Turkey take on Paraguay, with both sides desperately needing to win, in one of the tighter group phase ties.
Soccer
By Sam Bloomquist
Turkey and Paraguay both find themselves in a similar position heading into this matchup. Neither was able to get a positive result in their first matchups, with Turkey falling to Australia 2-0 and Paraguay losing to the USA 4-1.
Now, they sit tied at the bottom of Group D, hoping that a win will get them back on track and qualify for the next stage of the tournament.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Turkey vs Paraguay snapshot
Match: Turkey vs Paraguay
Date: June 19, 2026, 11:00 PM EDT
Location: San Francisco, CA
Group context: Turkey, Paraguay, the USA, and Australia make up Group D.
Head-to-head: These two countries have only faced off once before in international play, which was a draw in 1995.
What is the prediction for Turkey vs Paraguay?
This is the third time Turkey has qualified for the world soccer championship, doing so in 1954 and 2002 as well. They finished in 3rd place in 2002, beating South Korea in the match for third, 3-2. This is the ninth time Paraguay has qualified for the tournament, with their best performance coming in 2010 when they made the quarterfinals.
This is the second match in a row that Turkey is favored to win, despite falling to Australia in their first matchup. Turkey was more evenly matched to Australia in the pre-tournament power rankings, with Paraguay sitting maybe a dozen spots below them in what may be considered a down year for their team.
Although Turkey has made it further in the tournament than Paraguay ever has, Paraguay has had far more appearances than Turkey historically, qualifying for all four tournaments from 1998 to 2010. Neither of the current squads has qualified for the tournament until now, so it remains to be seen if either team will benefit from their previous successes.
This matchup hinges heavily on both of these teams’ hopes of moving on to the next stage of competition. Getting three or four points in the group stage vastly improves your chances of moving on, as both first and second teams of the group move on, as well as eight third-place teams.
Market data as of 17 June, 2026. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
How to read the Turkey vs Paraguay prediction market
In simple terms, a prediction market lets participants trade contracts on the outcome of future events. The price of an event contract can be read as a market-implied probability of the outcome occurring.
For example, a contract trading at 60¢ can be read as roughly a 60% market-implied chance, before fees and market rules. A market-implied probability derived from contract prices may not account for fees, spreads, or other market structure factors.
At the time of writing, the market favours Turkey to win the match, with the 49% implied probability, and 25% for Paraguay. Yet the event contract prices can move quickly as traders learn new information.
This framing can help when interpreting Turkey vs Paraguay odds, as it shows what the market is pricing in at any given moment.
Traders should review the rules, fees, and settlement details of any event contract before opening a position. Trading event contracts involves risk; every contract is settled at either $0 or $1, depending on whether the defined outcome occurs.
There is no partial settlement. Traders can lose their entire cost to enter any transaction, including fees.
Several factors can shift how traders price the Turkey vs Paraguay odds before and during the match:
Fitness and injury updates: Player fitness updates before a major tournament match can influence how traders price the outcome.
Weather and venue conditions. Heat, humidity, or a wet pitch can favor one playing style over another, and those conditions may show up in price movements.
Lineup announcements. Starting XI selections reveal tactical intent – a rotated squad or a surprise formation can shift how traders assess each side's chances.
How to get started with prediction markets on OG
You can trade your view via Turkey vs Paraguay event contracts. Here is how it works:
Create an account:Open an account and complete signup, including identity verification.
Browse markets: Explore markets across economics, culture, politics, sports, and other real-world events.
Review and trade: Compare the market price with your own view. Check the rules, fees, and settlement details before opening a position.
Monitor your position: After trading, your contract appears in your open positions, where you can track price movement as new information comes in.
Turkey is favored, although our markets give them less than a 50% chance to get the win.
What time is Turkey vs Paraguay?
The Turkey vs Paraguay Group D match is scheduled for Friday, June 19, 2026, at 11:00 PM EDT in San Francisco, CA. Check the OG app or official tournament sources for the confirmed Turkey vs Paraguay time in your time zone.
Where is Turkey vs Paraguay being played?
The match is scheduled at the stadium in San Francisco, CA. The venue has a seating capacity of approximately 68,500.
What group are Turkey and Paraguay in?
Turkey and Paraguay are in Group D. They are in a group with the USA and Australia.
How do prediction markets price Turkey vs Paraguay?
The price of an event contract can be read as a market-implied probability. For example, a contract trading at 60¢ suggests roughly a 60% market-implied chance, before fees and market rules. A market-implied probability derived from contract prices may not account for fees, spreads, or other market structure factors.
What could move the Turkey vs Paraguay market before kickoff?
Confirmed lineups, player fitness updates, and early in-match events like goals or red cards can all cause prediction market prices to move. Traders should review the rules, fees, and settlement details of any event contract before opening a position.
Important Information: Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (Nadex), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG Prediction Markets (OG). Crypto.com | Derivatives North America uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG technology.
Trading on OG involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading, you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.
