Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder prediction, team news and lineups on Nov. 4, 2026

The Cavaliers at Thunder game on Wednesday, Nov. 4, pairs two 4-2 teams moving in opposite directions. The Cavaliers have won four of their last five games, while the Thunder have lost two straight after a 4-0 start.

The Thunder are without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace, so the inside scoring of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen meets a thin Thunder lineup. The Cavaliers are 1-2 on the road this season, and the Thunder are 3-0 at home.

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When is Cavaliers at Thunder?

• Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
• Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. CT
• Competition: NBA, 2026–27 regular season
• Home team: Thunder
• Other meeting: Monday, November 2, 2026, 7 p.m. ET in Cleveland

Monday's game in Cleveland is one of several NBA and college basketball games on the daily sports prediction markets schedule that day.

What is the Cavaliers at Thunder prediction?

The Cavaliers are favorites at 57%, with the Thunder at 54%. These percentages reflect the market's expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. Prediction market prices can change as traders react to new information. Market data as of November 2, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

The Cavaliers' edge starts with who is missing. Holmgren averaged 3.0 blocks in his three games, and with him, Williams and Wallace out, Isaiah Hartenstein is the only center in the Thunder's starting five. The Cavaliers have two bigs in form to test that group.

The Thunder's route runs through the paint and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the two-time reigning MVP. A depleted roster still has its MVP, and the Cavaliers have allowed more paint points than they scored in three of their last five games.

The full game winner is one of several sports prediction markets on this game, which also lists half and quarter winners. It resolves when the game ends and the winner is determined.

How could Cavaliers at Thunder unfold?

The same two teams meet Monday in Cleveland, so Wednesday's game in Oklahoma City is a rematch within 48 hours.

The Cavaliers' plan is simple and recently effective. At Milwaukee on Oct. 31, Mobley made 11 of 16 shots for 27 points and Allen made 12 of 16 for 25, and the Cavaliers outscored the Bucks 60-46 in the paint. Allen said the coaches told the team to "reward the bigs" after he and Mobley combined for only 17 shots in a 114-111 loss at Atlanta on Oct. 29.

The Thunder's answer is to win the paint themselves. They outscored opponents there in each of their last five games, 248-182 in total, and scored 64 paint points against the Clippers. The Cavaliers have allowed 250 paint points in their last five games, including 66 to Washington and 58 to Minnesota.

Help is the cost of attacking either way. When a defense sends a second defender at a big man near the rim, the pass goes to a perimeter shooter, and the Cavaliers have made 38.8% of their threes over their last five games. The Thunder have to choose between leaving Hartenstein alone against Mobley and Allen and giving up open shots to a team that is making them.

What is the latest team news?

The Thunder have six players out for Monday's game, and Wednesday's designations have not been released for either team.

What is the latest on the Cavaliers?

Jaylon Tyson (right ankle sprain) is out and missed the win at Milwaukee. Nae'Qwan Tomlin (low back stress reaction) is also out.

Peyton Watson is listed as questionable for Monday with right hamstring tightness. He has started each of the Cavaliers' last five games and scored 22 points against Washington on Oct. 28.

Meleek Thomas returned at Milwaukee after missing one game with right foot soreness and scored 13 points in 23 minutes.

What is the latest on the Thunder?

The Thunder announced Holmgren will miss eight to 10 weeks with a right patellar tendon tear. Williams (fractured left fibula, dislocated left ankle) and Wallace (torn left labrum) have been out since the Oct. 25 win over the Clippers.

Alex Caruso (right ankle sprain), Thomas Sorber (right knee) and Nikola Topic (low back surgery) are also out for Monday. ESPN lists Nov. 4 as the estimated return for Caruso and Sorber.

What are the projected starting lineups?

The Cavaliers have started the same five in each of their last five games, while the Thunder have changed theirs since Oct. 25.

How could the Cavaliers line up?

Projected starting five:

• James Harden
• Donovan Mitchell
• Peyton Watson
• Evan Mobley
• Jarrett Allen

This projection assumes Watson is available. Sam Merrill, who scored 16 points in 27 minutes at Atlanta, and Mario Hezonja, who had 11 rebounds at Milwaukee, are the reserves who could take his minutes.

How could the Thunder line up?

Projected starting five:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• Jared McCain
• Ajay Mitchell
• Kenrich Williams
• Isaiah Hartenstein

This is the group that started at Houston on Oct. 31 and assumes no one returns from the injury list. Bennett Stirtz, who scored 11 points in 26 minutes in that game, is the reserve guard to watch.

What could decide Cavaliers at Thunder?

The Cavaliers have shot the ball well from three-point range while the Thunder have not, and that gap sets up the first question.

Can the Thunder keep up from three-point range?

The Thunder have made 46 of 163 threes (28.2%) in their last five games, and their opponents have made 75 of 204 (36.8%). In the two losses, Dallas made 16 of 45 and Houston made 18 of 41 while the Thunder shot 15 of 64 combined.

The Cavaliers' opponents have made 75 of 215 (34.9%) in the same stretch, a lower rate than the Thunder's defense has allowed, so the Thunder need their own shooting to climb.

Can the Thunder force turnovers again?

The Thunder forced 22 turnovers against Denver and 26 against the Clippers, and they scored 19 of their 44 fast-break points in the last five games against the Clippers. In the two losses, Dallas and Houston turned the ball over only 11 and 10 times.

The Cavaliers have committed 13 or fewer turnovers in four straight games after 23 against Brooklyn on Oct. 24. The Cavaliers have been outscored on the fast break in four of their last five games (51-73 in total), which gives the Thunder a route if the pressure returns.

Can Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain share the scoring load?

Mitchell scored 59 points across the Thunder's two games before Houston, then had six against the Rockets. McCain scored 18 against Phoenix and 10 in each of the next two games, and he missed all five of his three-point attempts at Houston.

The Cavaliers' guards give the Thunder little room for a quiet night. Harden and Donovan Mitchell attempted only 15 shots combined at Milwaukee because the bigs took over, but Harden scored 24 at Atlanta and Mitchell scored 26 against Minnesota when the offense ran through them.

What could move Cavaliers at Thunder prediction?

Watson's hamstring and Caruso's ankle are the pending decisions with a direct basketball effect. Watson started every recent game, and his absence would move Merrill or Hezonja into a wing role against Gilgeous-Alexander and Mitchell.

Caruso averaged 9.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists off the bench before the sprain. His return would add a ballhandler and perimeter defender to a Thunder rotation that has lost two guards and a forward from its best lineup.

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