Golf prediction markets explained: how PGA tour markets work
Learn how golf prediction markets work, how PGA Tour events are structured, what moves market prices, and how to trade golf event contracts on OG.
Learn
By Sam Bloomquist
Golf works in a peculiar way when it comes to handicapping each tournament. Most tournaments feature a similar cast of golfers week in and week out, so how can the golf prediction markets be so different for each tournament?
Statistics like ball striking, putting, greens in regulation, and so on all have major implications for each golfer depending on the course and conditions. When buying an event contract for a specific tournament, make sure you know what traits your guy has and how they may fit the course.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What is the PGA Tour?
The PGA Tour is the governing body for professional golf. They decide which events will take place, who’s allowed in them, how much the winner gets and everything in between. Not all golfers are on the PGA Tour, as many amateurs try to break into the field, and others choose rival leagues like LIV Golf, but as far as golf goes, the PGA Tour is the biggest show in town.
For a majority of tournaments, golfers will play 18 holes per day, with staggered start times to keep the flow of the tournament steady. After two days, the tournament will have a cut line that typically eliminates everyone except for the top 40 to 50 golfers based on the field’s scores and tournament rules. The remaining golfers will play two more rounds of 18 holes. The golfer with the lowest score at the end of four rounds wins the tournament.
When viewing this through the lens of a prediction market, you’ll be wagering on markets like outright winner, top-five, top-10, top-20, best golfer of a certain nationality, two golfers in a matchup, and so much more.
When does the PGA Tour season start and how long does it run?
The PGA Tour season typically starts in January each year. Sometimes based on conditions or scheduling, it can start a little later, but it’s usually in the beginning of the year.
It runs through the summer and the official FedEx cup regular season ends in August or September. However, there are some more golf events that run after the regular season, like the Ryder Cup and FedEx Fall events, among others.
The FedEx Cup regular season is the main vehicle for the PGA Tour. In 2026, it began on January 15th with the Sony Open in Hawaii and ran through the FedEx Cup Championship in August.
The Championship is split into three events, the Fed Ex St. Jude Championship, the BMW Championship and the TOUR Championship, which concluded the season on August 30th. You’ll see a golfer’s FedEx St. Jude Championship odds change based on how well they perform throughout the season.
PGA Tour vs PGA Championship vs TOUR Championship: what is the difference?
What it means
Why it matters
PGA Tour
The professional golf circuit and season.
Contains many tournaments across the year.
PGA Championship
A separate annual major championship.
It is not the PGA Tour season finale.
FedExCup
The season-long points competition.
Determines qualification for the playoffs.
TOUR Championship
The final event of the FedExCup Playoffs.
It concludes the main FedExCup season.
What are golf prediction markets?
Golf prediction markets allow traders to buy event contracts on specific golfers in a golf tournament. They can take contracts on a specific golfer to win, or go into derivative markets like top five, top 10, or first round leader.
Since there is only one winner of each tournament, the odds of winning are priced pretty slim all around, which converts into some pretty high prices if you have one that hits.
For example, Scottie Scheffler was the favorite to win the Pebble Beach Pro Am this season, with roughly a 25% chance to do so. That’s equal to 25 cents for a contract or +250 odds. Pricing is also subject to market mechanics, liquidity, fees and the contract rules.
The percentage also reflects the traders’ view of that event occurring. It’s subject to change if more traders take a contract at that price and move the market. Contracts settle at either $0 or $1, depending on the outcome.
There are multiple ways to take a position on a golfer you like in an upcoming tournament. Once you’ve done your research, you’ll find which method of victory works best for you. The PGA Tour odds for each golfer will reflect their course fit, and recent form of play.
Tournament winner markets
This contract is strictly for the golfer who wins the tournament. It only cashes if the golfer has the lowest score at the end of the tournament.
Top-five markets
Top-five markets cover any golfer that finishes in the top-five places in the tournament. Be sure to check the rules for your contract though. Sometimes, there will be several golfers tied for fifth and it may affect your payout. There is a straight up top-five bet where you’ll be subject to dead-heat rules, or it could be “top five include ties.”
Top-10 markets
Top-10 markets will mirror the same rules as a top-five contract, but there’s a wider range of outcomes. The further you go down from winner, to top-five, to top-10, the higher the price of the contract that you’ll have to take.
What moves PGA Tour prediction market prices?
Recent tournament form and round-by-round performance.
Course suitability and historical performance at the venue.
Injuries, withdrawals, or other player-availability news.
Weather and changing playing conditions.
A golfer’s position on the live leaderboard.
Performance by other contenders, particularly during later rounds.
Golf markets can reprice rigorously based on what is going on in the tournament. You’ll see a price dip if their tee shot lands in the bunker, just like you’ll see the price rise if they drive the green. It’s important to know the context of play before taking any positions in a specific tournament.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship is played at TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN.
When does the PGA Tour season start?
It starts in January each year and runs until August.
What is the TOUR Championship?
The TOUR Championship is the final of the three FedEx Cup championship tournaments.
What is the PGA Tour?
The PGA Tour is the governing body for professional golf. They set up all the events, rules, regulations, and fields.
How do you understand golf odds?
A 25 cent contract is equal to 25% chance of the golfer to win that event.
How accurate are prediction markets?
Prediction markets make pricing decisions based on the money taken in by the traders. Its accuracy reflects decisions made by the traders themselves.
Important Information: Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG) Crypto.com | Derivatives North America and uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.
Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.
