Will The Odyssey win at the 2027 Oscars?
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is often cited in early Best Picture conversations ahead of the 99th Academy Awards. Awards-season commentators compared the film to Oppenheimer, which swept through guild season and ceremony night in 2024.
Culture
By Ekaterina Drozdovica
Those comparisons carry some weight, but the race is far from settled. The Academy does not announce nominations until January 2027, guild voting hasn't begun, and upcoming 2026 releases could reshape the field between now and the ceremony.
This article breaks down The Odyssey's category-by-category outlook, examines the films positioned to challenge it, and walks through the historical patterns that could shape the outcome – so you can form your own view of where the race stands.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why is The Odyssey the 2027 Best Picture frontrunner?
Awards Daily positioned The Odyssey as an early Best Picture frontrunner. Its July 10 forecast listed the film in at least eight Oscar categories, while a July 20 update expanded that to 14 categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, acting, screenplay and major craft races.
In The Guardian review, IndieWire’s Anne Thompson called it “the best picture contender to beat” and suggested Matt Damon could win Best Actor. Early praise focused on the film’s ambitious scale, production design, action sequences and large-format IMAX cinematography.
Variety also saw The Odyssey as a strong contender, pointing to Christopher Nolan’s reputation, the iconic source material, its ambitious theatrical scale and high-profile cast.
The Odyssey on Oscars 2027 prediction markets
On OG.com, traders currently see The Odyssey as the clear frontrunner for Best Picture, with the market pricing its chance at 55%.
Market data as of 25 August. For up-to-date probabilities, see OG.com platform.
The rest of the field trails some way behind. Dune: Part Three, due for release in December 2026, is priced at 16%, followed by The Black Ball at 12% and Wild Horse Nine, due in September 2026, at 11%.
Christopher Nolan's Best Director case
Nolan had already won Best Director at the 96th Academy Awards for Oppenheimer.
Awards Daily has positioned Nolan as a Best Director contender for The Odyssey. The reasoning follows the same logic as the Best Picture case – a filmmaker working at scale with material that connects across both popular and critical audiences.
What are The Odyssey's award acting categories?
The Odyssey features a cast that was highlighted across multiple acting categories.
- Matt Damon is positioned as a Best Actor contender. His role represents one of the film's most visible awards-season profiles.
- Anne Hathaway has been cited as a potential supporting-category contender.
- Elliot Page is also part of supporting-category conversation.
These are early awards-season predictions, not confirmed category placements. Studios usually decide whether actors will compete in lead or supporting categories closer to the submission deadline.
The Academy has not announced nominations yet, and the acting races could change significantly as more films premiere at festivals and guild voting begins.
What are The Odyssey’s craft and technical categories?
Craft and technical categories are areas in which large-scale productions can build Oscar strength.
Awards Daily forecaster Scott Kernen projected The Odyssey to compete in several below-the-line categories, including casting, cinematography, editing, production design, costume design, makeup and hairstyling, visual effects, sound and original score. He ranked the film first in cinematography, production design, costume design and score/
Kernen's individual forecast also includes a potential Best Casting nomination, introduced at the 98th Academy Awards in 2026.
Films of The Odyssey's scale – period epics with ambitious production design and visual effects – have historically performed well in craft categories. Whether that translates to wins depends on the specific competition in each field.
Key competitors for 2027 Academy Awards
On OG.com, traders predict several 2026 releases as potential Best Picture competitors. These include:
- Dune: Part Three – Denis Villeneuve’s third Dune film continues the epic science-fiction saga. Dune: Part Two also earned a Best Picture nomination.
- La Bola Negra – A Spanish-language musical drama from director Los Javis (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi), inspired by the unfinished work of Federico García Lorca.
- Wild Horse Nine – Martin McDonagh’s upcoming film brings together a high-profile ensemble including Sam Rockwell, John Malkovich and Parker Posey.
- Digger: Greek drama about a reclusive farmer. The film explores family conflict, environmental destruction and the struggle to protect a way of life.
- Project Hail Mary – A science-fiction adventure based on Andy Weir’s bestselling novel, starring Ryan Gosling as a scientist who wakes up alone on a spacecraft and must piece together his mission to save Earth.
Late-year releases can significantly change the Oscar race. For example, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, which follows Brad Pitt’s character from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, is released in November 2026. The film could be a strong contender with David Fincher’s direction, and Quentin Tarantino’s screenplay.
Films premiering at Venice, Telluride and Toronto often gain momentum as awards coverage increases and guild voters begin forming their preferences.
