Who will win the F1 2026 Drivers' Championship? Prediction and odds
Kimi Antonelli now has a 99% market-implied probability of winning the 2026 F1 Drivers’ Championship, with a 102-point lead and a first title opportunity in Austin.
Motorsports
By Chris Old
Max Verstappen won everything that carried points in Singapore. Kimi Antonelli still left with a bigger lead over his nearest championship rival.
Verstappen followed his Malaysia victory by winning Singapore’s Sprint and Grand Prix, collecting the maximum 33 points. Antonelli took 20 through fourth in the Sprint and third on Sunday, while George Russell managed just two across the weekend.
The outcome captures the championship’s unusual position. Red Bull has become a much stronger threat to Mercedes on track, but Antonelli’s earlier results have given him enough protection to keep moving toward the title without winning.
He can now become champion at the United States Grand Prix.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 F1 championship?
Prediction markets for Drivers’ Champion 2026 give Antonelli a 99% market-implied probability of winning the title. Among the featured challengers, Verstappen is at 3%, Leclerc and Hamilton at , and Russell at .
2%
1%
Kimi Antonelli — 99%
Max Verstappen — 3%
Charles Leclerc — 2%
Lewis Hamilton — 2%
George Russell — 1%
Market data as of October 12, 2026. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
Antonelli’s probability reflects the combination of a substantial points lead and a rapidly shortening season. He has six races left to defend an advantage that none of his rivals can close through occasional wins.
The interesting distinction is further down the market. Russell remains second in the standings, yet his displayed probability is lower than those of Verstappen, Leclerc and Hamilton.
Current points explain how far each driver must climb, but they do not tell the whole story about momentum and who looks capable of making that climb.
F1 Drivers’ Championship 2026 standings
After the Singapore Grand Prix, the leading drivers are:
Position
Driver
Team
Points
Behind Antonelli
1
Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes
340
—
2
George Russell
Mercedes
238
102
3
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari
229
111
4
Max Verstappen
Red Bull
221
119
5
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari
215
125
6
Lando Norris
McLaren
201
139
7
Oscar Piastri
McLaren
138
202
Standings as of October 12, 2026. Gaps calculated from the official points totals.
Six Grands Prix remain, with 150 points available to a driver who wins all six. Singapore hosted the final Sprint, so there are no further Sprint points to add.
Who can still win the F1 championship in 2026?
Antonelli, Russell, Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc and Norris remain mathematically in contention. Piastri is eliminated: his 202-point deficit exceeds the 150 points available.
Remember that Antonelli currently has 340 points. The maximum final totals for Antonelli’s remaining challengers are:
Driver
Current points
Maximum final total
George Russell
238
388
Lewis Hamilton
229
379
Max Verstappen
221
371
Charles Leclerc
215
365
Lando Norris
201
351
Calculated from the current standings, assuming six full-points Grand Prix victories.
These ceilings show why mathematical contention and a credible comeback are different things. A challenger can still reach a winning total, but only if Antonelli scores sufficiently few points—and the other contenders do not collect too many themselves.
Why is Antonelli so far ahead in prediction markets?
Antonelli has won eight of the opening 17 Grands Prix. Mercedes has won 11 between him and Russell, building the points advantage before Red Bull’s recent resurgence.
Singapore showed how that advantage can survive a weekend when Mercedes is beaten.
Antonelli had concerns about his brakes and reported fluid around his feet, but used the closing battle between Hamilton and Norris to improve his position and finish third. That was a valuable recovery.
The arithmetic now gives him considerable room.
To demonstrate the advantage: if Russell wins all six remaining races and Antonelli finishes second each time, Russell gains 42 points. Antonelli would still finish 60 points ahead.
Antonelli therefore does not need to restore Mercedes’ earlier superiority to remain strongly placed. Regular high finishes could be enough. His rivals need much larger swings.
Why is Russell rated below Verstappen, Leclerc and Hamilton?
Russell has the smallest deficit, but his recent results have moved in the wrong direction.
After retiring in Malaysia, he crashed out of the Singapore Sprint lead. Power-unit penalties then left him starting Sunday’s Grand Prix 19th, from where he recovered to ninth. He also acknowledged that another engine-related penalty is likely before the season ends, although its timing remains undecided.
That provides a plausible sporting explanation for his lower market probability. He needs repeated major gains, yet recent weekends have brought lost points and further complications.
It would be misleading to interpret the 1% as evidence that Russell has simply become slow. He led the Sprint before crashing, and his Grand Prix was compromised by starting position. But mistakes have crept in this season alongside bad luck.
Verstappen presents a different case: a larger deficit, but consecutive Grand Prix victories. Leclerc finished second in Singapore, while Hamilton was competitive before his decision to stay out on aging tires contributed to a fall to sixth.
Those results help explain why the standings and market order might differ. They do not prove which factor caused each price.
Can Max Verstappen still win the 2026 F1 title?
Yes, mathematically. No, logically. His 119-point deficit leaves very little room.
Verstappen’s maximum final total is 371 points. Antonelli needs 32 more points to finish above that ceiling, regardless of how many races Verstappen wins.
Singapore nevertheless strengthened Red Bull’s sporting argument. Verstappen controlled the Grand Prix on a one-stop strategy and finished 7.335 seconds ahead of Leclerc. His recovery has now produced victories at two very different circuits.
The difficulty is converting that speed into enough championship ground.
Verstappen gained 13 points on Antonelli across Singapore’s Sprint and Grand Prix. With no more Sprints remaining, even six Grand Prix victories would be insufficient if Antonelli kept finishing near the front.
Red Bull can win more races and influence when the title is decided. Verstappen winning the championship himself requires Antonelli’s scoring to fall sharply.
Antonelli can clinch at the United States Grand Prix on October 25 if:
Antonelli wins.
Russell finishes ninth or lower.
Hamilton finishes fifth or lower.
An Austin victory would take Antonelli to 365 points, with 125 points available afterward.
Russell finishing ninth would leave him on 240, able to reach the same 365-point total. Antonelli would win that tie on Grand Prix victories: he would have nine, while Russell could reach no more than eight.
Hamilton finishing fifth would leave him on 239, with a maximum final total of 364. Verstappen, Leclerc and Norris would also be unable to overtake Antonelli under those circumstances.
The conditions are calculated from the current standings and race-win totals, using F1’s championship countback rules.
If those results do not align, the title remains open for Mexico City. Antonelli has a first opportunity in Austin; he does not control every part of it.
Which races remain in the 2026 F1 season?
Grand Prix
Race date
Format
United States
October 25
Conventional weekend
Mexico City
November 1
Conventional weekend
São Paulo
November 8
Conventional weekend
Las Vegas
November 21
Conventional weekend
Qatar
November 29
Conventional weekend
Abu Dhabi
December 6
Conventional weekend
All six are conventional Grand Prix weekends.
What could change F1 championship odds?
A scoreless Antonelli weekend would create the largest immediate opening. His rivals need results that remove substantial chunks of the lead.
Mercedes’ response to Red Bull matters. Russell said after Singapore that the team needs to get on top of its recent updates, acknowledging Red Bull’s strength across the latest races.
The identity of the winning driver matters too. One challenger collecting repeated victories could apply pressure. Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull sharing them would limit how much ground any individual gains.
Antonelli remains overwhelmingly favored in the featured market. Singapore made Red Bull’s resurgence more convincing, while also putting the championship leader within reach of his first title.
Important Information
Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG). Crypto.com | Derivatives North America uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.
Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.
