Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants prediction and odds

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants begin the season with the same opponent that ended each team's last one.

The Giants' 34-17 victory in January stopped a 14-game Dak Prescott winning streak against them and gave Dart the strongest finish of his rookie year. It was also their fourth win in a 4-13 season. Dallas left with a 7-9-1 record, another productive Prescott offense and a defense that had allowed more points than any previous Cowboys team.

Both sides have spent the offseason trying to change that balance. Dallas rebuilt its defensive front around Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark, Rashan Gary and Von Miller.

The Giants hired John Harbaugh, surrounded Dart with a deeper offense and retained Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux as an unusually flexible group of edge rushers.

The Cowboys still have the more established quarterback and the best proven receiver pairing in the game. The Giants have home advantage, a new structure and a young quarterback who can turn one lost pass-rush lane into 20 yards. This does not look like a comfortable opener.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants game snapshot

• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Competition: NFL
• Week: 1
• Home team: New York Giants
• Dallas Cowboys win: 60%
• New York Giants win: 41%

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants prediction

Prediction markets for Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants currently make the Cowboys 60% favorites, with the Giants at 41%.

Market data as of September 4, 2026. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.

Dallas deserves the lead. Prescott started all 17 games last season, threw for 4,552 yards and led the league with 404 completions.

CeeDee Lamb produced a fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season despite missing three games, while George Pickens caught 93 passes for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns.

That combination asks a defense to make an uncomfortable choice. Shade help toward Lamb and Pickens receives more isolated coverage. Keep both safeties deep and Javonte Williams can run into a lighter box behind Tyler Smith, Cooper Beebe and Tyler Booker.

The Cowboys scored 471 points in 2025. Their 7-9-1 record was not the result of an offense that could not move the ball.

The Giants have better answers in the secondary than they did when Dallas won the first meeting 40-37 last September.

Paulson Adebo and Greg Newsome II join Deonte Banks and Dru Phillips at cornerback, with Jevón Holland and Tyler Nubin behind them. New defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson can vary who follows Lamb into the slot and who receives help over the top.

Coverage can only hold for so long, though. The Giants' stronger route is to prevent Prescott from reaching the deeper parts of the progression.

Burns finished 2025 with 16.5 sacks. Carter had only four sacks as a rookie but recorded 23 quarterback hits, and Thibodeaux gives Wilson a third starting-caliber edge defender.

Dallas enters Week 1 with Tyler Guyton established at left tackle and a competition between Terence Steele and Broderick Jones on the right. The Giants can move their rushers until they find the matchup they want.

Dart presents a different problem for Dallas. He threw 15 touchdown passes against five interceptions as a rookie and added 487 yards and nine scores on the ground. Christian Parker's first Cowboys defense cannot rush him as if he were a stationary target. The edges must squeeze the pocket without opening an escape lane, and the interior must keep Dart from stepping through.

Malik Nabers changes the ceiling of that offense if his return from a season-ending knee injury holds through game week. He can win outside, cross the field or take a short completion beyond the first tackler.

Darnell Mooney and Darius Slayton add vertical speed, Isaiah Likely can work the seams, and Cam Skattebo gives the backfield a physical runner who fits Harbaugh's preferred style.

The Giants have enough to make Dallas defend every level. They also have more to prove. Dart is beginning his second season in a new offense, Nabers has not played a regular-season snap since last September and rookie Francis Mauigoa is projected to start at right guard.

Dallas has greater continuity at quarterback and more established ways to create explosive passes. The Giants can overturn that hierarchy by making Prescott uncomfortable and letting Dart's movement pull the rebuilt Cowboys defense out of shape.

The favorite has the broader route. The underdog has a very real one.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants odds

• Dallas Cowboys win: 60%
• New York Giants win: 41%

The prices make Dallas the favorite despite the Giants' home advantage. A 19-point gap is meaningful, but it is not the profile of a one-sided matchup.

The Cowboys' price is built primarily on offense. Prescott, Lamb, Pickens, Williams and Jake Ferguson return from a group that averaged 27.7 points per game. Dallas can attack outside, underneath or on the ground without changing personnel dramatically.

The Giants' 41% reflects both the uncertainty around a four-win team and the possibility that their offseason changes produce an immediate jump. Harbaugh brings a different program, Matt Nagy takes over the offense and Wilson inherits a defense with multiple ways to create pressure. Dart no longer enters as a rookie trying to stabilize a season already in trouble.

The division context also keeps the gap in perspective. Our 2026 NFL predictions and season outlook places both teams behind Philadelphia in the NFC East discussion, which makes a direct opening-night win especially useful. It would not decide the division. It would immediately improve one team's position within it.

These figures are market-implied probabilities, not guarantees. Readers who want more context on pressure rate, turnover differential and other measures used in matchup analysis can consult our guide to NFL statistics.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants game outlook

Dallas can begin by testing the part of the Giants' defense that changed most.

