Predicting the Pro Basketball Playoffs

After a long 82-game regular season, we’ve finally reached the postseason for Professional Basketball. Ten teams in each conference will square off for a chance to represent their conference in the finals, where we will crown another champion to live on in the history books. There are a lot of the same cast and characters as you’ve seen in years past, but the situation each team is facing heading into these playoffs will determine how big a chance they have at raising the trophy. Will Oklahoma City become the first repeat champion since Golden State in 2017 and 2018? Can a play-in team go on a finals run as Miami did in 2023? Will Los Angeles C, Charlotte, Minnesota, Orlando or Phoenix win their first title in franchise history?

The Format of the Pro Basketball Playoffs

The Professional Basketball playoff format shifted when they were in the bubble for the 2020 postseason to make up for the fact that the end of the regular season was cancelled for COVID-19 earlier that year.  They installed a play-in tournament between the seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth seeds to see who would represent the seventh and eighth seeds in the field. In 2021, the league permanently established the play-in tournament as a part of the postseason. The seventh seed plays the eighth seed, with the winner officially becoming the seventh seed for the remainder of the playoffs. The ninth seed and the tenth seed also face off. The winner of that matchup then plays the loser of the other game for the opportunity to be the eighth seed for the remainder of the playoffs.

That takes us to the main postseason tournament bracket. In each conference, the eighth seed plays the first seed, the seventh plays the second, the sixth plays the third, and the fifth plays the fourth. The bracket does not reseed after these matchups, meaning that the winner of the fourth vs. fifth will play the winner of the first vs. the eighth, no matter which team moves on. Each series is a best-of-7 game series, where the first team to four wins moves on. The winner of each conference will face off in the finals for the championship. 

Predicting the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Playoffs

The top seed in the Eastern Conference is Detroit, the first time the team has achieved the top record in their conference since the 2006-2007 season. They are one of three teams this season to win 60+ games, and the only one in the Eastern Conference. They have the second-best defensive rating in the league and have built a contender around the 2021 first overall pick, Cade Cunningham. However, Cunningham sat out the majority of the end of the season with a punctured lung, causing him to miss 11 games down the stretch. He returned to play the last four weeks of the season and is now healthy for the playoff push. The minutes he gave up in that time could have given some of the bench players more time to develop in his absence, as Detroit only lost three of the 11 games they played without Cunningham. Our predictive markets give Detroit a 25% chance to win the Eastern Conference.

The team with the best odds to win the Eastern Conference is Boston. They won the championship in the 2024 playoffs by beating Dallas 4-1. That team, similar to this year’s team, was led by the superstar duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Since then, however, they have gone through a major roster restructure, shipping away key title contributors like Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to make way for players like Sam Hauser and Baylor Scheierman. On top of that, in last year’s Eastern Conference semi-finals, Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles in game four vs. New York and missed the rest of the playoffs and a majority of this season. He returned to the lineup on March 6th this year, and Boston has gone 15-5 since. They’re playing some of their best basketball of the season, which is why our predictive markets give them a 39% chance to win the Eastern Conference and a 15% chance to win the championship, the best odds of any team in the East. 

New York and Atlanta will face off in the first round of the playoffs. This is a matchup we’ve seen before, most recently in 2021 when the Hawks knocked off New York and Philadelphia en route to an Eastern Conference Finals appearance against Milwaukee. This time, New York is the 3-seed and a larger favorite in the series. Our prediction markets give them the fourth-best odds to come out of the East at 18%. The other first-round matchup is between the 4th-seeded Cleveland and the 5th-seeded Toronto. This is the first time Toronto has made the playoffs since 2022, when they lost in the first round to Philadelphia. Cleveland has been a regular fixture in the playoffs since 2023, but has failed to make it past the semifinals for three straight seasons now. However, our prediction markets give Cleveland the third-highest odds to win the Eastern Conference at 22%, due in large part to trading for 11-time All-Star James Harden at the deadline this season. 

The play-in teams in the Eastern Conference are battling for the opportunity to face the 1-seed Detroit and the 2-seed Boston. The 7-seed, Philadelphia, will face the 8-seed, Orlando, in the first game, with the winner moving on to play Boston in a best-of-seven series. The loser will face the winner between the 9-seed Charlotte and the 10-seed Miami, where the winner of that game will face Detroit. Our prediction markets give Orlando a 79% chance to make the playoff field and Philadelphia a 76% chance. 

Predicting the Pro Basketball Western Conference Playoffs

The top overall seed in the playoff field is Oklahoma City for the third year in a row. They are also the reigning champions. After winning the championship last season, they returned their entire roster except for the last person on their bench. They have maintained their stretch of greatness from last season by having the top defense in the league again this season and the seventh-highest rated offense. Last year, defeated Indiana in the finals 4-3, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added to his trophy case with awards given to the best player in the regular season, and the best play in the championship along the way. He’s the overwhelming favorite for the regular-season award again this season, and our prediction markets give Oklahoma City the best odds to win their second straight championship at a whopping 46%.

The second-highest odds in the league to win a championship are also in the Western Conference with San Antonio. Both Oklahoma City and San Antonio won 60+ games this season. This is the first season we’ll see 2023 first overall pick Victor Wembanyama in the playoffs. He has helped propel San Antonio to the top of the standings with the third-best offensive and defensive ratings in the league this season. That also gives them the third best net-rating behind only Oklahoma City and Detroit. They’ve won the fourth most championships in Professional Basketball history with five, but they haven’t won a title since 2014. Our prediction odds give San Antonio an 18% chance to win their sixth championship in franchise history this season. 

Nikola Jokic and Denver are trying to get back into the winner’s circle for the first time since 2023, when they beat Miami to win their first championship in franchise history. But they’ll have their hands full in the first round with the 6-seed Anthony Edwards and Minnesota. They’ve faced off in the playoffs twice since 2023, with each team winning a series. The last time they played, Minnesota staged a 20-point second-half comeback in game seven to win the series and moved on to face Dallas in the Western Conference Finals. Our prediction markets give Denver a 10% chance to win a title this season and Minnesota a 3% chance. The other matchup is between the 4-seed Los Angeles L and the 5-seed Houston. This matchup features four-time champion LeBron James and two-time champion Kevin Durant, both hoping to get one more title before they retire. James will have a tough time with a short-handed team, as Luka Doncic and Austin Reeves are both out for this series after sustaining injuries at the end of the season. Both teams have just a 3% chance to win the championship this season. 

The play-in teams in the Western Conference are facing off for the chance to play one of two 60+ win teams in Oklahoma City and San Antonio. The 7-seed Phoenix will play the 8-seed Portland, where the winner will play San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs. The loser of that matchup will play the winner of the 9-seed Los Angeles C and 10-seed Golden State. The winner of the second game will play Oklahoma City as the 8-seed in the Western Conference playoff field. Our prediction markets give Phoenix an 89% chance to make the playoffs and Portland a 76% chance.

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Economic and market forecasts are subject to change without notice. Figures and projections in this article are based on available data as of October 2025, with partial extrapolation during the government shutdown. Actual Bureau of Labor Statistics releases may differ materially once regular publication resumes.