Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans prediction (Oct. 28, 2026)
The Denver Nuggets are 68% favorites against the New Orleans Pelicans, who stand at 35% in prediction markets. A rematch just four days after Denver's overtime comeback puts New Orleans' late-game defense under scrutiny.
Basketball
By George Karmpoulonis
The Denver Nuggets visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, October 28, for their second meeting in five days. Denver won the first game 141–135 in overtime on Saturday after trailing by as many as 23 points.
Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray rescued that game with elite late scoring. Jokić finished with 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists, while Murray scored 42 points. Rookie Trevon Brazile contributed 17 points, including seven in overtime.
New Orleans starts the season 0–3 under new coach Jamahl Mosley, but Saturday's game contained signs of a much more dangerous offense than its record suggests. Trey Murphy III scored 26 points, Dejounte Murray added 22 and the Pelicans scored 70 points in the paint. The issue was maintaining that advantage once Denver raised the pressure.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans game snapshot
Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
Competition: NBA, 2026–27 regular season
Home team: New Orleans Pelicans
Denver Nuggets win: 68%
35%
New Orleans Pelicans win:
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans prediction
Prediction markets for Denver @ New Orleans currently make Denver Nuggets 68% favorites, with New Orleans Pelicans at 35%.
Market data as of October 26, 2026. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
The first meeting explains Denver's market advantage more clearly than a generic comparison of rosters. Jokić kept creating against New Orleans' interior defense, and Murray supplied the shot-making needed when the half-court offense slowed. Denver scored 37 points in the fourth quarter and another 15 in overtime.
The Pelicans have a credible response. They generated 70 points in the paint and scored 73 in the first half, with Zion Williamson attacking the rim and Trey Murphy III providing perimeter scoring. If New Orleans converts those advantages into cleaner closing possessions, the matchup becomes less comfortable for Denver.
Ball security was a major separator. New Orleans committed 18 turnovers to Denver's 11. The Pelicans scored only 18 points in the fourth quarter after entering it with a 19-point lead. That is a specific adjustment area for Mosley, not evidence that the offense cannot produce.
Denver's injury situation complicates the projection. Cameron Johnson missed Saturday's game because of an ankle problem, and Bryce Hopkins started in his place. If Johnson remains unavailable, David Adelman must get another efficient contribution from an unusually thin wing rotation.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans win probabilities
Denver Nuggets win: 68%
New Orleans Pelicans win: 35%
Denver’s two primary creators are the strongest basis for its market advantage, while New Orleans’ paint scoring and the speed of its young guards provide the main counterargument. Saturday’s result offers a direct tactical reference rather than a guarantee about the rematch.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans game outlook
New Orleans' first priority is deciding what to do with Jokić. Sending extra help can interrupt his move toward the basket, but it also exposes passes to cutters and shooters. Leaving him alone reduces those passes but asks a Pelicans center to defend one of the league's most creative scorers for long stretches.
The center decision is especially important after Yves Missi suffered a knee contusion at Utah. DeAndre Jordan started in Denver on Saturday. Derik Queen supplied 17 points off the bench, offering Mosley another offensive option when a more mobile frontcourt is useful.
On the other end, Denver cannot treat the Pelicans' 70 paint points as a one-off. Zion Williamson's drives bend a defense, and Dejounte Murray can reach the middle of the floor before the defense is fully organized. The Nuggets will need timely help without leaving Murphy unguarded on the perimeter.
Denver may again need DeMar DeRozan to run offense while Murray sits. The Nuggets used Bryce Hopkins in the opening group and relied on Brazile's production in the rematch, giving their coach workable but inexperienced combinations around Jokić. A bigger New Orleans lineup could test those groups on offensive rebounds.
The previous fourth quarter is the blueprint for what New Orleans must avoid: hurried possessions, turnovers and leaving Murray room to shoot after Denver's first option is stopped. The Nuggets still have a Monday home game against Golden State between the two meetings; New Orleans has no intervening game and can concentrate on the adjustments.
Team news and injuries
Denver Nuggets
Cameron Johnson sprained his right ankle in the season opener and missed Saturday's victory. He was listed as doubtful for Monday's game against Golden State, while Alpha Diallo (right wrist) was also doubtful. Julian Strawther (left knee) and Spencer Jones (hamstring management) were listed out for Monday.
These designations apply to Denver's Monday game; Wednesday availability has not been established by them. Johnson's return would affect the starting forward spot, with Hopkins the most recent replacement. A limited wing group would increase the importance of Gordon, Braun and the rookies defending across positions.
New Orleans Pelicans
Yves Missi sustained a knee contusion during Friday's game against Utah and did not play in Saturday's first meeting with Denver. DeAndre Jordan started at center, while Derik Queen played a substantial role off the bench. A contusion does not establish that Missi will be out Wednesday.
Mosley used Dejounte Murray and Jeremiah Fears together in the opening group Saturday, giving New Orleans two ballhandlers who can attack before the defense sets. How much center depth is available will affect whether the Pelicans can maintain that pressure without exposing the paint to Jokić.
Expected starting lineups
Denver Nuggets lineups
Projected starting five:
Jamal Murray
Christian Braun
Bryce Hopkins
Aaron Gordon
Nikola Jokić
Hopkins replaced the injured Cameron Johnson in Saturday’s actual starting five. This projection assumes Johnson is not ready to start; if he returns and is cleared for his normal role, Johnson is the established opening-game starter and the likely alternative at forward.
New Orleans Pelicans lineups
Projected starting five:
Jeremiah Fears
Dejounte Murray
Trey Murphy III
Zion Williamson
DeAndre Jordan
This follows the starting five New Orleans used in Saturday’s overtime loss, with Jordan covering for Missi. Missi started the first two games and is the obvious alternative if his knee allows him to return. Queen provides a different scoring option from the bench.
Key factors that could decide Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
What is New Orleans’ answer to the Jokić–Murray combination?
Jokić can move the defense with a pass as easily as a shot, while Murray punished New Orleans with 42 points in the first meeting. The Pelicans need earlier communication on screens and fewer defensive rotations that surrender open looks.
Can the Pelicans turn paint scoring into four consistent quarters?
Seventy points in the paint proved that Zion and the guards can reach effective spots. The fourth-quarter collapse showed the cost of losing control of possessions and allowing Denver to switch from trailing to attacking.
Does Denver have enough wing depth to match up with Murphy?
Murphy scored 26 last time. With Johnson and other wings dealing with injuries, Braun, Gordon and Hopkins have to divide perimeter assignments while preserving enough offense around Jokić.
What could move the Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans prediction?
Johnson's ankle, Missi's knee and the available Denver wing rotation are the most important injury variables. Their status would directly affect both opening lineups and the minutes spent defending Jokić or Murphy.
Monday's Denver–Golden State game also matters for workload after Saturday's overtime. Any new injury or usage decision for Jokić or Murray would be significant, but their Wednesday minutes cannot be assumed in advance.
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