Newcastle United vs Hull City prediction, odds and lineups

Those questions begin in midfield. Newcastle lost Nico González to concussion early in their 4-1 defeat at Leeds, then struggled to match the home side's intensity with Lewis Miley and Sean Steur operating as an inexperienced pair against Leeds' midfield 3.

The defeat laid bare defensive deficiencies which were exposed by Bournemouth in the first half of their previous game.

Hull offer another physical and tactical test. Sergej Jakirović's side have taken eight points from their first four Premier League games, kept three clean sheets and recovered from an early deficit to draw 2-2 with Chelsea.

Newcastle have the greater individual quality, but the visitors have already shown that they can defend compactly, compete for second balls and attack through the wide areas.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Newcastle United vs Hull City match snapshot

• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Kickoff: 3:00 PM BST / 10:00 AM ET
• Competition: Premier League, Matchweek 5
• Newcastle United win: 60%
• Draw: 23%
• Hull City win: 19%

Newcastle United vs Hull City prediction

Prediction markets for Newcastle vs Hull price Newcastle United at 60%, with the draw at 23% and a Hull City win at 19%.

Market data as of September 14, 2026. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.

The case for Newcastle's favoritism starts with home advantage and a squad containing more proven attacking quality. Yoane Wissa gives them a strong central reference point, Harvey Barnes can threaten from the left and Matias Fernandez-Pardo offers creativity between the lines.

A response after Monday's performance is possible. It is not something that can simply be assumed.

Leeds exposed problems that Hull are equipped to test. They played through and around Newcastle's press, dominated physical contests and caused damage from wide deliveries and set plays.

Newcastle were three goals down by halftime and rarely looked secure once González left the game.

Hull's unbeaten start gives their 19% more substance than a generic underdog price.

They beat Manchester United 2-0 and Coventry 1-0, held Aston Villa goalless and then responded well after conceding early against Chelsea.

Mohamed Belloumi scored twice in that draw, while Ryan Giles and Lewie Coyle supplied width outside a compact back three.

There are vulnerabilities on the Hull side too. Nobel Mendy's concussion is likely to force a change in a defense that had been settled, and Newcastle have several forwards capable of isolating a replacement center back.

A key question for Newcastle boss Matthias Jaissle will be whether he sticks with a two-man midfield, especially in the possible absence of González.

The market still places a clear gap between the teams. Current form and Newcastle's availability problems explain why that gap requires scrutiny.

Newcastle United vs Hull City odds

• Newcastle United win — 60%
• Draw — 23%
• Hull City win — 19%

Newcastle have a substantial market advantage, although 60% stops short of mismatch territory.

The draw sitting only four points above a Hull win is also notable: the market gives real weight to the possibility that Hull's organization produces more than simple resistance.

The tension is between Newcastle's ceiling and Hull's evidence. The home side have the players to stretch a back five, but Hull have conceded only twice in four league games and have already handled different types of opponent.

Newcastle's task is to turn possession into clean chances without leaving the defensive transitions and second-ball spaces that Leeds exploited.

Newcastle United team news

González is a major doubt after leaving the Leeds game with a concussion. Steur replaced him after 17 minutes, leaving the 18-year-old alongside 20-year-old Miley.

Jacob Ramsey was on the bench but could not play because of a thigh problem, according to Jaissle, so his presence among the substitutes should not be mistaken for full availability.

Anthony Elanga also missed the defeat. Jaissle said the winger's injury “doesn't look that good,” with further assessment required after he scored in two of Newcastle's first three league games.

His pace and direct running have been important on the right, and his absence creates a real choice between Jacob Murphy's experience and Bazoumana Touré's upside.

Touré came off the bench to score at Leeds and has made the stronger case to start. Having scored against West Brom in the cup, he's now got two goals in just 79 minutes afforded to him by Jaissle.

William Osula is progressing from a foot injury and has left his protective boot, but a return against Hull remains the optimistic end of his timeline. If cleared, he would surely be involved in the game, perhaps playing in front of Yoanne Wissa.

Sven Botman appeared to have a leg problem late at Leeds and needs checking before kickoff.

At right back, Tino Livramento's return gives Jaissle an alternative, but Amar Dedić has started all four league matches and remains the demonstrated first choice.

The projected Newcastle lineup therefore provides the baseline, with changes driven by fitness and performance rather than reputation.

Hull City team news

Mendy is expected to miss out after sustaining a concussion against Chelsea. Lucas Herrington replaced him and is the most direct option on the left of Hull's back three, although Paddy McNair could enter the discussion if he proves his fitness after a foot problem.

Hidemasa Morita is also working back toward full fitness. In his absence, Matt Crooks and Regan Slater have supplied experience and discipline in central midfield.

That pairing helps Hull protect the middle before releasing Coyle and Giles into more advanced positions.

