Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores prediction, start time and team news on Nov. 14, 2026

Alabama at Vanderbilt pits the No. 7 Crimson Tide (7-2, 5-2 SEC) in the AP Top 25 against a Commodores team (4-5, 1-5) that snapped a five-game losing streak at Mississippi State last Saturday. Alabama won 31-13 at LSU and remains in the College Football Playoff picture, according to the AP.

Kickoff is set for 12:45 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 14, at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville. Alabama arrives with quarterback Keelon Russell day-to-day with an ankle injury and tight end Josh Ford likely lost for the season, while Vanderbilt is trying to turn its run game into a steadier plan.

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When is Alabama vs Vanderbilt?

• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Kickoff: 12:45 p.m. ET
• Competition: College football
• Home team: Vanderbilt
• Alabama win: 94%
• Vanderbilt win: 16%

What is the Alabama vs Vanderbilt prediction?

The Crimson Tide are favorites at 94%, with the Commodores at 16%. Those prices reflect implied probabilities from OG.com prediction traders, not guaranteed outcomes, and they can change as traders react to new information. Market data as of November 10, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

Alabama's case starts with scoring and turnovers. The Crimson Tide average 37.4 points per game, while Vanderbilt allows 29.4, which is tied for 109th nationally. Alabama also has 13 interceptions, tied for fourth, and Vanderbilt has thrown nine, tied for 113th. The four turnovers in Alabama's 26-10 loss at Tennessee on October 17 show how quickly that edge can disappear.

Vanderbilt's case is about the clock. At Mississippi State, the Commodores ran for 160 yards, held the ball for 39:55 and limited the Bulldogs to 297 total yards. Alabama allowed 77 rushing yards at LSU but gave up 206 to Georgia and 150 to Tennessee, so a run-heavy plan has some support.

The assessment changes if Russell cannot start. DeBoer said Monday he has confidence in backup Austin Mack. Russell has 18 touchdown passes against five interceptions, and Alabama gains more yards through the air (254 per game) than on the ground (144).

Alabama vs Vanderbilt win probabilities

• Alabama win: 94%
• Vanderbilt win: 16%

Alabama's 94% price covers a quarterback decision and a tight end loss that are still open. Vanderbilt's 16% belongs to a team that has won one of its last six games but has scored 25 points or fewer in each of its last five.

How could Alabama vs Vanderbilt unfold?

The game plays out through Vanderbilt's ground game and Alabama's ability to keep its offense on schedule without Ford.

How does Vanderbilt try to shorten the game?

The Commodores average 112 rushing yards per game, 123rd nationally, and Alabama allows 105, 22nd. Sedrick Alexander leads Vanderbilt with 333 yards and six touchdowns on 85 carries. He and Makhilyn Young carried 21 and 15 times at Mississippi State.

Coach Clark Lea said after the bye week that his team wants to control possession and finish drives in the end zone. A lead for Alabama would test that plan, because Vanderbilt has not topped 25 points in any of its last five games.

Where is Alabama vulnerable?

Alabama was outgained 457-285 at LSU yet won because it committed no turnovers and stopped LSU on downs twice in the fourth quarter. The Crimson Tide allow 240 passing yards per game, 111th nationally, and gave up 380 net passing yards to LSU.

The offense has its own pressure points. Alabama has allowed 25 sacks, tied for 116th, and Vanderbilt has 19 sacks, led by Issa Ouattara with four. Without Ford, who helped Alabama use two or more tight ends on 49.1% of snaps, according to 247Sports, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said Danny Lewis Jr. is next up, with Kaleb Edwards and Jay Lindsey in bigger roles.

What is the latest team news?

Alabama carries the longer list of open questions, and Vanderbilt is still adjusting its lineup after its open week. The SEC's first availability report for this game is expected Wednesday.

What is the latest on Alabama?

Russell hurt his ankle against LSU, went to the injury tent, returned and finished with three touchdown passes. DeBoer called him day-to-day on Monday and said he expects Russell to do everything he can to play. Alabama has not named a starter.

Ford, who caught a seven-yard touchdown against LSU, is out for the season with a lower-body injury, according to ESPN. DeBoer said the injury can be season-ending. Offensive lineman Will Sanders is still working back, and DeBoer said he needs improvement this week to be competitive at the level Alabama needs.

Cornerback Zabien Brown has a lower-extremity injury and is day-to-day, DeBoer said. BVM Sports reported he is expected to play.

What is the latest on Vanderbilt?

Curtis threw for 168 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions at Mississippi State. Vanderbilt's availability report for that game listed backup Blaze Berlowitz as out and did not list Curtis. Running back Evan Hampton (fractured leg) and linebacker Josiah Broxton (torn ACL) are out for the season, according to Lea.

After the open week, Vanderbilt made depth chart changes. Freshman Mitchell Smith is the starter at strong guard, Martel Hight moved from cornerback to wide receiver and Dontae Carter moved from safety to cornerback, according to The Tennessean.

What could decide Alabama vs Vanderbilt?

Three matchups carry the most weight on Saturday, and each depends on a team news item that is still unsettled.

Can Alabama protect the ball and its quarterback?

Alabama's loss at Tennessee came with four turnovers and 201 total yards. Vanderbilt has 19 sacks and six interceptions in nine games, so the Commodores' pressure is a larger test than their takeaway numbers suggest. Sanders' status and Russell's ankle both sit behind that question.

Can Vanderbilt finish drives?

Kicker Brock Taylor made six field goals at Mississippi State, including a 55-yarder, and Vanderbilt converted 4 of 17 third downs. The Commodores score 23.0 points per game, and Alabama's defense allows 20.3 while holding opponents to 33.6% on third down, 31st nationally.

Can Alabama's secondary hold up?

Vanderbilt receiver Junior Sherrill has 56 catches for 747 yards and four touchdowns, including 107 yards at Georgia. Alabama's 111th-ranked pass defense meets a Curtis who has thrown eight interceptions with eight touchdowns, so the Crimson Tide's 13 interceptions give them a counter. Brown's status adds another unknown in the secondary.

What does the Alabama vs Vanderbilt head-to-head history show?

Alabama leads the series 64-19-4, according to Sports Illustrated. Vanderbilt beat the then No. 1 Crimson Tide 40-35 in Nashville in 2024, and Alabama won 30-14 at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 4, 2025. Alabama's Ty Simpson threw for 340 yards in that game, but both teams now start different quarterbacks, so the passing numbers say little about this meeting.

What could move Alabama vs Vanderbilt market price?

The biggest open item is Russell. A questionable listing on Wednesday's SEC availability report, or Mack named as the starter, would change the quarterback picture behind Alabama's 94%.

The same report will show whether Sanders and Brown are listed and whether Vanderbilt lists Curtis. Prices can move quickly when news lands, and limit orders let traders set the price at which they are willing to buy.

Saturday's game is one of many college football markets, and the daily sports prediction markets list shows the full slate. Traders new to this category can read how sports prediction markets work before following a game.

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