Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics prediction, team news and lineups Nov. 15, 2026

The Mavericks at Celtics game on Sunday, Nov. 15 pairs an 8-2 Boston team that averages 15.6 made three-pointers, second most in the NBA, with a 7-4 Dallas team led by Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving. Boston is 5-0 at home.

Dallas arrives at the end of three games in four nights, with a back-to-back on Nov. 14 and 15. That schedule puts Irving's minutes, and the way the Mavericks use Flagg without him, at the center of the matchup.

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When is Mavericks at Celtics?

• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Tip-off: 6 p.m. ET
• Competition: NBA, 2026–27 regular season
• Home team: Celtics
• Mavericks win: 43%
• Celtics win: 69%

Dallas and Boston meet again on Monday, November 30 in Dallas. The full list of daily sports prediction markets covers each day's schedule.

What is the Mavericks at Celtics prediction?

Early market prices show the Mavericks at 43% and the Celtics at 69%, and trading has not yet separated the two sides. Market data as of November 10, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

These percentages reflect the market's expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. Prices in sports prediction markets work as implied probabilities and can change as traders react to new information.

Boston's case starts at the arc. In its last five games, from Nov. 1 to Nov. 8, Boston made 82 of 217 three-pointers (37.8%), and it set an NBA Cup record with 24 makes at Charlotte on Nov. 6. Dallas held opponents to 33.9% on 38.4 attempts per game from Nov. 2 to Nov. 9, so the Mavericks will find out whether that holds against 43.4 Boston attempts per game.

Dallas's route runs through the glass and the paint. The Mavericks out-rebounded opponents 228-200 and outscored them in the paint 238-222 over those five games. Boston owns a similar rebounding margin (232-203), so Dallas has no clear edge there unless Flagg and Irving create against a set defense.

Boston's volume shooting is the more repeatable edge in the sample. Dallas's counter is to play through Flagg and Irving while Daniel Gafford protects the rim and the Mavericks hold the glass.

What are the Mavericks at Celtics win probabilities?

• Mavericks win: 43%
• Celtics win: 69%

Each percentage reflects the market's expectation for that outcome, and both can move as new information arrives. Check the contract terms to see how overtime is handled.

How could Mavericks at Celtics unfold?

Boston's offense runs through Jayson Tatum, who averages 27.1 points and 7.8 assists, and Paul George, who scored 27 points with five three-pointers at Milwaukee on Nov. 8. When Dallas sends extra help toward either one, the pass can find Derrick White, Payton Pritchard or Sam Hauser on the perimeter. NBC Sports Philadelphia named that group as shooters who can punish late rotations.

Dallas could keep its defenders closer to the shooters and accept more one-on-one work from Tatum. That choice cuts down open threes, but it gives Tatum more room to attack and puts pressure on Gafford at the rim.

At the other end, Dallas scored 130 points against Brooklyn on Nov. 8 with 64 in the paint, then 125 against Indiana on Nov. 9 behind Flagg's 43 points. Boston allowed 28 paint points at Milwaukee but 50 at Houston on Nov. 2, so its interior defense has varied from game to game.

Turnovers give Boston a small edge in the sample. Dallas committed 15.2 per game over its last five, while Boston forced 15.8 per game over its own last five and committed just 14.0.

What is the latest team news?

Both teams have pending questions, but Dallas's list is longer. The Mavericks are missing a rim protector and two reserves, while Boston has no injuries listed.

What is the latest on Mavericks?

Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery), Sergio De Larrea (right knee sprain) and Tarik Biberovic (right heel bursitis) were ruled out on Dallas's Nov. 9 injury report, according to Dallas Sports Journal. Morez Johnson Jr. is listed day-to-day with a left shin contusion. With Lively out, ClutchPoints says Gafford and Moussa Cisse handle most of the work at center.

Irving, who missed all of last season recovering from a torn ACL, played 38 minutes against Indiana after sitting the second night of Dallas's first back-to-back. Coach Dusty May said several players, including Santi Aldama (back from knee surgery), are on a game-to-game minutes approach.

What is the latest on Celtics?

No Celtics players are listed with injuries in the latest feed, and NBC Sports Philadelphia described Boston's rotation as healthy ahead of its Nov. 10 game at Philadelphia. Boston has managed its stars' minutes at times. Tatum sat the Nov. 4 win over Milwaukee, and he sat the entire fourth quarter of the Nov. 8 win at Milwaukee.

What are the projected starting lineups?

Neither team has announced its starters for this game, so both fives below are projections built from recent lineups.

How could Mavericks line up?

Projected starting five:

• Kyrie Irving
• Cooper Flagg
• Caleb Martin
• P.J. Washington
• Daniel Gafford

This projection assumes Irving plays on the second night of a back-to-back. Max Christie, who started on Nov. 2, is a possible backcourt alternative. Naji Marshall (22 points at San Antonio on Nov. 4) and Walter Clayton Jr. (20 points against Sacramento on Nov. 2) give Dallas scoring off the bench. May said Martin gives the Mavericks the best chance to be elite defensively.

How could Celtics line up?

Projected starting five:

• Derrick White
• Hugo Gonzalez
• Paul George
• Jayson Tatum
• Neemias Queta

This projection assumes both stars play. The fifth spot is unsettled: Gonzalez started Nov. 1, 2 and 4, Jordan Walsh started Nov. 6 and Mike Conley Jr. started Nov. 8, and NBC Sports lists Gonzalez as the expected starter for Nov. 10. Pritchard and Luka Garza are scoring options off the bench.

What could decide Mavericks at Celtics?

Three questions shape this game, and each ties back to Boston's volume shooting and Dallas's size and star power.

Can the Mavericks contest Boston's three-point volume?

Boston has attempted 43.4 threes per game over its last five, and Dallas has faced 38.4. Sacramento made 19 of 43 from deep in beating Dallas on Nov. 2, the clearest example of how a hot shooting night can break the Mavericks. If Boston lands near its 37.8% mark, Dallas's rebounding edge has to cover the gap.

Can Dallas win the rebounding and paint battle?

Dallas's 228-200 rebounding margin over its last five hides a bad night at San Antonio, where the Spurs won the boards 61-49 and the paint 62-40 in a 112-111 win. Victor Wembanyama had 52 points and 24 rebounds. Boston lost the paint 50-34 at Houston on Nov. 2, so size on the interior is a route for both teams.

Can Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving carry Dallas late?

Flagg had 43 points and 10 rebounds against Indiana, and he and Irving combined for 26 of Dallas's 35 fourth-quarter points, including the first 13. Before Nov. 8, Flagg was scoring just over 15 points per game in the second half compared with 10.5 in the first, according to the Mavericks. A close game on Nov. 15 gives that late production a direct role.

What could move Mavericks at Celtics prediction?

Irving's workload is the main pending decision. May said he starts Martin on nights Irving sits, and that Dallas does not know exactly when those nights will come.

If Irving rests on Nov. 15, Dallas loses a creator who made a season-high seven three-pointers against Indiana. The Mavericks would lean harder on Flagg, Martin's defense and Johnson's availability for rebounding depth, since Johnson had 17 rebounds against Utah on Nov. 6.

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