Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves prediction, team news and lineups on Nov. 12, 2026

The Mavericks at Timberwolves game on Thursday, Nov. 12, pairs two teams that are winning in different ways. The Timberwolves are 8-3 and have won four in a row since Edwards had knee surgery. The Mavericks are 6-4 after home wins over the Jazz and Nets.

Minnesota is 5-2 without Edwards, who is expected to miss about two months, and it leans on LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu to create. Dallas answers with Flagg, who just posted a career-high 12 assists, and a front line that scored 64 points in the paint against Brooklyn.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

When is Mavericks at Timberwolves?

• Date: Thursday, November 12, 2026
• Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. CT
• Competition: NBA, 2026–27 regular season
• Home team: Timberwolves
• Mavericks win: 37%
• Timberwolves win: 75%

The rest of the day's schedule appears in the daily sports prediction markets listings. The Timberwolves are in the middle of a season-long eight-game homestand.

What is the Mavericks at Timberwolves prediction?

Early market prices show the Mavericks at 37% and the Timberwolves at 75%, and trading has not yet separated the two sides. Market data as of November 9, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

These implied probabilities reflect the market's expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. Prices on sports prediction markets can change as traders react to new information, and the contract terms show how overtime is handled.

The strongest case for Dallas is speed. The Mavericks scored 85 fast break points to their opponents' 68 across their last five games, an average of 17 per game. Minnesota committed 78 turnovers over its last five, 15.6 per game, and live-ball giveaways are the usual fuel for transition scoring.

The strongest case for Minnesota is shot-making and the glass. The Timberwolves hit 64 of 184 three-pointers (34.8%) over their last five games and Ball and Dosunmu supply the shot creation. That shooting gives Minnesota a way to offset Dallas's transition points.

Dallas's route works if it protects the ball and gets back on defense. Minnesota's works if its turnovers stay near its recent low of 11 and it wins the rebounding count, as it did in four of its last five games.

What are the Mavericks at Timberwolves win probabilities?

• Mavericks win: 37%
• Timberwolves win: 75%

The two prices overlap, so the market has not settled on a single read of this game. Edwards' absence is already part of Minnesota's recent results, while Dallas is still working through its own rotation, and both numbers can move before tip-off.

How could Mavericks at Timberwolves unfold?

Tempo may not belong to either side. Dallas scored 28 fast break points against Houston on Oct. 30 and 26 against Brooklyn on Sunday, and Minnesota scored 27 against Utah in its last game.

The Mavericks' last two wins show their ceiling. They shot a season-best 57.1% against Brooklyn, led 66-46 at halftime and scored 64 points in the paint. Flagg set up much of it with his 12 assists, and Gafford scored 18 points in 19 minutes.

Dallas's recent losses show the other side. At San Antonio on Nov. 4, the Mavericks made 14 of 37 threes and lost 112-111 because the Spurs won the rebounding count 61-50 and outscored them 62-40 in the paint, with Victor Wembanyama finishing with 52 points and 24 rebounds.

Free throws add a second layer. Minnesota shot 71.4% at the line over its last five games (100 of 140), against 80.1% for Dallas (113 of 141), so a close game can turn on whether the Mavericks get Ball or Gobert into foul trouble.

What is the latest team news?

Both teams are missing rotation players for different reasons, and the absences change who handles the ball and who protects the rim.

What is the latest on the Mavericks?

Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery), Sergio de Larrea (right knee sprain) and Tarik Biberovic (right heel bursitis) are listed out. Lively has not played this season, and Biberovic is still waiting for his NBA debut. Coach Dusty May said de Larrea is progressing but still wears a brace.

Irving, Santi Aldama and Max Christie came off the injury report for Sunday's win over Brooklyn. Caleb Martin has been listed as available with a right thumb sprain in every game since his Oct. 28 debut, and Aldama made his Mavericks debut against Utah on Nov. 6 with eight points and nine rebounds in 13 minutes. Irving has missed two games with left knee injury management, the second night of Dallas's only previous back-to-back on Oct. 24 and the Nov. 2 loss to Sacramento. May said the decision on the second night of a back-to-back is made after Irving wakes up.

Without Lively and de Larrea, Dallas has less size behind Daniel Gafford and less guard depth behind Irving. Walter Clayton Jr. scored 20 points in 24 minutes off the bench against Sacramento on Nov. 2.

What is the latest on the Timberwolves?

Edwards is out after right knee arthroscopy on Oct. 29, with December the target for his return according to The Athletic and ESPN. Donte DiVincenzo is also out after right Achilles surgery, and The Athletic reports he remains confident he'll return this season.

Edwards' absence moved Dosunmu into the starting lineup, with Bones Hyland and Terrence Shannon Jr. supplying scoring off the bench. Hyland scored 19 points in 16 minutes at Houston on Nov. 4 and 14 off the bench against Utah on Sunday.

What are the projected starting lineups?

Both coaches have used stable starting groups in recent games, so the projections below follow those lineups.

How could the Mavericks line up?

Projected starting five:

• Kyrie Irving
• Caleb Martin
• Cooper Flagg
• P.J. Washington
• Daniel Gafford

This projection assumes Irving is available and Martin keeps the starting spot he held against Utah and Brooklyn. Christie, who started on Oct. 30, is the likely alternative if Martin is ruled out. Clayton Jr. is a reserve guard option.

How could the Timberwolves line up?

Projected starting five:

• Ayo Dosunmu
• LaMelo Ball
• Jaden McDaniels
• Jonathan Kuminga
• Rudy Gobert

This projection assumes the same group that has started the last four games. Joan Beringer started in the frontcourt on Oct. 31 and is the supported alternative if Gobert is unavailable. Hyland and Shannon lead the bench.

What could decide Mavericks at Timberwolves?

Three matchups look most likely to settle the game, and each one connects to the tempo question above.

Can the Mavericks keep scoring in the paint?

Dallas scored 238 paint points over its last five games, 47.6 per game. Minnesota allowed 250 over the same span, 50 per game, so the Timberwolves have not been a locked door at the rim. Flagg and Irving often create the entries, and Gafford finishes them.

Can the Timberwolves control the glass?

Dallas lost the rebounding count to Houston (48-41), Sacramento (42-35) and San Antonio (61-50) in its last five, then won it by 14 against Utah and 16 against Brooklyn. Minnesota outrebounded opponents 236-221 over the same number of games, and Gobert grabbed 15 against the Jazz.

Can Ball and Dosunmu carry the offense?

Minnesota's two losses without Edwards came against Golden State and San Antonio. Ball struggled in the first and fouled out with 10 points in the second, according to the Star Tribune, then scored a season-high 34 against Milwaukee. Dosunmu led Minnesota in scoring in four of its last five games, including 26 against Utah while going 8 for 8 at the line.

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