Who will win the US Open men's singles? Prediction and odds

The men's US Open looked very different a week ago.

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner was expected to arrive as one of the two obvious favorites after winning Wimbledon and compiling a 44–3 record in 2026. A persistent right knee injury has taken him out of the tournament altogether.

That leaves defending champion Carlos Alcaraz at the top of the market — but hardly without questions of his own. The Spaniard has not played competitively since April because of a right wrist injury. Alexander Zverev arrives having finally broken through for his first major at Roland Garros, Novak Djokovic is still chasing an unprecedented 25th major, and a group of younger contenders have produced some of the best tennis of the North American summer.

The field is open enough to be interesting.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Who will win the US Open men's singles?

Prediction markets for Men's US Open Winner currently make Carlos Alcaraz the favorite at around 28%, with Alexander Zverev the nearest challenger.

• Carlos Alcaraz — 28%
• Alexander Zverev — 20%
• Novak Djokovic — 10%
• Ben Shelton — 8%
• Rafael Jodar — 6%
• Taylor Fritz — 5%
• Arthur Fils — 4%

Market data as of August 27, 2026. Prices can move throughout the tournament. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.

Alcaraz being favorite makes sense. Being a 28% favorite tells a more complicated story.

He is the defending champion, a two-time winner in New York and already owns seven major titles. Before injury interrupted his season, Alcaraz had gone 22–3 in 2026 and completed the career Grand Slam by winning the Australian Open. His career record at the US Open is 24–3.

But Sunday will be his first competitive appearance in more than four months. That is a significant unknown in a best-of-five tournament.

Zverev does not carry the same question around match fitness. He won Roland Garros in June for his first major title and then reached another Grand Slam final at Wimbledon, where Sinner beat him in four sets.

Djokovic brings the opposite proposition: less convincing recent form, but four US Open titles and 24 majors worth of evidence that he can survive two weeks of Grand Slam tennis.

Then come the disruptors. Shelton just defended his Canadian Masters title without dropping a set. Fils won Cincinnati. Fritz won Washington. Nineteen-year-old Rafael Jodar has gone from outside the top 500 a year ago to one of the most talked-about young players on tour.

Alcaraz has the highest ceiling. Zverev arrives with the strongest combination of current match fitness and major form. The gap between those two and everyone else is much less comfortable than it would have been with a fully fit Sinner in the draw.

1. Carlos Alcaraz

Current title probability: 28%

Alcaraz is simultaneously the easiest favorite to understand and the hardest contender to assess.

The case for him is enormous. He won this tournament last year, beating Sinner in four sets in the final, and also lifted the trophy in 2022. He began 2026 by winning the Australian Open, becoming the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam, and was 22–3 before the wrist problem stopped his season.

At his best, there is no obvious weakness to target.

Alcaraz can dictate with the forehand, defend far beyond what his attacking style suggests, change pace with the drop shot and turn defensive points into offense almost instantly. His athleticism also makes him particularly difficult to finish on a hard court.

There are no question marks around his ability - but the bear case is four months without a competitive match.

Alcaraz last played in Barcelona in April, when the right wrist injury forced him out after his opening match. The US Open will be his first tournament back.

That changes the usual calculation. An early round may be straightforward on paper, but Grand Slam tennis gives players very little room to ease themselves back into competition. One long five-set match can expose physical or timing issues that practice cannot replicate.

The absence of Sinner makes Alcaraz's path to another title considerably more inviting. Whether his body and timing are ready to take advantage is probably the biggest question in the entire men's tournament.

2. Alexander Zverev

Current title probability: 20%

There is no longer a question over whether Zverev can win a major.

He already has. After years of near misses, the German won Roland Garros in June, beating Flavio Cobolli in five sets in the final. A month later he reached another major final at Wimbledon.

That matters psychologically as much as statistically. Zverev no longer arrives at a Grand Slam carrying the burden of being one of the best players of his generation without one of the four biggest trophies.

He will also be the top seed in New York following Sinner's withdrawal.

The recent hard-court form has been less clean. Zverev lost early in Canada and admitted his confidence had taken a hit before recovering to win two matches in Cincinnati. Tommy Paul eventually beat him 4–6, 7–6, 6–4 in the round of 16.

