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Politics

Which G7 Leader Will Leave Office Next?

Jan 1, 2040

Outcome

Emmanuel Macron (President of France)

78%

Price

Contracts

Total

No asks

Emmanuel Macron (President of France) Yes

No bids

Friedrich Merz (Chancellor of Germany)

62%

Price

Contracts

Total

No asks

Friedrich Merz (Chancellor of Germany) Yes

No bids

Donald Trump (President of the United States)

18%

Price

Contracts

Total

No asks

Donald Trump (President of the United States) Yes

No bids

Andy Burnham (Prime Minister of the United Kingdom)

15%

Price

Contracts

Total

No asks

Andy Burnham (Prime Minister of the United Kingdom) Yes

No bids

1

Opens

Sep 13, 2026

2

Closes

Jan 1, 2040

3

Payment issued

1 hour after results are determined

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Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG Prediction Markets (OG.com) and uses OG.com technology. Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.

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Legal

This market resolves to "Yes" for the G7 leader who first leaves their currently held office. All other outcomes resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a leader is considered to have "left office" on the date they formally vacate the position. A public announcement of intent to resign or not seek re-election, or a loss in an election, does not constitute leaving office. The leader must have formally departed the role. If a leader listed as an outcome dies while in office, the market will be settled as Event Cancelled. In the event of cancellation, contracts are settled at the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) prior to cancellation. Settlement is based on the official result as reported by a consensus of sources. The official resolution sources are the agencies listed in Rule 14.67(c) in the CDNA Rulebook, which can be found here at https://www.nadex.com/rules/. The notice of submission pursuant to CFTC regulation 40.2(a) for Rule 14.67 can be found at https://assets.ctfassets.net/8c2uto3zas3h/5FYmSvzQOPoVlVO4bnGtIf/184180f54f954f7e4a2a832778b10c39/PUBLIC_CDNA_Statistic_Certification_of_Event_Contract.pdf Liquidity may be low while the event is live. Trading is temporarily paused during scheduled maintenance periods.

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