Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: Back-to-back test for Cleveland on Nov. 14, 2026

Mavericks at Cavaliers on Saturday, Nov. 14, sets a Dallas team on a three-game winning streak against a Cleveland team playing its second game in two nights. The Mavericks are 7-4, and Cooper Flagg is averaging 25.9 points per game, with Kyrie Irving at 22.9 in nine games since returning from a torn ACL.

The Cavaliers are 6-6 and 4-2 at home. They won 115-107 at New York on Wednesday behind a season-high 32 points from James Harden, but they have lost three of their last five games.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

When is Mavericks at Cavaliers?

• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Competition: NBA, 2026–27 regular season
• Home team: Cavaliers
• Mavericks win: 41%
• Cavaliers win: 59%

What is the Mavericks at Cavaliers prediction?

OG.com prediction markets make the Cavaliers 59% favorites and the Mavericks 41% underdogs. Market data as of November 12, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

Prices in sports prediction markets are implied probabilities, and the 18-point gap here favors a home team with the worse record. The strongest supported case for Cleveland is shot-making: Harden and Donovan Mitchell can score from several spots, and the Cavaliers have averaged 41.8 three-point attempts over their last five games.

Dallas has a clear route too. The Mavericks have out-rebounded opponents in three of their last five games, and they have the rest advantage, with Thursday's game at Minnesota the only one before this tip-off.

The game turns on what happens when Cleveland's threes miss. If Dallas collects those rebounds and runs, the Mavericks can offset Cleveland's home court.

Mavericks at Cavaliers win probabilities

• Mavericks win: 41%
• Cavaliers win: 59%

Cleveland's 59% sits on a 6-6 team with a 4-2 home record. Dallas is 7-4 and 2-2 on the road, so the Mavericks' 41% belongs to the team with the better record.

How could Mavericks at Cavaliers unfold?

Both teams have games before Saturday: Dallas plays at Minnesota on Thursday and Cleveland visits Miami on Friday, part of the daily sports prediction markets schedule. That sequence shapes how Kenny Atkinson can use his starters. A back-to-back doesn't prove tired legs, but it limits how freely the Cavaliers can lean on Mitchell, who played 36 minutes at New York on Wednesday.

Cleveland's offense runs through volume from deep. The Cavaliers attempted 209 threes across their last five games and made 77, or 36.8%. Misses from that distance come off the rim farther, so the team with the stronger rebounding group can turn them into early offense.

That is where Dallas has an edge. The Mavericks out-rebounded the Jazz 55-40, the Nets 46-30 and the Pacers 43-27, and they scored 26 fast-break points against Brooklyn. Cleveland was out-rebounded 49-32 at Charlotte on Monday, its largest rebounding deficit of its last five games.

Cleveland's answer starts in the paint with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Cleveland's opponents have averaged 37.2 paint points over the last five games, compared with 47.6 for Dallas in its own last five. Dallas lost the paint 62-40 at San Antonio, so the Mavericks' interior edge depends on Flagg and Irving attacking before the Cavaliers get set.

What is the latest team news?

Dallas has the longer injury list, and its core is intact. Neither team has posted a report for Saturday's game.

What is the latest on the Mavericks?

Dereck Lively II is out as he recovers from foot surgery, and reports describe him as week-to-week. Tarik Biberovic (heel bursitis) and Sergio de Larrea (knee sprain) are also out on the Mavericks' report for Thursday's game. Morez Johnson Jr. is probable with a left shin/tibia contusion, and Caleb Martin is available with a thumb splint.

Irving has not been on the injury report this week. He played a season-high 38 minutes against the Pacers on the second night of a back-to-back, though Dallas held him out of the second night of its first one. Saturday is not a back-to-back for the Mavericks. Without Lively, Daniel Gafford is expected to keep starting, according to reports, with Johnson, Santi Aldama and Moussa Cisse sharing time at center.

What is the latest on the Cavaliers?

Sam Merrill is out with an elbow injury and has missed three straight games. Nae'Qwan Tomlin is out with a low back stress reaction. Cleveland has not yet posted a report for Friday's game at Miami.

Allen played 32 minutes against the Knicks with 11 points and 14 rebounds after missing time with a knee contusion earlier this month. Harden's 32 points came after he entered Wednesday averaging 15.3 points and shooting 36.4% from the field. With Merrill out, Craig Porter Jr., Meleek Thomas and Tyrese Proctor have absorbed more guard minutes.

What are the projected starting lineups?

Dallas has used the same starting five in its last three games, while Cleveland's group has shifted with injuries to Allen and Merrill.

How could the Mavericks line up?

Projected starting five:

• Kyrie Irving
• Caleb Martin
• Cooper Flagg
• P.J. Washington Jr.
• Daniel Gafford

This projection assumes Irving is available; Max Christie, who started earlier this season, is an option if Dallas holds him out. Walter Clayton Jr. scored 20 points against the Kings and Naji Marshall scored 22 against the Spurs, so the bench has scoring depth behind the starters.

How could the Cavaliers line up?

Projected starting five:

• James Harden
• Donovan Mitchell
• Peyton Watson
• Evan Mobley
• Jarrett Allen

This projection assumes Allen and Watson are available; Thomas, who started against the Knicks on Nov. 7, is the alternative if either sits. Proctor, who scored 15 points in 23 minutes at New York, and Porter have absorbed guard minutes behind the starters.

What could decide Mavericks at Cavaliers?

These three questions shape the game.

Can Dallas turn missed threes into transition points?

Cleveland attempts almost 42 threes a night, so the Cavaliers generate rebounding chances for the opponent. Dallas finished 55-40 on the glass against Utah, with Johnson collecting 17 rebounds. If Johnson and Gafford control the defensive glass, Flagg can push the pace in the open floor, where he had 25 points and 12 assists against Brooklyn.

Can Flagg and Irving score against Mobley and Allen?

Flagg had 43 points, 10 rebounds and six assists against Indiana, and Irving added 35 with seven three-pointers. Mobley and Allen anchor the paint, and the Cavaliers have held opponents to 37.2 paint points a game across their last five. The question is whether Dallas's guards can create shots from the perimeter when the paint is closed.

Can Harden and Mitchell carry Cleveland's creation on the second night?

The Cavaliers have been out-assisted 134-117 over their last five games, and they trailed in assists in four of the five. Harden's 32 points at New York and Mitchell's 37 against the Knicks on Nov. 7 show how much scoring comes from those two. With Merrill out, there is less secondary creation behind them if either has an off night.

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