US Recession by End of 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are at least two consecutive quarters in 2026 in which the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in U.S. real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is negative, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution will be based on the BEA's Advance GDP Estimate for the final quarter of 2026, or any earlier release that confirms two consecutive negative quarters within the 2025–2026 window. Revisions issued after settlement have no effect on the settled outcome. The official resolution sources are the agencies listed in Rule 14.67(c) in the CDNA Rulebook, which can be found [here](https://www.nadex.com/rules/). The notice of submission pursuant to CFTC regulation 40.2(a) for Rule 14.67 can be found [here](https://assets.ctfassets.net/8c2uto3zas3h/5FYmSvzQOPoVlVO4bnGtIf/184180f54f954f7e4a2a832778b10c39/PUBLIC_CDNA_Statistic_Certification_of_Event_Contract.pdf). Trading is temporarily paused during scheduled maintenance periods. Settlement Source: Rule 14.67(c) in the CDNA Rulebook