Texas Senate election winner 2026 predictions: what polls, forecasts, and markets say
Prediction markets favor a Democratic win, which would be the party’s first Texas Senate victory since 1988.
Politics
By Barbara Pazur
Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Now James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in recent polls ahead of the November election.
Donald Trump carried Texas by 13.7 points in 2024, but the latest RealClearPolling average has Talarico at 48.1% and Paxton at 45.3%, a 2.8-point lead for the Democrat. However, some election forecasts still classify the race as a toss-up, leaving plenty of uncertainty ahead of November 3.
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What is the latest Texas Senate election winner prediction?
Market data as of 13 October. For the latest predictions, check OG.com.
Who is running in the 2026 Texas Senate race?
Three candidates are on the November 3 ballot.
Candidate
Party
James Talarico
Democratic
Ken Paxton
Republican
Ted Brown
Libertarian
James Talarico
Texas state representative James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in March, defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. His campaign has focused on reaching voters beyond the usual Democratic base, particularly independents and Republicans dissatisfied with Paxton.
Polling shows Talarico drawing support from younger voters, moderates and college graduates. His favorable ratings are also higher than Paxton's in the latest Fox News survey.
Ken Paxton
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated four-term Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican runoff after receiving Trump's endorsement.
Paxton has strong support among conservative and rural voters but faces resistance outside that base. A September Fox News poll found 58% of likely voters viewed him unfavorably, compared with 44% for Talarico.
Ted Brown
Libertarian Ted Brown is the third candidate on the ballot. Most polls focus on Talarico and Paxton, but Brown could affect the final margin if the major-party candidates remain close.
What do the latest Talarico vs. Paxton polls show?
Recent surveys show Talarico ahead by varying margins, although some have found the race tied.
Poll
Talarico
Paxton
Margin
RCP average
48.1%
45.3%
Talarico +2.8
YouGov
50%
44%
Talarico +6
NYT/Siena
51%
45%
Talarico +6
Fox News
51%
49%
Talarico +2
Rasmussen
46%
45%
Talarico +1
UMass Lowell
45%
45%
Tie
Based on publicly available information as of October 9, 2026. Source: RealClearPolling.
The 2026 Texas Senate race odds tell a different story from polling margins. Polls measure current voter support, while political prediction market prices reflect traders' expectations for the final result. A 2.8-point polling lead doesn't translate directly into a 52.8% chance of winning.
Texas Senate race demographic breakdown: how voter groups and geography shape the race
The candidates draw much of their support from different voter groups. Fox's September survey found Talarico ahead among Black and Hispanic voters, moderates and younger Texans. Paxton performed better among White evangelicals, rural voters and older Texans.
Voter group
Stronger candidate
Support among likely voters
Black voters
Talarico
79%
Hispanic voters
Talarico
64%
Moderates
Talarico
65%
Voters under 35
Talarico
62%
White evangelical Christians
Paxton
74%
White men without college degrees
Paxton
65%
Rural voters
Paxton
57%
Voters 65+
Paxton
55%
Based on publicly available information as of October 9, 2026. Source: Fox News Poll.
Paxton's strength in rural areas contrasts with Talarico's stronger showing in urban and suburban populations. Turnout in major metropolitan areas such as Houston and Dallas–Fort Worth could have a substantial effect on the statewide result.
Why independents and suburban voters may decide the outcome
Texas Republicans usually enter statewide elections with an advantage, so the support of independents and less partisan voters matters in a close race.
A September Marist poll found Talarico winning 55% of independents. Fox also found that 20% of voters who supported Cornyn in the Republican primary were backing Talarico.
That crossover support is particularly relevant in the suburbs, where Republican voters don't necessarily share the same views of Paxton.
A return of those voters to the Republican nominee could narrow the gap considerably. If the divisions seen in recent polls persist, Paxton could struggle to match the statewide Republican margins of previous elections.
Fundraising gap between Talarico and Paxton
Talarico has raised considerably more money through his own campaign. Federal Election Commission records through June 30 show about $68.6 million in receipts for Talarico, compared with roughly $9.25 million across Paxton's authorized committees.
Paxton reported raising more than $18 million in the third quarter, including money raised through joint fundraising committees. Republican outside groups have also stepped in, spending more than $175 million on advertising supporting his campaign by early October.
The spending has given both sides a major advertising presence across Texas. Talarico's campaign has spent more directly, while Paxton has relied heavily on outside Republican support.
How long since a Democrat won statewide in Texas?
Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. The party's last statewide election victory came in 1994. Could this year be different and can Democrats win the Texas Senate in 2026?
The polls have narrowed enough to make that question worth asking, but Paxton still has Texas' longstanding Republican voting history on his side. Republicans have maintained that control through changing political conditions. Ted Cruz won his 2024 Senate reelection by 8.5 points, while John Cornyn won by 9.6 points in 2020.
The current Talarico vs. Paxton polls are considerably closer than those results. Still, a competitive Senate race doesn't necessarily mean Texas has become a swing state. Candidate appeal, voter turnout and the national political environment can all produce a different result from one election to the next.
Could Texas decide Senate control?
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, while Democrats and the two independents who caucus with them hold 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
Texas gives Democrats a potential pickup in a state that initially appeared safely Republican. Cook now rates seven Senate contests as Toss Ups, including Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Maine.
In August, the Nate Silver Texas Senate forecast identified Texas as the most likely tipping-point state, with a 13% chance of determining Senate control in the model's simulations. In other words, no other state was more likely to decide which party controlled the chamber in the model's simulations.
The race is therefore important beyond Texas. A Democratic victory could contribute to the party's path to a Senate majority, while a Republican hold would protect a seat the GOP has controlled for decades.
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FAQs about the 2026 Texas Senate election predictions
Who is favored to win the 2026 Texas Senate election?
Recent polls show Talarico ahead, although Cook Political Report still rates the race a Toss Up.
What do the latest polls say about Talarico vs. Paxton?
RealClearPolling's two-candidate average has Talarico leading Paxton by 2.8 points.
Is the 2026 Texas Senate race a toss-up?
Cook Political Report currently rates the race a Toss Up.
How do prediction market prices compare to polling averages for the Texas Senate race?
OG.com shows a 64% Democratic market price, while polling measures Talarico's narrower lead in voter support.
What is the Cook Political Report's current rating for the Texas Senate race?
The Cook Political Report Texas Senate rating is Toss Up, following a change from Lean Republican in August.
How does Nate Silver's FLIPR model rate the Texas Senate race?
FLIPR gave Talarico a 60.7% win probability in late August and identified Texas as a key Senate tipping-point state.
Can Texas flip to a Democratic senator in 2026?
Recent polling shows a competitive race, although Democrats haven't won a Texas Senate election since 1988.
Which demographic groups favor Talarico, and which favor Paxton?
Talarico draws stronger support from younger, Black and Hispanic voters, while Paxton performs better among rural, older and White evangelical voters.
Why is independent voter support important in the Texas Senate race?
Independents can affect a close statewide result, and Marist found 55% supporting Talarico in September.
When is the 2026 Texas Senate election?
Election Day is November 3, 2026, with early voting from October 19 through October 30.
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