The Giants traded Dexter Lawrence during the offseason and now have DJ Reader, Shelby Harris and Darius Alexander among the primary interior linemen.

That group has size, but it has not played a regular-season game together. Williams can press inside while Dallas uses motion and condensed formations to make the linebackers declare their gaps.

A useful run game would slow the edge pressure and keep Prescott out of long-yardage situations. It would also invite a safety closer to the line, creating the one-on-one throws Lamb and Pickens want.

Dallas does not need to force those passes. Lamb can move across the formation, release from stacks and attack the space underneath split-safety coverage.

Pickens can stay outside and challenge the cornerback vertically. Ferguson becomes important when the Giants widen to both receivers; option routes against the linebackers can keep the offense ahead of schedule.

Wilson has enough pass rushers to make the protection rules difficult. Burns and Carter can align on opposite edges, then Thibodeaux can join them in a five-man front or reduce inside on passing downs. The Giants do not have to blitz to create an overloaded picture.

Prescott's response should be quick and controlled. If he identifies the rotation before the snap and gets the ball out, the Giants risk using their most dangerous defenders as decoration. If Dallas repeatedly reaches third-and-8, the Giants can make every protection decision feel urgent.

The Cowboys' new defense faces a different kind of first test. Parker has Williams and Clark to close the middle, Gary and Miller on the edges, and a secondary led by DaRon Bland. The names are impressive. The communication is new.

Harbaugh and Nagy can probe that communication with personnel changes. Skattebo and fullback Patrick Ricard can create a heavy surface, while Likely or Theo Johnson releases into a route after showing run action. Dallas must fit the run without losing track of the tight end behind the linebackers.

Dart's legs add another number to the equation. On zone-read plays, an edge defender who follows Skattebo can give the quarterback the perimeter. On play action, Gary or Miller must balance the rush with contain. Dart does not need 10 designed runs to alter the defense. Two early keepers may be enough.

Nabers is the cleanest passing answer. Dallas can use Bland in primary coverage, but following Nabers across the formation may reveal whether the defense is in man or zone. Mooney and Slayton can then clear space with vertical routes. Beckham gives the Giants another experienced receiver, although his precise Week 1 role is less certain after making the roster late in the summer.

The Giants' offensive line has a difficult interior assignment. Andrew Thomas remains the foundation at left tackle, and Jermaine Eluemunor is expected on the right. Inside, Jon Runyan Jr., John Michael Schmitz Jr. and Mauigoa must handle Williams and Clark without constant help.

If Dallas collapses the pocket through the middle, Dart loses the space needed to use his speed. If the Giants' interior holds, the quarterback can step forward and force the edge defenders to turn back toward him.

That is where the game may separate. Dallas wants Prescott operating from a clean, repeatable platform. The Giants want both quarterbacks playing outside structure.

Team news and injuries

Dallas Cowboys

Prescott is the confirmed starting quarterback after playing every game in 2025. Sam Howell is the primary backup on the active roster, while Joe Milton returned on the practice squad after being waived at the roster deadline.

Lamb and Pickens remain the leading receivers, with Ryan Flournoy, KaVontae Turpin, Jonathan Mingo and Camden Brown behind them.

Williams leads the backfield after rushing for 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Malik Davis and recently claimed Emari Demercado provide alternative profiles, and Hunter Luepke can line up as a fullback or in a hybrid role.

Four offensive-line positions appear settled: Guyton at left tackle, Smith at left guard, Beebe at center and Booker at right guard. Steele entered the final phase of camp as the first option at right tackle, but newly acquired Broderick Jones is competing for the job. Dallas may also use Jones as a swing tackle if Steele starts.

The defensive personnel has been transformed around Parker. Quinnen Williams and Clark anchor the interior, with Gary, Miller and Donovan Ezeiruaku among the edge options. Caleb Downs joins Malik Hooker and Jalen Thompson at safety, while Bland, Cobie Durant and Shavon Revel Jr. lead the cornerback group.

Linebacker Marist Liufau is on injured reserve with a return designation following surgery on a fractured forearm. He must miss at least the first four games. Devin Moore has the same designation at cornerback because of a hip injury.

New York Giants

Dart is the confirmed starter, with Jameis Winston as the other quarterback on the active roster. Harbaugh's staff includes Nagy as offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan as passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach, and Greg Roman as a senior offensive assistant. The combined influence should be visible in the run design and the number of ways the Giants move Dart's launch point.

Nabers made the active roster after spending the offseason recovering from the knee injury that ended his 2025 season in Week 4. No official Week 1 game designation has been issued. His participation and workload will be among the most important pieces of team news once the Giants begin their formal game-week practices.

Mooney, Slayton, Beckham and rookie Malachi Fields complete the active receiver group. Calvin Austin III suffered a torn ACL late in August and is on season-ending injured reserve. His absence removes one of the offense's fastest slot options.

