.

Las Vegas deserves the lead. Cousins gives Kubiak a veteran quarterback who has made 167 NFL starts, while Bowers, Jeanty and Tre Tucker provide an established center to the offense.

Linderbaum should strengthen a line that conceded 64 sacks last season. That was not a minor weakness. It shaped almost every difficult situation the Raiders faced.

Cousins does not need to rescue this offense on every possession. Kubiak can use motion, play action and a varied running game to create defined throws, particularly for Bowers between the numbers. Jalen Nailor adds another vertical option after scoring 10 touchdowns across his final two seasons in Minnesota.

The matchup also favors Las Vegas on the other side of the ball. Maxx Crosby returns after producing 10 sacks in 2025, and Paye and Malcolm Koonce give the Raiders more ways to create pressure without blitzing.

Miami's line protected well at times during camp, but Patrick Paul and Austin Jackson now have to account for an edge rotation that can attack both sides.

Willis changes that calculation. He can escape a clean pass-rush win, punish an edge defender for crashing too far inside and add a runner to Miami's option game.

In 11 appearances for Green Bay over the previous two seasons, he completed 79% of his passes without an interception and averaged 6.2 yards per carry. The sample is small. The athletic threat is real.

Achane gives Miami its stronger route into the game. He led the NFL at 5.7 yards per carry in 2025, finished with 1,838 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 touchdowns.

Las Vegas allowed 1,986 rushing yards last season and has replaced much of its linebacker structure. If Achane forces Dean and Walker to widen with outside runs, screens and option looks, Willis may find easier throws behind them.

The problem for Miami is everything that follows. Its leading receiver from 2025 is gone, Malik Washington is the only returning wideout who caught more than 10 passes last season and the secondary is both young and depleted. Las Vegas has more established answers in the passing game and the more experienced quarterback.

That is enough for a clear lean toward the Raiders without treating the opener as settled. Jeanty's health matters. So does Cousins' mobility behind a reworked line.

Miami can challenge the market hierarchy if Achane controls the early downs and Willis turns pressure into rushing yards rather than negative plays.

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders odds

• Miami Dolphins win: 37%
• Las Vegas Raiders win: 64%

The current prices make Las Vegas a clear favorite, but not an overwhelming one.

The Raiders' home advantage, greater quarterback experience and deeper group of established targets support their position. Miami's price reflects both the uncertainty around a new offense and the game-changing ability of Achane and Willis as runners.

Last season's records point the other way—Miami won seven games and Las Vegas won three—but roster continuity is low on both sides. The market is placing more weight on what the Raiders added and on how much proven receiving production the Dolphins lost.

Our 2026 NFL season outlook provides the broader context for a year in which coaching and quarterback changes have altered several divisions.

These are market-implied probabilities, not guarantees. Readers comparing sacks, turnover margin and rushing efficiency can find the terms used here in our guide to NFL statistics.

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders game outlook

Kubiak's first task is to make the game easier for Cousins than Las Vegas made it for its quarterbacks last season.

Expect the Raiders to begin with the run and build the passing game from the same looks. If Jeanty is available, his acceleration can press the front before he cuts into space. Mike Washington Jr. offers a second option after leading the AFC with 168 rushing yards during preseason. Fullback Connor Heyward and the Bowers-Michael Mayer tight-end pairing also let Las Vegas change the strength of a formation without substituting.

That personnel creates uncomfortable choices for Miami. Its defensive front is thin while Kenneth Grant begins the season on injured reserve. If the Dolphins use heavier bodies to slow Jeanty, Bowers can release against a linebacker or safety. If they spread out to match the passing game, Cousins can return to the run.

Bowers is the central matchup. He caught 64 passes for 680 yards and seven touchdowns last year despite the Raiders' wider offensive problems. Hafley can use Jordyn Brooks underneath, bracket Bowers with a safety or ask a defensive back to carry him in man coverage. None is a complete answer. Brooks is also too important to the run defense to spend every snap detached from the box.