Still, his game translates naturally to New York. A huge first serve gives him cheap points over long matches, while his backhand remains one of the most reliable weapons in men's tennis. He also has history here: Zverev reached the 2020 final and came within a deciding-set tiebreak of the title.

At 20%, the market is effectively treating him as the strongest alternative to an Alcaraz comeback going perfectly.

3. Novak Djokovic

Current title probability: 10%

There may never be a comfortable time to write off Novak Djokovic at a Grand Slam. At 29, he has not won a major since the 2023 US Open.

He also owns 24 major singles titles and four in New York. The opportunity for a 25th obvious. Sinner is absent. Alcaraz is returning from a long injury. Djokovic therefore enters a Grand Slam without having to assume that both younger rivals will stand between him and the trophy.

His 2026 major results have remained strong too. Djokovic reached the Australian Open final and Wimbledon semifinals. He is still capable of navigating a two-week draw better than almost anybody.

The concern is physical. His Cincinnati return lasted one match. Djokovic won the opening set against Thiago Agustin Tirante before visibly struggling in the heat and humidity and eventually losing 2–6, 6–4, 6–4. He later said a health issue had been aggravated by the conditions.

New York can be physically brutal too. Best-of-five tennis magnifies that concern, particularly if Djokovic lands in a difficult section of the draw.

The market still gives him 10% for a reason. If he reaches the second week healthy, nobody will want him on the other side of the net.

4. Ben Shelton

Current title probability: 8%

No American man arrives with better recent form than Ben Shelton.

He successfully defended his Canadian Masters title earlier this month, beating Brandon Nakashima in the final and completing the entire six-match run without dropping a set.

That is significant hard-court evidence. Shelton's serve is already among the most disruptive weapons in the draw, and when the forehand is firing he can shorten points quickly enough to make a two-week major run much less physically demanding.

New York has suited him before. He reached the semifinals in 2023 and tends to feed off the energy and pace of a major event.

But there is a small complication in the form line. Shelton went straight from his Montreal title to Cincinnati and lost his opening match 6–4, 6–4 to qualifier Jaime Faria, snapping a six-match winning streak.

That looks more like a warning against assuming momentum is permanent than a major concern. The bigger test is best-of-five consistency.

Shelton has the weapons to beat virtually anybody over one afternoon. Winning seven Grand Slam matches requires keeping those weapons under control when the serve dips or the match becomes ugly.

At 8%, he is probably the clearest American title threat.

5. Rafael Jodar

Current title probability: 6%

Rafael Jodar being this high in the market would have sounded extraordinary a year ago.

He was ranked around No. 540 last August. This month he broke into the top 20.

The 19-year-old Spaniard has not crept up the rankings quietly either. Jodar reached the Washington final after beating Lorenzo Musetti on the way, then followed it with a Masters semifinal in Montreal before losing to Brandon Nakashima.

That is a serious run of hard-court form.

He also has the advantage that comes with being unfamiliar. The leading players have fewer repetitions against his patterns, serve and return positions than they would against someone such as Medvedev or Fritz.

The obvious question is scale. A deep ATP 500 run and a Masters semifinal are very different from surviving seven best-of-five matches at a major.

Jodar has never dealt with anything quite like this expectation before. That makes 6% aggressive compared with some of the established names behind him.

It also reflects how quickly his season has changed the conversation.

Who else could win the US Open?

There is plenty beneath the leading five.

Taylor Fritz — around 5%

Fritz has probably the strongest combination of American experience and recent results outside Shelton. He won Washington earlier this month, beating Jodar in the final, and reached the 2024 US Open final. His Cincinnati run ended in the quarterfinals against an in-form Nakashima.

He knows how to make a deep run here.

Arthur Fils — around 4%

Fils may be the most interesting name outside the leading group.

He arrives having just won Cincinnati, beating Frances Tiafoe 6–3, 1–6, 6–0 for his first Masters 1000 title. The run also included wins over Alex de Minaur and Flavio Cobolli.

His season has already included Masters semifinals in Miami and Madrid, and the Cincinnati title took him to 32–10 for the year.

The question is Grand Slam evidence. Fils has won only two US Open matches in his career and missed last year's tournament through injury. Current form says dangerous, but history says prove it.

Frances Tiafoe deserves a mention after reaching the Cincinnati final. He has also repeatedly played some of his best tennis in New York.

