Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors prediction, team news and lineups on Nov. 11, 2026

The Celtics at Raptors game on Wednesday, November 11, pairs a Celtics team that has won four of its last five with a Raptors team still waiting on three headline players. Kawhi Leonard has not played since October 23, and Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley are working back from groin and hamstring injuries.

The Celtics (8-2) have won through three-point volume and rebounding, while the Raptors (5-4) have scored in the paint and won the turnover count. Which version of the Raptors takes the floor depends on who is healthy, and the Celtics arrive from a game at the 76ers the night before.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

When is Celtics at Raptors?

• Date: Wednesday, November 11, 2026
• Tip-off: 7 p.m. ET
• Competition: NBA, 2026–27 regular season
• Home team: Raptors
• Celtics win: 60%
• Raptors win: 41%

What is the Celtics at Raptors prediction?

The Celtics are favorites at 60%, with the Raptors at 41%, according to OG.com prediction markets. These implied probabilities reflect the market's expectations, not guaranteed outcomes, and prediction market prices can change as traders react to new information. Market data as of November 9, 2026. For the latest market probabilities, check the OG.com platform.

The Celtics' case starts with three-point volume. Over their last five games, from November 1 to November 8, they took 217 threes, made 82 (37.8%) and outscored opponents 546-485. Opponents hit 68 of 169 threes (40.2%) against the Raptors from October 30 to November 6, which gives that volume a target. Both are five-game samples against different schedules.

The Raptors' case runs through the paint and the turnover count. They scored 262 paint points in those five games (52.4 a night) and committed 71 turnovers while forcing 88. The Celtics' only loss in their last five, 109-93 at the Rockets on November 2, came when they committed 16 turnovers and allowed 18 fast-break points.

The strongest version of the Raptors' case needs Barnes and Quickley, who supply the shot creation the paint route requires. Without them, the Raptors need Jamal Shead and Alijah Martin to repeat the performances that beat the Bucks on November 6. The Celtics' case depends on their shooting traveling, and this is a road game.

Celtics at Raptors win probabilities

• Celtics win: 60%
• Raptors win: 41%

The 19-point gap gives the Celtics a clear lean without making the Raptors long shots. In sports prediction markets, each percentage is the market's expectation that the team wins the game. Check the contract terms to see how overtime is handled.

How could Celtics at Raptors unfold?

Three questions shape the possessions: where the Celtics' threes come from, how the Raptors get into the paint, and how each team protects the ball.

At the Bucks on November 8, the Celtics shot 45 of 95 with 18 made threes, outscored the Bucks 44-28 in the paint and won the rebounding 48-36. The Bucks are 1-9, so that game shows the Celtics' ceiling against a struggling team.

The Raptors' defense is the open question. In their last five games they allowed 54 paint points a night, including 76 to the Nuggets on November 4, and 121 points a game overall. The Celtics averaged 35.6 paint points in the same stretch, so any Raptors plan has to choose a concession. Help in the paint opens kick-out threes, and staying home on shooters opens driving lanes. The Celtics' recent results show they can score either way.

On the other end, the Raptors need RJ Barrett, Barnes and Quickley to create paint touches. Barrett has scored at least 22 points in four straight games, from November 1 to November 6.

What is the latest team news?

Both teams arrive with rotations still settling, though the Raptors' list is longer.

What is the latest on the Celtics?

No Celtics player carries an injury designation in ESPN's latest injury feed. Jayson Tatum's workload is the main storyline. He sat out the November 4 win over the Bucks and the fourth quarter on November 8, and MassLive says occasional nights off figure to be a regular part of his return from a ruptured Achilles tendon. Tatum said he is still in the "rehab phase" of his return.

Paul George was rested at the Rockets on November 2 and has scored 25 and 27 in two of his last three outings. Jaylen Brown, traded to the 76ers, faces his former team for the first time on Tuesday.

What is the latest on the Raptors?

Leonard is out. He has played twice this season, has completed treatment for left knee swelling and is in a return-to-play process, but coach Darko Rajakovic said Sunday he is not yet taking part in on-court team activities. The Toronto Sun says he will likely miss all four Raptors games this week, a stretch that includes this one.

Barnes (adductor) and Quickley (hamstring) took part in only part of Sunday's practice and were expected to be listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Grizzlies, according to the Toronto Sun. The same report said either could return Wednesday if he sits Monday. ESPN's feed also lists forward Nate Bittle as out with a foot injury.

What are the projected starting lineups?

Neither team has announced a starting five for Wednesday. These projections follow each team's recent starters and the availability assumptions stated below.

How could the Celtics line up?

Projected starting five:

• Mike Conley
• Derrick White
• Paul George
• Jayson Tatum
• Neemias Queta

This projection assumes George and Tatum play on the second night of a back-to-back. The fifth spot has rotated among Conley (November 8), Jordan Walsh (November 6), Sam Hauser (November 4) and Hugo Gonzalez, who started three of the last five, so Gonzalez or Hauser is the likely alternative.

How could the Raptors line up?

Projected starting five:

• Immanuel Quickley
• Ja'Kobe Walter
• RJ Barrett
• Scottie Barnes
• Collin Murray-Boyles

This projection assumes Barnes and Quickley are available. Shead and Jakob Poeltl started in their place on November 6 and are the likely alternatives if either is ruled out. Martin, who scored a career-high 27 points that night, is the reserve to watch.

What could decide Celtics at Raptors?

The first question is the one the Raptors can control most directly: who wins the possession count.

Can the Raptors win the turnover and transition battle?

The Raptors had fewer turnovers than their opponents in four of their last five games and outscored them on the fast break 66-58 in total. The Celtics were outscored on the fast break 62-51 over their own five games, so transition is the area where the visitors have given up the most. A Raptors lead there would shorten the Celtics' half-court possessions and cut into their three-point attempts.

Who controls the glass and the rim?

The Celtics out-rebounded opponents 232-203 across their last five games and won the board count in four of them. The Raptors out-rebounded theirs 197-188, though they lost it 36-29 at the Nuggets. Neemias Queta had 16 points at the Rockets and 13 at the Bucks, while Poeltl had 19 against the Bucks. If the Celtics keep their rebounding edge, each miss becomes another chance at their three-point volume.

Can the Raptors' shot creation hold up without its stars?

The Raptors beat the Bucks 121-107 on November 6 without Leonard, Barnes and Quickley, outscoring them 70-47 in the second half. Shead set a career high with 16 assists, Martin made six of seven threes and Barrett added 27 points. That formula worked against a Bucks team that is 1-9, and the Celtics' defense has held opponents to 97 points a game in their last five.

What could move Celtics at Raptors prediction?

Two pending decisions could change the basketball picture before tip-off.

The Celtics play at the 76ers on Tuesday, which makes Wednesday the second night of a back-to-back, part of the wider daily sports prediction markets schedule. Their handling of those nights has varied: George sat the second night of the November 1 and 2 back-to-back while Tatum played 32 minutes. Coach Joe Mazzulla said before the team's first back-to-back that availability on the second night "just depends." If George or Tatum sits, Hauser, Gonzalez or Baylor Scheierman takes on more minutes and the Celtics lose a primary creator on the wing.

On the Raptors' side, Monday's game against the Grizzlies is the next checkpoint for Barnes and Quickley. If both play and come through, the Raptors' starting group returns to its November 2 form. If either sits again, Shead and Poeltl are the likely starters and the Raptors depend on role-player scoring.

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