Miami needs Zach Sieler and Chop Robinson to disturb that plan before it develops. Sieler can challenge Las Vegas inside, where Linderbaum is new and the guard combination remains young. Robinson was one of Miami's best performers during camp. His speed against Kolton Miller or DJ Glaze could force Cousins to step into interior traffic.

Pressure matters more against Cousins than against Willis. Cousins can diagnose coverage and deliver on time, but he is not going to erase free rushers with his legs. Miami should test the new protection with simulated pressure—showing extra rushers, then dropping out—rather than leaving an inexperienced secondary exposed behind constant blitzes.

The Dolphins' offense should look different. Bobby Slowik can combine Achane's outside-zone threat with quarterback keepers, bootlegs and quick throws that move the launch point away from Crosby. Willis does not need to become a high-volume pocket passer immediately. He needs to keep the offense out of obvious passing situations.

Achane can help everywhere. He ran for 1,350 yards last season and caught 67 passes for another 488. Aligning him outside can reveal whether Las Vegas is in man coverage; motioning him back into the formation can then create a favorable angle for a screen or outside run. The Raiders have added speed at linebacker, but Dean and Walker are still learning the structure around them.

The passing game is harder to project. Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington and rookies Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell and Kevin Coleman Jr. lead a receiver room with little shared experience. Willis showed during camp that he can create after leaving the pocket, but improvised football becomes risky if Crosby controls the edge and the receivers cannot separate early.

Las Vegas' secondary has questions of its own. Johnson is an accomplished slot defender, while Jermod McCoy is a talented rookie returning from the knee injury that cost him all of 2025. Eric Stokes, Darien Porter and Hezekiah Masses are part of a reshaped outside group. Miami should test their communication with motion and bunch formations before asking its young receivers to win isolated routes.

This may begin as a patient game. Both offenses have new systems, and neither coach has a reason to expose his quarterback to unnecessary early risk. The first team to establish the run can dictate personnel and make the other's pass rush less dangerous.

Team news and injuries

Miami Dolphins

Willis is expected to make his first opening-day start for Miami. The Dolphins gave him a three-year deal after two seasons behind Jordan Love in Green Bay, and he took most of the first-team work during the closing stages of camp. Kyle McCord was acquired to be the backup.

Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan have built the offense around Achane, center Aaron Brewer and a much younger receiving group.

Achane and right tackle Austin Jackson were cleared for full work after being limited during spring practices. Rookie Bell returned late in preseason from the injury he suffered in college, although his conditioning and early role remain less certain.

Miami's confirmed reserve-list absences are concentrated on defense. Cornerbacks Darrell Baker Jr. and Storm Duck are on the reserve/PUP list. Defensive tackle Grant and edge/inside linebacker Trey Moore are on injured reserve with return designations, which rules both out for Week 1.

The defensive backfield remains fluid. Chris Johnson can work outside or in the slot, while Dante Trader Jr., Zayne Anderson and Michael Taaffe are among the safety options. Hafley has deliberately avoided presenting that group as a fixed starting 11 and can change the personnel with the matchup.

Las Vegas Raiders

Cousins is the confirmed starter. He won the job over Mendoza and Aidan O'Connell after completing 76.5% of his preseason passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick in April, can develop without being forced into the opener.

Jeanty's availability is the main question. He has not practiced since leaving a late-August session after landing awkwardly while trying to catch a pass. The Raiders kept him on the active roster rather than placing him on injured reserve, but the team has described him only as “on the mend.”

Washington and Dylan Laube are the other running backs on the 53-man roster.

Crosby is healthy after finishing last season on injured reserve. McCoy also made the active roster following a cautious return from his knee injury. The Raiders retained Koonce and added Paye, giving them enough edge depth to rotate without moving Crosby away from the most favorable matchup.

The new offensive line is likely to be built around Miller at left tackle and Linderbaum at center. Jackson Powers-Johnson, Spencer Burford, Caleb Rogers, Trey Zuhn III, DJ Glaze and Charles Grant give Kubiak several combinations across the remaining spots.