Skattebo sits at the front of a crowded backfield that also includes Tyrone Tracy Jr., Najee Harris and Devin Singletary. A rotation is more likely than one conventional every-down role. Ricard allows the Giants to change the formation without substituting, while Likely, Johnson, Chris Manhertz and rookie Thomas Fidone II provide several tight-end combinations.

The expected offensive line is Thomas, Runyan, Schmitz, Mauigoa and Eluemunor. Mauigoa is the new piece after the Giants selected him with the first-round pick acquired in the Lawrence trade.

Wilson's defense is deepest on the edge. Burns, Carter and Thibodeaux can rotate or share the field. The secondary has also changed through the additions of Newsome and Holland, while cornerback Korie Black is on injured reserve with a return designation and will miss at least four games.

Key factors that could decide Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants

Can the Giants' edge rush disrupt Dak Prescott without blitzing?

The Giants' best defensive advantage is the number of credible rushers they can send from four-man fronts. Burns, Carter and Thibodeaux can stay fresh and move across the formation. Dallas must settle the right-tackle role and communicate every exchange.

If the Giants create pressure without an extra rusher, they can keep seven defenders in coverage against Lamb, Pickens and Ferguson. If they need to blitz, Prescott can identify the vacated space and deliver quickly.

How does Dallas cover Malik Nabers?

Nabers produced 167 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting last season. He can win against outside leverage, but his movement into the slot makes a fixed matchup difficult.

Bland is Dallas' leading cornerback, yet Parker may prefer bracket coverage on clear passing downs. That would leave Mooney, Slayton or Likely with isolated opportunities elsewhere. Nabers can influence the game even when the ball goes to someone else.

Can Jaxson Dart stay patient against a new defense?

Dart's running ability is a weapon. It can also tempt him to leave clean pockets before a route develops.

Dallas will try to change the picture after the snap, close the obvious escape lanes and make him reach later reads. Dart does not need to create something dramatic on every series. Completions to the backs and tight ends can keep the Giants out of the third downs that release Gary and Miller.

Does Dallas establish Javonte Williams early?

Williams gave the Cowboys a stable running game in 2025 and scored in the 40-37 win over the Giants. The Lawrence trade changes the center of the Giants' defensive front.

Dallas can test that new group immediately. Four- and five-yard runs are enough if they keep the full playbook open and prevent the edge rush from attacking Prescott without hesitation.

Can the Giants' interior line handle Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark?

The Giants have one rookie in the expected starting five. Dallas has two established interior defenders capable of forcing the pocket backward.

Mauigoa's power should help in the run game, but his first regular-season assignment demands clean work with Schmitz and Eluemunor. One missed handoff on a stunt can put Williams directly in Dart's path.

Which rebuilt defense communicates more cleanly?

Both coordinators are installing new systems around significant personnel changes. Week 1 often exposes hesitation: a cornerback expecting safety help, a linebacker fitting the wrong gap or two rushers choosing the same lane.

The offenses are equipped to punish those errors. Prescott will attack a coverage bust. Dart can escape a poorly coordinated rush. The defense that avoids free yardage may decide a close game.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants head-to-head

The teams split their two meetings in 2025, and both games revealed something relevant to this opener.

Dallas won the first 40-37 in overtime. Prescott threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns, Lamb had 113 receiving yards and Pickens added 68 yards and a score. The Giants produced 506 yards themselves, including 167 from Nabers, but settled for field goals on four trips and committed 14 penalties.

The Giants answered with a 34-17 win in Week 18. Dart completed 22 of 32 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns, then added 32 rushing yards. Tracy produced a career-high 159 yards from scrimmage. The result ended Prescott's 14-game winning streak against the Giants and left him 14-3 in his career against them.

The quarterback context has changed from the first game, when Russell Wilson started for the Giants, and both defenses have been rebuilt. The useful carryover is the stress each offense created. Dallas repeatedly found favorable throws for its receivers; the Giants generated explosive plays and made the Cowboys defend the entire field.

This opener should not reproduce either score. It can reproduce the same pressure points.

What could move Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants odds?

Nabers' practice participation is the clearest personnel variable for the Giants. A full week would strengthen the expectation that they can use him across the formation. Any limitation would place more responsibility on Mooney, Slayton, Beckham and the tight ends.

The Giants' offensive line is just as important. Thomas has dealt with significant injuries in recent seasons, and Mauigoa is preparing for his first regular-season game. Any late change across that group would make the assignments against Williams, Clark and the Dallas edge rotation considerably harder.

For the Cowboys, the right-tackle decision will help define how they plan to handle Burns and Carter. Steele offers continuity. Jones offers a new option but less time in the offense. An injury or clear starter announcement could change the expected protection plan.

Dallas' rebuilt defense also carries several new relationships into its first game. Practice participation for Williams, Clark, Gary, Miller, Bland and the leading safeties will determine whether Parker can use the full package or must simplify it.

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