Brandon Nakashima reached the Montreal final and Cincinnati semifinals, giving him a tour-leading 22 hard-court wins by the latter stage of that run.

Then there are established names such as Felix Auger-Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev, Alex de Minaur and Flavio Cobolli.

None currently carries a large title probability. In a draw without Sinner, that matters less than usual.

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How could the US Open draw shape the men's title race?

This is the next big piece of information. At the time of writing, the men's main draw has not yet been released. It is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET on Thursday, August 27. Main-draw play begins Sunday, August 30.

Zverev will be the top seed following Sinner's withdrawal, while Djokovic is seeded fourth. For the title market, the interesting part will not be the opening round.

It will be where the major contenders land relative to each other.

Does Djokovic fall into Alcaraz's half or Zverev's?

Do Shelton, Fritz or Fils land in a quarter that suddenly gives them a realistic path into the final weekend?

Does one side of the bracket collect several of the dangerous American hard-court players?

And most importantly for Alcaraz, how quickly is he forced into a physically demanding matchup after four months away?

The draw will not change who the best players are.

It can change considerably how difficult their route to the trophy becomes.

Key factors for the 2026 men's US Open

How quickly can Alcaraz find match rhythm?

This is the obvious one.

Practice can reproduce strokes. It cannot reproduce being 4–4 in a fourth set after three hours.

Alcaraz's wrist may be medically ready, but match rhythm is a separate issue. The early rounds will tell us much more than any practice report about whether the 28% favorite is genuinely ready to win seven best-of-five matches.

Can Zverev carry his major form onto hard courts?

Zverev has already had an excellent Grand Slam season.

He won Roland Garros and reached the Wimbledon final.

His North American hard-court preparation has been far less commanding.

If he finds his serve and baseline timing in New York, he may have fewer weaknesses in his title case than anyone except a fully fit Alcaraz.

Which American can make the deepest run?

There is unusual depth in the home group. Shelton won Montreal, Fritz won Washington, Tiafoe reached the Cincinnati final, while Nakashima reached the Montreal final and followed it with a Cincinnati semifinal.

The United States has not produced a men's singles champion here since Andy Roddick in 2003.

This field offers several plausible ways for that drought to be challenged.

Does best-of-five expose the younger contenders?

This is where a Grand Slam differs from the Masters events that have shaped much of the recent market.

Shelton, Jodar and Fils have all shown they can beat elite opponents on hard courts. Doing it repeatedly over best-of-five is different.

A player can lose concentration for 20 minutes in a Masters match and be out of the tournament. At a major, the extra sets can create opportunities to recover — but they also increase physical workload dramatically over two weeks.

Zverev, Djokovic and Alcaraz have already proved they can live in that environment. Several of their challengers are still trying to.

How much does Sinner's absence change everything?

A lot. Sinner entered the summer as world No. 1, Wimbledon champion and one of the two players who had dominated the recent major landscape.

He is not merely another top seed missing. His withdrawal removes one of the tournament's most likely champions and opens an entire section of the draw that would otherwise have been built around avoiding him.

Alcaraz benefits, but so does everybody else.

Recent US Open men's champions

• 2025 — Carlos Alcaraz
• 2024 — Jannik Sinner
• 2023 — Novak Djokovic
• 2022 — Carlos Alcaraz
• 2021 — Daniil Medvedev

Alcaraz is trying to become the first man to defend the title since Roger Federer completed five consecutive victories from 2004 through 2008.

What could move US Open men's title odds next?

The draw comes first. A favorable or brutal quarter can change the outlook quickly, particularly for Alcaraz as he returns without recent match play.

Then comes fitness. Alcaraz's wrist will be scrutinized from his opening match. Djokovic's physical response after his Cincinnati problems will matter too.

Early-round workload can become just as important.

A contender cruising through the first three rounds in straight sets can arrive at the second week in a very different physical state from somebody who has already survived two four-hour matches.

The younger hard-court contenders will also have to prove that their recent form survives the change in format.

Shelton's Montreal title, Fils' Cincinnati win and the runs produced by Jodar, Nakashima and Tiafoe have made the field deeper.

Now they have to do it over best-of-five.

And prices will continue to move as the bracket opens up. An upset in another section of the draw can materially improve a player's path without that player hitting a single ball.

That is why the current market should be treated as a snapshot before the main draw rather than a final verdict on the tournament.

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