Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers game prediction and team news
Prediction markets make the Indiana Pacers 55% favorites over the Atlanta Hawks at 46%. Tyrese Haliburton's return and a new starting center meet a Hawks team missing key rotation players.
Basketball
By George Karmpoulonis
The market gives Indiana a narrow edge. The basketball question is whether a new Pacers starting five can beat an Atlanta group that has already shown depth.
The Atlanta Hawks visit the Indiana Pacers on Saturday, October 10, with Atlanta 1-1 in the preseason and Indiana 1-0. The Pacers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 123-112 with Tyrese Haliburton back on the floor for the first time in 472 days.
Atlanta won its last time out 123-116 at San Antonio, after a 123-132 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. The Hawks protected the ball in the win, with 10 turnovers against 22 for the Spurs.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers game snapshot
Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
Tip-off: 7 p.m. ET
Competition: NBA, 2026–27 preseason
Home team: Indiana Pacers
Atlanta Hawks win: 46%
55%
Indiana Pacers win:
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers game prediction
Prediction markets for Atlanta @ Indiana currently make the Pacers 55% favorites, with the Hawks at 46%.
Market data as of October 9, 2026. For the latest market-implied probability, check the OG app.
The Pacers' case starts with a first unit built around Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam and new center Ivica Zubac. Indiana moved the ball well against Minnesota, finishing with 39 assists.
Indiana's vulnerability is that the group is new. Coach Rick Carlisle said after the Minnesota game that the starters need small adjustments to play more efficiently together. Zubac, who played the first half, had three turnovers.
Atlanta's route runs through its guards and its bench. Kingston Flemings, the eighth overall pick in June's draft, scored 15 points on 6-of-8 shooting at San Antonio. If Atlanta keeps turnovers low, it can stay close against an Indiana team that gave the ball away 20 times against Minnesota.
The largest swing factor is who plays and for how long. Preseason minutes shift responsibility from starters to reserves quickly, and both teams have rotation questions that will decide how much of the first-unit matchup the game actually contains.
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers odds
Atlanta Hawks win: 46%
Indiana Pacers win: 55%
These prices lean toward the home team, but the gap is small for an exhibition in which both sides are still testing lineups.
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers game outlook
Indiana's most useful edge is inside. The Pacers scored 50 points in the paint against Minnesota's 28, and Zubac gives them a true center to screen for Haliburton. If Atlanta's defenders step up to the point guard, the lane opens behind them.
Atlanta's counter is pace and ball security. The Hawks scored 20 fast-break points at San Antonio, and their guards can push the ball after rebounds. Indiana's small-ball groups also ran well in the opener, when Obi Toppin played center in a lineup that produced a 15-0 run.
The rotation battle may matter more than the starting fives. Carlisle used nine players in the competitive part of the opener. Atlanta's bench, led by Asa Newell and Flemings, supplied much of the scoring in San Antonio.
Team news and injuries
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks listed Jalen Johnson (rest), Luguentz Dort (knee), Keshon Gilbert (knee) and Mouhamed Gueye (foot) as day-to-day, with Henri Veesaar out with a knee injury. Johnson sat out the San Antonio game for rest. If he sits again, Dyson Daniels and Asa Newell take more of the forward minutes.
CJ McCollum missed the Memphis game with a nose contusion and then started against the Spurs. His presence in the starting group is what pushes Flemings back to the second unit, where he has played well.
Indiana Pacers
Larry Nance Jr. (hamstring) and T.J. McConnell (undisclosed) are day-to-day, and Johnny Furphy is out with a knee injury. McConnell missed the opener, so if he sits again, Ben Sheppard fills the ninth spot in the rotation as he did against Minnesota.
Haliburton scored seven points with six assists in 16 minutes in his return. Carlisle said before that game that he would get a good chunk of minutes.
Expected starting lineups
Atlanta Hawks lineups
Projected starting five:
CJ McCollum
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Dyson Daniels
Jalen Johnson
Onyeka Okongwu
This projection assumes Johnson is available; Asa Newell is the likely alternative if he rests again. Flemings is the first guard off the bench in this projection.
Indiana Pacers lineups
Projected starting five:
Tyrese Haliburton
Andrew Nembhard
Aaron Nesmith
Pascal Siakam
Ivica Zubac
This is the group that started against Minnesota. Obi Toppin, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Jarace Walker headed the first substitutions in the opener.
Key factors that could decide Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
Can Atlanta keep its turnover edge?
Indiana's turnovers in its opener give the underdog a clear way to turn the game into a transition contest, provided Atlanta stays tidy with its own passes.
How quickly do Haliburton and Zubac find their timing?
Haliburton and Zubac connected on early screens in the opener. The more often that action works, the sooner Indiana's first unit looks like its best version.
Whose bench holds up?
Jarace Walker's playmaking powered Indiana's reserves, while Flemings and Newell gave Atlanta its spark. The second units will see the most minutes in a preseason game, so that matchup may decide the final margin.
What could move Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers odds?
Johnson's rest status and McCollum's availability are the main Atlanta questions, because each changes who creates in the starting group. For Indiana, Haliburton's minutes and Zubac's workload decide how much of the first-unit edge shows up.
Important information
Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG). Crypto.com | Derivatives North America uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.
Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.
