Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts prediction, start time and team news on Nov. 15, 2026

Two struggling teams meet in Dolphins vs Colts on Sunday, November 15, 2026, in NFL Week 10, and the quarterback change shapes how much the Dolphins can lean on their defense. The Dolphins (1-7) placed Malik Willis on injured reserve Tuesday, which gives Kyle McCord his first NFL start at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Colts (2-7) bring their own problems. They have lost five straight, sit near the bottom of the league in turnover margin and traded wide receivers Keenan Allen and Josh Downs before Tuesday's deadline. The Colts still hold the market's edge, but their mistakes keep the Dolphins within reach.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

When is Dolphins vs Colts?

• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
• Competition: NFL, Week 10
• Home team: Colts
• Dolphins win: 36%
• Colts win: 66%

Other games on the Sunday slate are listed in the daily sports prediction markets schedule.

What is the Dolphins vs Colts prediction?

The Colts are favorites at 66% on OG.com prediction markets, with the Dolphins at 36%. Market data as of November 11, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

The case for the Colts starts with what the Dolphins can't yet do. The Dolphins average 15.8 points per game, 31st in the league, and their passing offense gains 165 yards per game, 30th. They have scored more than 20 points in two of their last five games, and McCord takes over without a regular-season pass attempt.

The Dolphins' route runs through Colts mistakes. Daniel Jones has thrown 10 interceptions in nine games. The Dolphins' defense held a Lions offense averaging 29 points to 19 on November 8, and it can keep this game low-scoring if Jones hands it extra possessions.

The strongest supported read is that the Colts are the more complete team but the less careful one. Their defense allows 27.7 points per game, 30th in the league, so Jones needs a clean afternoon. A few giveaways would put a tight finish in play, and the Dolphins have played four of their last five games within eight points.

Dolphins vs Colts win probabilities

• Dolphins win: 36%
• Colts win: 66%

These percentages reflect the market's expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. Prediction market prices show implied probabilities that can change as traders react to new information. Check the contract terms to see how a tie after overtime is handled.

How could Dolphins vs Colts unfold?

The game plan for each side starts with the running backs, and the Colts' run defense against the Dolphins' ground game is the clearest mismatch.

Jonathan Taylor gives the Colts a direct way to shorten the game. He has 656 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 161 carries (4.1 yards per carry), and he stayed with the team through the trade deadline. Long Colts drives would also keep McCord on the sideline in his debut.

Ollie Gordon II is the Dolphins' answer. He has 463 yards and four touchdowns on 107 carries and ran 25 times for 103 yards in the October 25 win at the Jets, the Dolphins' only victory. The Colts allow 137 rushing yards per game, 30th in the league, and gave up 183 at Jacksonville on November 1.

Willis added a second runner, with 232 rushing yards and three touchdowns, so defenses must now load up on Gordon and dare McCord to win on early downs. If Gordon gets going, the Dolphins can lean on their defense. If he stalls, the Dolphins will need McCord to produce points the offense hasn't been finding.

What is the latest team news?

Both rosters changed this week, and the injury designations below can still move before kickoff.

What is the latest on the Dolphins?

Willis has a core muscle injury and will miss at least four games, with Week 14 against the Bears the earliest he can return, according to NFL.com. McCord, 24 and in his second season, is in line to start. In three preseason games with the Packers he completed 46 of 70 passes for 446 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, according to CBS Sports. Brady Cook is likely to serve as the backup.

Defensive tackle Zach Sieler, a team captain, is out for the season with a ruptured biceps, per ESPN. Running back Jaylen Wright and tight end Will Kacmarek are listed as questionable with quadriceps injuries, and cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. is out, according to ESPN's injury feed.

What is the latest on the Colts?

The Colts sent Allen to the 49ers and Downs to the Chiefs on Tuesday and signed wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to the 53-man roster. Their unofficial depth chart lists Laquon Treadwell, Westbrook-Ikhine, Anthony Gould, Ashton Dulin and Deion Burks at receiver, with Alec Pierce sidelined by a heel injury. Tight end Tyler Warren leads the team with 38 catches for 275 yards.

Jones stayed with the Colts after trade talks, per ESPN. Right tackle Jalen Travis is doubtful with a knee injury, while cornerback Justin Walley, linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither, safety A.J. Haulcy and tight end Mo Alie-Cox are questionable, according to ESPN's injury feed.

What could decide Dolphins vs Colts?

Three questions carry the most weight, and each one begins with a quarterback or a turnover.

Can McCord move the Dolphins into scoring range?

The Dolphins have converted 8 of 14 red zone trips over its last five games, but it went 0 for 3 in the 19-9 loss to Detroit on November 8. The Dolphins convert 41.6% of third downs. The Colts' best defensive number is third down, where opponents convert 32.4%, fifth in the league, so McCord will need early-down success to stay out of long yardage.

Can the Colts stop giving the ball away?

The Colts' turnover margin is minus-11, tied for 31st, on 17 giveaways. They committed three turnovers in both the loss to the Titans on October 18 and the loss at Jacksonville, and nine across their last five games. The Dolphins have only seven takeaways, 30th in the league, so the Dolphins' defense will need the Colts to make the plays for it.

Who will Jones target after the deadline trades?

Jones has completed 182 of 302 passes for 1,722 yards, six touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and the Colts' passing offense gains 174 yards per game, 27th. The Dolphins allow 214 passing yards per game and have 12 sacks, tied for 31st, with Chop Robinson leading the team at four. Jones should get time, so the question is whether Warren and a new-look receiver group can turn that time into completions.

What could move Dolphins vs Colts prediction?

The first item is the Colts' offensive line, since a doubtful Travis would force a backup into the lineup against a Dolphins front missing Sieler. The second is the Dolphins' skill group, because Wright, Kacmarek and Baker are all listed with designations that final injury reports will settle. Any change to McCord's role or the Dolphins' backup plan would also shift the picture.

Late news is common in sports prediction markets, where contract prices update as traders weigh each report. A limit order lets a trader set the price at which a contract fills.

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