Los Angeles mayoral election winner 2026 prediction: what to know about the race
Prediction markets and polls currently favor Karen Bass, yet with varying margins.
Politics
By Barbara Pazur
Karen Bass and Nithya Raman are heading into the November 3 runoff after finishing first and second in Los Angeles' June mayoral primary. With Bass seeking reelection and Raman challenging her former political ally, the city's next mayor is still to be decided.
Bass won 34.27% of the June 2 primary vote, followed by Raman with 29.02%. Former reality-TV personality Spencer Pratt finished third with 25.53%, missing out on the runoff.
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What are the Los Angeles mayoral election predictions?
Prediction markets currently favor Karen Bass over Nithya Raman with a very slight margin.
OG.com’s Los Angeles Mayoral Election Winner prices Bass to win at 56% of implied probability, and Nithya Raman at 48% before the November 3 run-off. Each outcome is priced separately, so the displayed percentages don't necessarily add up to 100%. These probabilities may change as traders react to new information.
Market data as of October 22. For the latest probabilities, visit OG.com.
Meanwhile, the 2026 LA mayor polls have shown different margins between the candidates, and a considerable number of voters haven't decided whom to support.
A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll conducted September 15 to 20 found Raman at 39% and Bass at 28% among likely voters, with 33% undecided.
According to the LA Times, two more recent polls reported varying results. Both were sponsored by organizations with interests in local politics, so their results shouldn't be treated as independent polling.
Poll
Bass
Raman
Undecided
Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times, Sept. 15 to 20
28%
39%
33%
Pro-Raman independent expenditure group, Oct. 2 to 7/*Sponsored
33%
43%
23%
United Firefighters-sponsored poll, Sept. 25 to Oct. 5/*Sponsored
33%
35%
19%
Based on publicly available information as of October 12, 2026.
The Berkeley survey found substantial differences across age groups. Raman received 66% support among likely voters ages 18 to 29, compared with 4% for Bass. Among voters ages 65 and older, Bass led 41% to 21%.
2026 Los Angeles mayor election key dates
The LA mayor runoff in November 2026 takes place alongside the U.S. midterm elections. Eligible voters can cast ballots by mail or at county vote centers.
Date
Election milestone
June 2, 2026
Mayoral primary
June 26, 2026
Primary results certified
October 5, 2026
Vote-by-mail period begins
October 19, 2026
Regular voter registration deadline
October 24, 2026
In-person voting begins at selected vote centers
November 3, 2026
Mayoral runoff and general election
December 3, 2026
Deadline to certify general election results
December 14, 2026
New mayoral term begins
Based on publicly available information as of October 12, 2026.
Voters who miss the October 19 registration deadline can still use conditional voter registration at a Los Angeles County vote center.
How the LA mayoral election works: primary, runoff, and the 50% rule
Los Angeles holds nonpartisan mayoral elections. Candidates appear on the same primary ballot regardless of party affiliation, and their party affiliations aren't displayed beside their names.
Under Section 425 of the Los Angeles City Charter, a candidate who receives more than 50% of the primary vote wins the election outright. Otherwise, the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election.
Neither Bass nor Raman reached that threshold in June, so the two candidates qualified for the November runoff.
Los Angeles mayoral election history shows that a runoff isn't always necessary. Eric Garcetti secured reelection in the 2017 primary after winning more than 50% of the vote. The 2022 mayoral race went to November, when Bass defeated Rick Caruso.
The mayor serves a four-year term and can hold office for no more than two terms. Bass was first elected in 2022, making her eligible to seek a second term in 2026.
June 2 primary results: who advanced and who was eliminated
The official Los Angeles mayoral primary results for 2026 show Bass finishing first with 34.27% of the vote, followed by Raman at 29.02%. Pratt received 25.53%, narrowly missing the runoff.
Candidate
Votes
Vote share
Result
Karen Bass
292,593
34.27%
Advanced
Nithya Raman
247,781
29.02%
Advanced
Spencer Pratt
217,977
25.53%
Eliminated
Adam Miller
30,008
3.51%
Eliminated
Rae Chen Huang
25,220
2.95%
Eliminated
Based on publicly available information as of October 12, 2026.
Bass received 44,812 more votes than Raman, who finished 29,804 votes ahead of Pratt. Raman moved ahead of Pratt as more ballots were counted after Election Day.
Voters who supported eliminated candidates can now choose between Bass and Raman, and turnout could change with the mayoral runoff taking place alongside the general election.