The exact five may shift, but protecting Cousins is the purpose of the rebuild.

Key factors that could decide Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders

Is Ashton Jeanty available to carry the Las Vegas run game?

Jeanty accounted for 1,321 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. His presence would let the Raiders use the run to set up Cousins rather than placing the offense immediately on the quarterback.

If Jeanty is limited or unavailable, Washington can still contribute. The role changes, though. Las Vegas would lose its most proven early-down runner and one of its best receiving options out of the backfield.

Can Miami keep Maxx Crosby from controlling the edge?

Crosby is the defender Miami must locate before every snap. Slowik can run away from him, leave a tight end attached to his side or move Willis' launch point. None removes him from the game.

Willis' mobility gives the Dolphins a response that last year's quarterbacks did not always have. He still has to know when to escape. Drifting backward or holding the ball turns Crosby's pressure into longer-yardage problems.

How quickly can Kirk Cousins trust his new protection?

Las Vegas allowed a sack on more than one of every nine dropbacks last season. Cousins' timing can reduce that number, and Linderbaum should stabilize the interior, but the unit has not played a regular-season snap together.

Miami can make that first test difficult with Sieler inside and Robinson outside. If four rushers are enough, Hafley can keep extra defenders near Bowers and force Cousins to throw into tighter windows.

Does De'Von Achane create favorable looks for Malik Willis?

Achane is more than Miami's lead runner. His alignment can expose coverage, his motion can pull a linebacker away from Willis and his receiving ability punishes a defense for overcommitting to the quarterback run.

Las Vegas' new linebackers must communicate cleanly. One false step can become a long gain when Achane reaches space.

Who wins between Brock Bowers and Miami's coverage plan?

Bowers is too productive to treat as a conventional tight end. He can align in-line, in the slot or outside, forcing Miami to reveal which defender is responsible for him. Our football positions guide explains why modern tight ends can create such difficult personnel decisions.

Miami does not have to erase him. It does have to tackle immediately and prevent short completions from becoming drive-extending gains.

Can Miami's young receivers punish the Raiders' rebuilt secondary?

Tolbert is the most experienced wideout on the roster, but his best NFL season produced 610 yards. Washington caught 46 passes last year; the rest of the group is largely unproven.

The Raiders' cornerbacks are also learning new roles. If Willis gets time, motion and route combinations can test their handoffs. Miami needs at least one receiver to win outside so Las Vegas cannot compress the field around Achane.

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders head-to-head

Miami won the most recent meeting 34-19 in November 2024. Achane produced 105 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown, while Bowers caught 13 passes and scored for Las Vegas.

Those performances remain relevant because both players are central again. Much of the rest does not. Tagovailoa and Gardner Minshew were the quarterbacks, both teams had different head coaches and the two current rosters have since been heavily reconstructed.

The previous game therefore offers two useful matchup reminders rather than a reliable blueprint: Miami can move Achane between the run and passing games, and Bowers can dominate volume even when Las Vegas struggles elsewhere.

What could move Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders odds?

Jeanty's status is the clearest variable before kickoff. A full return would restore the intended balance of Kubiak's offense. Another missed practice or a game-status designation would place more responsibility on Cousins and Washington.

Miami's first official injury report will clarify the condition of Achane and Jackson after their earlier limitations, as well as Bell's readiness for a regular-season workload. Any new issue in the receiver room would be magnified because so much of the group is young.

The lineups around both quarterbacks matter without requiring a fixed list of 11 starters. Las Vegas must settle its guard and right-tackle combination. Miami needs its tackles available against Crosby, Koonce and Paye. A change at either edge of the Dolphins' line would alter the pressure matchup quickly.

The secondary is another area to watch. Miami is already without Baker and Duck, while the Raiders are integrating Johnson and several young outside cornerbacks. An absence there would change how aggressively either defense can pressure.

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