The front three has greater continuity. Elliot Stroud and Belloumi work around Oliver McBurnie, whose aerial presence gives Hull an outlet when the first phase of buildup is unavailable.

Belloumi's two goals against Chelsea strengthen his position on the right, while McBurnie's ability to occupy center backs will matter against a Newcastle defense that struggled with physical pressure on Monday.

Newcastle United lineup

Newcastle are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1

• Goalkeeper: Lukáš Horníček
• Right back: Amar Dedić
• Right center back: Malick Thiaw
• Left center back: Sven Botman
• Left back: Lewis Hall
• Right central midfield: Sean Steur
• Left central midfield: Lewis Miley
• Right wing: Bazoumana Touré
• No. 10: Matias Fernandez-Pardo
• Left wing: Harvey Barnes
• Striker: Yoane Wissa

Hull City lineup

Hull are likely to line up in a 3-4-3:

• Goalkeeper: Konstantinos Tzolakis
• Right center back: Semi Ajayi
• Center back: John Egan
• Left center back: Lucas Herrington
• Right wing-back: Lewie Coyle
• Right central midfield: Matt Crooks
• Left central midfield: Regan Slater
• Left wing-back: Ryan Giles
• Right wing: Mohamed Belloumi
• Striker: Oliver McBurnie
• Left wing: Elliot Stroud

Hull's lineup is settled, but Newcastle's is not after Monday's defeat and a shaky opening 45 minutes against Bournemouth.

Jaissle could look to reinstate control in the midfield by dropping a No. 10 and adding an extra body back. Sean Steur conceded possession in the buildup to Leeds's third and both he and Miley could come under threat from Joe Willock, Jacob Ramsey (if fit) and Aladji Bamba.

Fernandez-Pardo looked ill-equipped to play as the striker at Leeds. Joe Willock could also be used behind Wissa instead.

See more prediction markets

• Premier League games
• Premier League futures
• Soccer games
• Soccer futures
• All sports
• Live now

Newcastle United vs Hull City key matchup factors

Can Newcastle control midfield without Nico González?

This is the largest selection and tactical question. González offered experience and positional security before his early departure at Leeds. Miley and Steur are talented, but asking such a young pair to control transitions immediately after a heavy defeat creates an obvious pressure point.

Hull do not need to dominate possession to exploit it. Crooks and Slater can contest direct balls, collect second phases and release the wing-backs before Newcastle reset. Jaissle could turn to Joe Willock or the more physical Aladji Bamba, or gamble on Ramsey's fitness.

He may also choose to add an extra body in midfield to provide greater control.

Will Hull's width reproduce the problems Newcastle had at Leeds?

Leeds repeatedly found space outside and behind Newcastle's fullbacks, with Jayden Bogle scoring from a back-post header.

Hull use a different structure, but the principle is similar. Coyle and Giles advance from wing-back, while the front three narrow to occupy defenders and attack deliveries.

Newcastle's response cannot be limited to defending crosses. Their wingers must track the first forward run, and the midfield pair must protect the space from which Hull can recycle possession.

If those distances become stretched again, Hull have a clear route into the game.

Who replaces Anthony Elanga's threat on Newcastle's right?

Murphy offers familiarity and reliable width. Touré offers more unpredictability, and his late goal at Leeds was one of the few positive moments in a poor team performance.

Starting the younger winger would add one-on-one threat against Giles, who is dangerous going forward but can leave space behind him.

There is also a balance question. Fernandez-Pardo naturally wants to find pockets inside, while Barnes attacks from the opposite flank.

Newcastle need someone to hold the right side often enough to stretch Hull's back five rather than allowing the visitors to defend a narrow area.

How costly is Nobel Mendy's absence for Hull?

Hull conceded only twice across their opening four league games, and Mendy had become an important part of the back three.

Herrington handled the change against Chelsea, but a first start in this matchup would bring a different examination against Wissa's movement and Barnes cutting inside.

Jakirović can protect the replacement by keeping the block compact. The tradeoff is that dropping too deep would invite sustained pressure and reduce the space available for McBurnie to connect with the wide forwards.

Hull's defensive line has been effective because it has remained organized without becoming entirely passive.

What could move Newcastle United vs Hull City odds before kickoff?

The main Newcastle updates concern González's concussion protocol, the results of Elanga's assessment and any confirmation on Botman's late discomfort at Leeds.

Ramsey's thigh fitness could change the midfield options, while an unexpectedly quick Osula return would add a credible alternative at striker. Jaissle's choice between Dedić and Livramento, and between Murphy and Touré, will reveal how strongly he reacts to Monday's defeat.

Hull's key issue is the left side of the back three. Confirmation that Mendy is unavailable would focus attention on Herrington, McNair's fitness and any structural adjustment Jakirović considers.

Morita's possible return would add another central-midfield option, although Crooks and Slater have given the unbeaten side little reason for unnecessary disruption.

Important Information

Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG). Crypto.com | Derivatives North America uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.

Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.