Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs prediction: Victor Wembanyama and the Mavericks' fast break on Nov. 4, 2026

The Mavericks at Spurs game on Wednesday, Nov. 4, is the second meeting of the season. The Spurs won the first 122-106 on Oct. 24 while Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg sat out for the Mavericks, and both teams are 4-2.

The Mavericks have won three straight, including a 116-111 win over the unbeaten Rockets on Oct. 30. The Spurs have won four in a row, powered by Wembanyama's 43 points against the Timberwolves on Oct. 31, and the game sets the Mavericks' transition scoring against his rim protection.

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When is Mavericks at Spurs?

• Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET / 8:30 p.m. CT
• Competition: NBA, 2026–27 regular season
• Home team: Spurs
• Mavericks win: 27%
• Spurs win: 77%

Both teams play Monday, Nov. 2, with the Mavericks hosting the Kings and the Spurs hosting the Jazz, and the daily sports prediction markets page lists the full NBA slate each night.

What is the Mavericks at Spurs prediction?

The Spurs are favorites at 77%, with the Mavericks at 27%. The percentages are implied probabilities that reflect the market's expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. Prices on sports prediction markets can change as traders react to new information. Market data as of November 2, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

The Spurs have the more repeatable scoring profile. They outscored opponents by 11.0 points a game over their last five (120.0 to 109.0), and most of that edge comes from Wembanyama and the paint. The Mavericks outscored opponents by 6.6 (115.2 to 108.6) over the same span, with a profile that depends more on turnovers and open-floor scoring.

The Mavericks have a credible answer in their two scorers. Irving and Flagg combined for 68 points on 25-of-38 shooting against the Rockets, and they will share the floor for the first time against these Spurs. Daniel Gafford has started all five of the Mavericks' last games at center, and he carries the interior load with Dereck Lively II out.

The strongest supported case runs through the paint: if the Spurs keep getting the ball to Wembanyama near the rim, the Mavericks need turnovers and transition points to stay level.

Mavericks at Spurs win probabilities

• Mavericks win: 27%
• Spurs win: 77%

The 50-point gap makes the Mavericks clear underdogs. They already beat an unbeaten Rockets team once this month, which shows the route exists when both stars play.

How could Mavericks at Spurs unfold?

The Mavericks' clearest edge is in the open floor. They outscored opponents 95 to 42 on fast-break points over their last five games, including 28 against the Rockets and 28 in the Oct. 24 loss to the Spurs, who scored 15 that night.

The Spurs take the ball away more often than they give it up. Opponents committed 84 turnovers against them over five games (16.8 a game) while the Spurs committed 68 (13.6), and the Mavericks gave it away 21 times in the Oct. 24 meeting.

The Spurs' possessions also end closer to the rim. They scored 286 paint points to their opponents' 240 over those five games, with at least 54 in four of them. The Mavericks were outscored 262 to 248 in the paint over their five.

Wembanyama's presence changes how the Mavericks attack. Help at the rim usually reduces driving and rolling space and can free a perimeter shooter, and the Mavericks have attempted 33 or more threes in four of their last five games, so that perimeter volume is the release valve if drives get cut off.

What is the latest team news?

The Mavericks come in with four players listed out and a point guard whose knee is still being managed, while the Spurs' list is shorter.

What is the latest on Mavericks?

Dereck Lively II (foot), Tarik Biberovic (heel), Sergio de Larrea (knee) and Santi Aldama (knee) are listed out. Aldama has not played for the Mavericks this season.

Irving (knee) is questionable for Monday's game against the Kings as the Mavericks manage his left knee after his torn ACL. His only absence this season came on the second night of a back-to-back on Oct. 24, and he played a season-high 35 minutes against the Rockets on Oct. 30. He has no designation yet for Wednesday, which follows a day off.

What is the latest on Spurs?

Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee) are listed out. Harris has yet to play for the Spurs since signing this summer, and coach Mitch Johnson said the team is approaching his rehab "very, very methodically," according to the San Antonio Express-News.

Stephon Castle played through a migraine against the Timberwolves and scored zero points in 22 minutes. He has no current injury designation.

What are the projected starting lineups?

The Spurs have started the same five in each of their last five games, while the Mavericks' group changed only on Oct. 24, when Irving and Flagg were out.

How could Mavericks line up?

Projected starting five:

• Kyrie Irving
• Max Christie
• Cooper Flagg
• P.J. Washington
• Daniel Gafford

This projection assumes Irving is available; Marcus Sasser or Walter Clayton Jr. would be the candidates to replace him if he rests. Zaccharie Risacher started on Oct. 24 and is the reserve forward to watch.

How could Spurs line up?

Projected starting five:

• De'Aaron Fox
• Stephon Castle
• Dylan Harper
• Devin Vassell
• Victor Wembanyama

This group has not changed across five games, and no player on the Spurs' injury list is a starter. Julian Champagnie, who scored 26 points in 25 minutes against the Kings on Oct. 27, is the main reserve scorer.

What could decide Mavericks at Spurs?

The Mavericks and Spurs each allowed 109 points or fewer per game over their last five, which puts the weight on how each side creates shots.

Can Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg keep scoring at this level?

Flagg has scored 29, 26 and 33 in his last three games, and Irving scored 35 on 12-of-19 shooting against the Rockets. The Mavericks need both near that level because the Spurs have scored 117 or more in four of their last five games.

Can the Mavericks hold the boards without Dereck Lively II?

The Rockets out-rebounded the Mavericks 48-41 on Oct. 30. The Spurs grabbed 49 rebounds to the Timberwolves' 38 on Oct. 31, so the same gap on the glass would hand them extra possessions near the rim. Gafford is the only established center left in the rotation, and Moussa Cisse is the likely backup.

Does Victor Wembanyama's shot volume help or strain the Spurs?

Wembanyama took a career-high 34 shots against the Timberwolves and made 17 of them, and the Spurs still won by 10. He is averaging 28.0 points through six games, and Fox, who had 22 points on 80% shooting in that game, gives the Spurs a second organizer when the Mavericks load up on the big man.

What does the Mavericks at Spurs head-to-head history show?

The Spurs lead the season series 1-0 after the Oct. 24 win. That game carries limited weight for Wednesday because Irving and Flagg both missed it. The Spurs made 15 of 42 threes and committed 12 turnovers to the Mavericks' 21, which are the two areas the Mavericks can change with their stars back.

What could move Mavericks at Spurs prediction?

Irving's knee is the pending decision. If the Mavericks rest him, Flagg's usage rises and Sasser or Clayton enters the backcourt, which tests the Mavericks' ball security, the area where they lost the Oct. 24 meeting. If he plays his normal minutes, the Mavericks keep the two-scorer structure that beat the Rockets.

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