Karen Bass: the incumbent's record and reelection case
Karen Bass became Los Angeles' first female mayor in December 2022, after serving in the California State Assembly and the U.S. House of Representatives. She is now seeking a second term.
Bass made homelessness a priority from her first day in office, declaring a local emergency and launching the Inside Safe program, which has moved thousands of people into temporary housing. However, the program's costs and long-term results have drawn criticism.
Her handling of the January 2025 Palisades Fire has also come under scrutiny, particularly her absence when the fire began and allegations concerning changes to an official after-action report, which she denies improperly influencing. Bass is campaigning on continuing her homelessness initiatives and improving public safety and city services.
Nithya Raman: the progressive challenger's path to the runoff
Nithya Raman, an urban planner and former community organizer, was elected to the Los Angeles City Council in 2020 after defeating incumbent David Ryu. She represents Council District 4 and has been associated with the Democratic Socialists of America.
Raman initially supported Bass' reelection before entering the race herself. Her campaign calls for greater accountability in city spending, stronger tenant protections and changes to homelessness programs, including tying funding more closely to results.
As chair of the City Council's housing and homelessness committee, Raman previously supported some of Bass' policies. Bass' allies have questioned her role in programs she now criticizes.
Spencer Pratt: how a reality-TV candidate reshaped the primary
California is no stranger to electing celebrities to office. Spencer Pratt, known for appearing on The Hills, entered the mayoral race after losing his home in the January 2025 Palisades Fire.
He criticized the city's wildfire response and campaigned on changes to public safety and homelessness policies. That approach gained a lot of traction across social media, and eventually in the polls. However, it wasn't enough, as Pratt finished third in the June primary with 25.53% of the vote, losing the runoff spot to Raman after additional ballots were counted.
His former supporters could still influence the November result. The Berkeley IGS poll mentioned earlier found that 63% of respondents who reported voting for Pratt remained undecided between Bass and Raman.
The issues driving the 2026 LA mayor race
The two candidates have different approaches to several major city policies. The 2025 Palisades Fire is still a major issue in the race. Questions about the city's preparedness, emergency response and rebuilding efforts haven't gone away.
Bass has to defend decisions made during her administration, and Raman is calling for greater accountability and changes to how Los Angeles handles future emergencies.
Homelessness is another sore point. Bass' Inside Safe program has helped move thousands of people off the streets, but its cost and the number of participants who eventually secure permanent housing remain under scrutiny.
Raman previously supported parts of the city's approach and now argues it needs closer oversight. Both also face pressure to address rising housing costs and the shortage of affordable homes.
Then there are the everyday frustrations of living in Los Angeles. Residents want safer streets, better city services and quicker emergency responses. The candidates have different ideas about police staffing and the role of unarmed responders, although both oppose aggressive federal immigration enforcement.
With the 2028 Olympics approaching, whoever wins will also inherit the challenge of getting the city ready without leaving taxpayers with unexpected costs.
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Karen Bass finished first in the June 2 primary with 34.27% of the vote, followed by Nithya Raman at 29.02%. Both advanced to the November runoff.
When is the 2026 LA mayoral runoff election?
The Los Angeles mayoral runoff takes place on November 3, 2026.
How does the LA mayoral primary runoff system work?
A candidate who receives more than 50% of the primary vote wins outright. Otherwise, the top two candidates advance to the general election.
Is Karen Bass eligible to run for reelection in 2026?
Yes. Bass was first elected in 2022 and is eligible to seek a second four-year term.
Who is Nithya Raman and why is she challenging Karen Bass?
Raman is a Los Angeles City Councilmember and urban planner who is challenging Bass over homelessness policy, housing affordability, Palisades Fire recovery and city management.
What happened to Spencer Pratt in the LA mayor race?
Pratt finished third in the June primary with 25.53% of the vote, eliminating him from the November runoff.
What are the biggest issues in the 2026 Los Angeles mayor election?
The campaign focuses on wildfire recovery, homelessness, housing costs, public safety, immigration enforcement and preparations for the 2028 Olympics.
What do the latest polls show for Bass vs. Raman?
The independent September Berkeley IGS poll found Raman at 39% and Bass at 28%, with 33% undecided. October surveys sponsored by interested groups reported different margins.
How many terms can the Los Angeles mayor serve?
Los Angeles mayors can serve a maximum of two four-year terms.
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