How did The Odyssey perform at the box office?
The film’s worldwide opening weekend had already been confirmed by Universal at $264.1 million, and independent trade and financial reporting recorded the film above $300 million worldwide and eventually above $1 billion. This places The Odyssey among the higher-grossing films in this year’s awards race.
Ticket sales alone don’t determine Oscar outcomes, but they can shape an awards campaign. Strong box-office returns typically mean wider audience familiarity. When Academy voters have seen a film – or know that the general public has – it can influence how they weigh it against smaller releases.
Historical patterns and the preferential ballot
The Best Picture race isn’t simply about which film gets the most first-place votes. The Academy uses a preferential ballot, meaning voters rank all the nominees in order of preference.
If no film wins a majority of first-place votes, the film with the fewest is eliminated. Those ballots then move to each voter’s next choice. The process continues until one film crosses the 50% mark.
That system can reward broad appeal. A film that consistently lands second or third on ballots can beat a more polarizing contender with a smaller but highly passionate group of supporters.
For The Odyssey, that could matter if it connects across different Academy branches, from actors and directors to editors and cinematographers. It doesn’t necessarily need to be everyone’s number-one pick – ranking highly across a wide group of voters can be enough to keep it in the race.
But preferential voting can also make the outcome harder to predict. A distinctive competitor with strong support may pick up enough second-choice votes as other films are eliminated, potentially changing the shape of the race late in the count.
99th Academy Awards timeline: key dates
The countdown to the 99th Oscars is already taking shape. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has confirmed two dates: nominations will be announced on January 21, 2027, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
Nominations announcement | January 21, 2027 |
Ceremony | March 14, 2027 |
Other dates, including shortlist announcements, voting windows and the ceremony start time, have appeared in Academy-linked calendars but may still change.
The awards-season calendar typically starts gathering pace in late fall, when studios submit films for consideration. Shortlists for select categories usually follow in December, with nomination voting in January and final voting taking place in the weeks leading up to the ceremony.
That stretch also brings another important signal: the guild awards. Results from the Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Producers Guild and others are closely watched between January and early March for clues about where Academy support may be building.
What could derail The Odyssey's Oscar run?
Early frontrunner status is a strong start, but it’s no guarantee. There’s still plenty of time for the race to change before the ceremony.
A competitor breaks through at the fall festivals. Films premiering at Venice, Telluride, or Toronto in September can quickly build momentum, reshaping the Oscars conversation.
The guild awards split the field. The Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild awards are important signals to watch. If they go to different films rather than lining up behind The Odyssey, it could point to a more open race.
Voter fatigue comes into play. Academy voters may also consider whether they want to recognize the same filmmaker in consecutive years. There’s no formal rule against it, but voter sentiment can be difficult to predict – and could become another factor in a close race.
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FAQs about The Odyssey's 2027 Oscar chances
What are The Odyssey's chances of winning Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars?
The Odyssey is the most frequently cited Best Picture frontrunner in early awards-season forecasting, according to Awards Daily and other forecasting outlets. The Academy has not announced nominations, and the competitive field could shift through fall festivals and guild season.
How many Oscar nominations could The Odyssey receive?
Awards Daily has estimated the film could receive 14 nominations. This is one outlet's forecast, not an official count, and the actual number will depend on the full nominee slate announced in January 2027.
Is Christopher Nolan favored to win Best Director again?
Awards Daily has positioned Nolan as a Best Director contender. He has already won Best Director at the 96th Academy Awards for Oppenheimer in 2024.
What films are The Odyssey's biggest rivals for Best Picture?
Awards Daily has identified several potential competitors, including Project Hail Mary, Dune: Part Three, La Bola Negra, Wild Horse Nine, Obsession, and The Adventures of Cliff Booth. Additional contenders may emerge from fall festival premieres.
When are the 2027 Oscar nominations announced?
The Academy announced January 21, 2027, as the nominations announcement date, with the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
Could Matt Damon win Best Actor for The Odyssey?
Yes, but it’s not guaranteed. Awards Daily and many other outlets have named Damon as a Best Actor contender for his role in The Odyssey. The Best Actor field typically takes shape after fall festivals and guild nominations.
How does The Odyssey's box-office performance affect its Oscar campaign?
The film’s worldwide opening weekend had already been confirmed by Universal at $264.1 million, and independent trade and financial reporting recorded the film above $300 million worldwide and eventually above $1 billion. This places The Odyssey among the higher-grossing films in this year’s awards race.
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