Johannus Monday vs Francesco Maestrelli

Maestrelli enters as the clear favorite, his YES contract at 0.64 against Monday's 0.42 — a combined 106% book that normalizes to roughly 60/40 after vig. The matchup dynamic is straightforward: the market respects Maestrelli's edge at this Challenger level, but the schedule matters. He was slated against Jack Loge on Nov 10 at the same event, creating a quick turnaround into this fixture. The edge sits in that fatigue question — if Maestrelli was pushed the day before, Monday at 0.42 becomes the value side; if he cruised, the favorite's price holds. Information is thin; trade the schedule, not the noise.