NFL tiebreaker rules: divisions, wild cards and playoff seeding

The NFL is a long season – 18 weeks to be exact. But 18 weeks isn’t always enough to figure out who should make the playoffs and who shouldn’t. 

So what does the NFL do if two teams are tied at the end of the regular season when there’s only one spot left? We’ll go through all of the tiebreaker rules so you know what your team needs to do to clinch the playoffs. These rules can greatly swing football probabilities.

How do NFL tiebreakers work?

It seems so simple – the teams with the best records make the playoffs. But with divisions and conference standings, things can get a little bit more complicated than that. The NFL weighs each win differently. 

A divisional game is worth more than a conference game, and a conference game is worth more than a non-conference game. It all adds up to one massive equation to break any conference or divisional ties at the end of the season.

NFL division tiebreaker rules

The winner of each division makes the playoffs no matter what. Each conference has four divisions, and each division winner is guaranteed a home game in the first playoff game they play. 

Winning your divisional games is very important, that’s why when their results go final you’ll see larger changes in prediction markets. But if two teams in the division are tied, the league will go through each channel until one team has the upper hand. Starting with:

1. Head-to-head record.
2. Division record.
3. Record in common games.
4. Conference record.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Combined conference ranking in points scored and points allowed.
8. Combined league ranking in points scored and points allowed.
9. Net points in common games.
10. Net points in all games.
11. Net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss.

Let’s say division rivals Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are both 11-6, they split their season series 1-1 with each other and both have a 4-2 divisional record. 

That would fall into the common games clause and Pittsburgh would make it in because both teams played the Giants, Commanders, Eagles and Cowboys, and the Steelers went 3-1 against those teams and the Ravens went 2-2. 

What are the NFL wild-card tiebreakers?

What do common games, strength of victory and strength of schedule mean?

Common games

These games are when the two teams in the tiebreaker scenario share common opponents. Their performances in those games, if vastly different, can serve as a tiebreaker.

Strength of victory

In other words, this is a team’s net rating. Take the number of points scored this season and subtract the number of points they’ve allowed this season. 

Strength of schedule

The combined record of the opponents a team has faced this season. This is a measuring stick for how difficult a team’s schedule has been this season.

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FAQs about NFL tiebreaker rules

How does seeding work in NFL playoffs?

The top four seeds go to the winners of each division. The top overall seed in the conference gets a bye. The next best three teams get the remaining wildcard spots. 

What is the strength of victory in NFL tiebreakers?

Strength of victory refers to a team’s net rating. How well did they beat the teams on their schedule? You can find it by subtracting their points against from the points scored.

How do NFL playoff tiebreakers work?

The NFL playoff seeding rules say that if two teams are tied going into the NFL playoffs, they go through a list of tiebreakers until one team has the upperhand and gets the bid.

What are NFL playoff tiebreaker rules?

Head-to-head record, division record, record in common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, combined conference ranking in points scored and points allowed, combined league ranking in points scored and points allowed, net points in common games, net points in all games, net touchdowns in all games and a coin flip.

How does an NFL three-way tiebreaker work?

A three way tiebreaker will weigh all the teams evenly against each other, cancelling out any one-on-one tiebreakers two teams may have against each other. 

What are common games in an NFL tiebreaker?

If two teams have played common opponents on their schedules, they will use the results from those games to decide the tiebreaker.

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