Hull City vs Everton prediction, team news and lineups
Everton are 47% favorites at Hull City, whose resilient start and compact defensive shape give the unbeaten visitors a more demanding assignment than promotion status suggests.
Soccer
By George Karmpoulonis
Only one point separates these teams after five Premier League matches. Everton have nine and remain unbeaten; Hull have eight after opening their return to the division with two wins and two draws before losing 2–1 at Newcastle.
Sergej Jakirović's side have already beaten Manchester United and taken a point at Chelsea. David Moyes brings an Everton team with a strong defensive platform of their own, but breaking down Hull requires a different kind of performance from protecting a narrow lead. How much the visitors can create without loosening their midfield is the central tension.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Hull City vs Everton match snapshot
Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. BST / 9:00 a.m. ET
Competition: Premier League, Matchweek 6
Hull City win: 26%
Draw: 29%
Everton win: 47%
Hull City vs Everton prediction
Prediction markets for Hull City vs Everton currently make Everton 47% favorites, with the draw at 29% and a Hull City win at 26%.
Market data as of October 07, 2026. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
Everton's price has a clear foundation. Moyes' team have conceded three league goals, and their last two matches before the break produced a goalless draw at Tottenham and a 1–0 victory over Ipswich. Jordan Pickford, James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite give them continuity through the middle of the defense.
The challenge is converting that security into enough chances to win away. Hull can defend with five across the back and a midfield line of four, leaving little room for direct passes into the penalty area. Everton may need to move the block from side to side before finding space for Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall or a runner beyond Thierno Barry.
Hull's opening results make the home-win price credible. They have already shown they can compete with established top-flight opponents, and Oli McBurnie offers a target when a shorter buildup is too risky. Securing the second ball around him would let the wide players join the attack instead of spending the entire game near their own wingbacks.
Everton's strongest vulnerability is the possibility that possession becomes slow and predictable. Their biggest selection uncertainty is at left back, where Vitalii Mykolenko's fitness could force Moyes to redistribute his fullbacks. That decision matters against Hull's wide outlets and could influence how confidently Everton commit players forward.
Hull City vs Everton prediction
Everton win — 47%
Draw — 29%
Hull City win — 26%
Everton are the leading individual outcome, but their price remains below 50%. The draw sits closer to a Hull win than to an Everton victory, reflecting a meaningful away advantage without suggesting a mismatch.
This is a fixture in which territorial control could be misleading. Everton can have more of the ball while Hull retain a credible route to chances through direct play and set pieces.
Hull City team news
Jakirović's recent league selections provide the basis for a 5-4-1, with Lewie Coyle and Ryan Giles supplying width from wingback. Mohamed Belloumi and Sorba Thomas can drop into midfield when Hull defend and move forward to support McBurnie when possession turns over.
The injury situation restricts changes through the center. Charlie Hughes has been sidelined, while Nobel Mendy's fitness requires assessment. Lucas Herrington started alongside Semi Ajayi and John Egan at Newcastle and is projected to retain his place.
Tim Iroegbunam has aggravated a groin problem, reducing the midfield options alongside the continuing fitness concerns around Hidemasa Morita. Matt Crooks and Regan Slater therefore remain the projected pairing. Elliot Stroud and Matt Targett are further availability questions affecting the left side.
Konstantinos Tzolakis has been the recent starting goalkeeper while Jack Butland is unavailable. Hull's need is for continuity and enough fit substitutes to maintain their defensive work, rather than rotation for its own sake.
Everton team news
Moyes' 4-2-3-1 has James Garner and Harrison Armstrong providing the midfield base, with Dewsbury-Hall ahead of them. Christian Nørgaard's fitness and Merlin Röhl's availability remain relevant to the depth behind that arrangement, but neither should automatically displace the recent starters.
Mykolenko's withdrawal from Ukraine duty creates the most significant defensive question. If he is not ready, Ainsley Maitland-Niles can move across to the left and Jake O'Brien can enter at right back. That is the contingency used in the projected XI below, rather than a claim that Mykolenko has been definitively ruled out.
Jack Grealish started against Ipswich after substitute appearances in the previous league matches. He is projected to continue on the left, with Brennan Johnson on the right and Barry at striker. Tyrique George remains an alternative if Moyes wants a different balance of direct running and ball retention.
Hull City lineup
Hull City are likely to line up in a 5-4-1:
Goalkeeper: Konstantinos Tzolakis
Right wingback: Lewie Coyle
Right center back: Semi Ajayi
Center back: John Egan
Left center back: Lucas Herrington
Left wingback: Ryan Giles
Right midfield: Mohamed Belloumi
Right center midfield: Matt Crooks
Left center midfield: Regan Slater
Left midfield: Sorba Thomas
Striker: Oli McBurnie
Everton lineup
Everton are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1:
Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford
Right back: Jake O'Brien
Right center back: James Tarkowski
Left center back: Jarrad Branthwaite
Left back: Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Right holding midfield: James Garner
Left holding midfield: Harrison Armstrong
Right wing: Brennan Johnson
No. 10: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Left wing: Jack Grealish
Striker: Thierno Barry
Hull City vs Everton key matchup factors
Can Everton draw Hull's midfield away from the back five?
Hull are harder to penetrate when their two defensive lines stay close together. Grealish can help Everton retain the ball on the left, but possession there needs a second action: an overlapping run, a switch of play or a pass inside before the block resets. Simply circulating in front of Hull would protect the hosts' preferred structure.
Can McBurnie bring Belloumi and Thomas into the game?
A direct pass is useful only if Hull can build on it. McBurnie's contests with Tarkowski and Branthwaite need support from midfield and the wide players. If Everton collect the loose ball uncontested, Hull lose both the attacking opportunity and the chance to move their defensive line higher.
Does the left-back decision change Everton's attacking balance?
Maitland-Niles on the left would give Moyes a different profile from Mykolenko. His relationship with Grealish would affect where Everton create width and who remains behind the ball. Hull can test that partnership by releasing Belloumi early, before the visitors settle into their defensive positions.
Can Dewsbury-Hall arrive beyond Barry?
Hull's three center backs can share responsibility for a lone striker. The harder problem is a midfielder arriving after the defenders have set their positions. Dewsbury-Hall's timing, along with Johnson's movement from the right, can make Barry's presence more useful even when the striker is not receiving the final pass.
Hull City vs Everton head-to-head
The clubs last met in the FA Cup in January 2022, when Everton won 3–2 after extra time. Their most recent Premier League meetings came in 2016–17: a 2–2 draw at Hull followed by a 4–0 Everton victory.
Those games are too distant to explain Sunday's pricing. The current evidence is the narrow points gap, Everton's unbeaten start and Hull's ability to stay competitive after promotion.
What could move Hull City vs Everton market price before kickoff?
Mykolenko's assessment could determine whether Everton retain their familiar fullback arrangement or make two positional changes. Moyes' choice between Grealish and a more direct wide option would also alter the attacking approach.
For Hull, updates on Mendy, Morita, Stroud and Targett would clarify the available defensive and midfield depth. The final bench is relevant as well as the first XI: sustained pressure is more difficult to manage when injuries limit the options for fresh legs.
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