Cincinnati is a 76% favorite in prediction markets despite losing to Jacksonville in Week 4. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards in that loss, while Miami's defense improved sharply in Minnesota and Ollie Gordon II rushed for 100 yards on nine carries.
Football
By George Karmpoulonis
Cincinnati travels to Miami at 2-2 after a 22-17 loss to Jacksonville, while the Dolphins remain winless after falling 15-10 at Minnesota. The Bengals are still heavy favorites, but the market has moved slightly toward Miami as Cincinnati waits on Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins prediction snapshot
Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Competition: NFL, Week 5
Cincinnati Bengals win: 76%
Miami Dolphins win: 25%
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins prediction
Cincinnati's 76% market position still reflects one of the clearest quarterback advantages of Week 5.
Joe Burrow completed 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards against Jacksonville. Even after losing both starting wide receivers, he drove the Bengals from their own 17-yard line to the Jaguars' 12 in the final two minutes before the comeback ended.
Ja'Marr Chase left early with a concussion, while Tee Higgins exited late with a groin injury after catching 11 passes for 157 yards. Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor described both receivers as day-to-day on Monday, although Chase must still progress through the concussion protocol.
Their availability is the biggest uncertainty in the game.
Miami's defense gives the Dolphins a reason to believe the market gap can narrow. The unit held Minnesota without a touchdown and recorded four sacks, its first four of the season. Zach Sieler produced two, while Josh Uche and Chop Robinson also got to Kyler Murray.
The Dolphins' offense remains the harder sell. Malik Willis completed 9 of 17 passes for 85 yards and lost a fumble. Miami ran only 37 offensive plays and held the ball for 20:49.
Ollie Gordon II changed the game whenever he had space. He rushed nine times for 100 yards and a touchdown, including a 53-yard run that set up Miami's only touchdown.
That performance gives Miami a credible early-down plan. If Gordon can force Cincinnati to respect the run, Willis can work from more manageable passing situations rather than trying to match Burrow throw for throw.
Cincinnati's own run game was almost nonexistent against Jacksonville. The Bengals finished with 23 rushing yards and asked Burrow to throw 54 times. That is sustainable for stretches because of Burrow's talent, but it becomes less attractive if Chase and Higgins are unavailable.
Miami's best chance is to keep the game compressed through the run, generate pressure without blitzing heavily and make Cincinnati string together long drives with a reduced receiving corps.
The Bengals remain the stronger pick because Burrow gives them a much higher passing ceiling. Miami's 0-4 record and limited passing production make it difficult to support the underdog unless Cincinnati's injury situation worsens.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins prediction
Cincinnati Bengals win: 76%
Miami Dolphins win: 25%
Market data as of October 6, 2026.
Cincinnati remains a strong favorite, but the price has softened from the previous market snapshot. Chase's concussion and Higgins' groin injury are the obvious reasons to be more cautious, while Miami's improved pass rush and Gordon's breakout game provide the underdog case.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins game outlook
Cincinnati's offensive plan depends heavily on who is available outside.
If Chase and Higgins both play, the Bengals can spread the field and force Miami to choose which one-on-one matchup to accept. Burrow showed against Jacksonville that he can sustain a high-volume passing game and continue moving the offense even when the run game is not contributing much.
Cincinnati rushed for only 23 yards against Jacksonville. That is the biggest structural weakness in the favorite's case.
Miami's defense can make this much harder if it wins with four rushers and forces Burrow to work through a condensed receiving group. The Dolphins' four sacks against Minnesota were a significant improvement after entering the game without a sack on the season.
When Miami has the ball, Gordon needs to remain central. His 100 rushing yards came on only nine carries, and his 53-yard burst was the Dolphins' biggest play of the afternoon.
Willis needs those types of runs to keep the game manageable. Cincinnati will be far more comfortable if Miami is repeatedly asking Willis to convert third-and-long through the air.
The Bengals' secondary also enters the week with health questions. Kyle Dugger missed Week 4 with a quadriceps injury, while Bryan Cook and B.J. Hill had also been managing injuries before the Jacksonville game.
Miami's best route is therefore a low-possession game with explosive runs, defensive pressure and limited passing volume for Willis. Cincinnati wants Burrow to create an early lead and force Miami away from the run.
Team news and injuries
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol after leaving the Jacksonville game in the first half.
Tee Higgins is dealing with a groin injury after exiting late. He had already produced 11 catches for 157 yards before leaving.
Zac Taylor characterized both receivers as day-to-day on Monday, but Chase's return depends on clearing the league's concussion protocol.
B.J. Hill, Bryan Cook, Swayze Bozeman and Kyle Dugger are also carrying Week 5 injury questions. The first full practice report will clarify their status.
Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis remains Miami's starting quarterback after the Dolphins fell to 0-4 in Minnesota.
Ollie Gordon II rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown on nine carries and should remain a central part of the Week 5 game plan.
Robert Beal Jr. and Caleb Douglas are among the players currently carrying injury questions entering the week, while the Dolphins' official Wednesday practice report will provide the clearest update.
Miami's defensive front came through Week 4 with its best pass-rush performance of the season.
Key factors that could decide Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Are Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins available?
Nothing changes the matchup more.
Burrow can compensate for missing weapons better than most quarterbacks, but Cincinnati's spacing and explosive-play potential are different without Chase and Higgins.
Miami can devote more bodies to the box and short passing windows if it does not have to defend both outside threats.
Can Miami's pass rush repeat its Week 4 performance?
The Dolphins entered Minnesota without a sack and left with four.
That needs to become a trend rather than a one-game spike. Burrow will punish passive coverage if Miami gives him time, regardless of which receivers are active.
The Dolphins need pressure from the front four so they can keep enough defenders in coverage.
Can Ollie Gordon II keep Miami balanced?
Miami cannot ask Willis to win a high-volume passing game against Burrow.
Gordon's ability to create explosive runs gives the Dolphins a way to shorten the game, control down and distance and reduce Cincinnati's possession count.
If Cincinnati stops him early, the matchup shifts sharply toward the favorite.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins head-to-head
Cincinnati won the most recent meeting 45-21 in Miami in December 2025.
Burrow threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns in that game, while Cincinnati turned a series of Miami turnovers into a runaway second half.
The current Dolphins have changed at quarterback, but the broad lesson still applies: Miami cannot allow Cincinnati to create a pass-first game with extra possessions.
What could move Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins market price before kickoff?
Chase's concussion status should create the biggest movement.
Higgins' groin injury is almost as important because Cincinnati becomes much easier to defend if both starting receivers are limited.
For Miami, the key questions are whether Gordon remains healthy after his increased role and whether the pass rush can maintain the improvement from Minnesota.
Any new Cincinnati offensive-line limitation would also strengthen Miami's clearest path to an upset.
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