Who will win the US Open men's singles? Prediction and odds
Alexander Zverev leads the prediction markets to win the 2026 US Open men's singles title, but Ben Shelton has blown the draw open by eliminating defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set quarterfinal epic.
Carlos Alcaraz had looked increasingly difficult to stop after returning from more than four months out with a wrist injury.
Instead, Ben Shelton produced the biggest win of his career, beating the defending champion in five sets after four hours and 28 minutes and advancing to an all-American semifinal against Frances Tiafoe.
That removes the player who had dominated the market through much of the tournament.
Alexander Zverev now sits at the top despite still having a quarterfinal to play.
The reigning French Open champion faces Botic van de Zandschulp, with either Karen Khachanov or Alexander Blockx waiting in the semifinal if he progresses.
The other half is already set.
Shelton will face Tiafoe for a place in the final after Tiafoe recovered from two sets down to beat Alex Michelsen in another five-set quarterfinal.
Four Americans started the quarterfinal stage across the two singles draws. Two American men are now guaranteed to produce one finalist.
The tournament has become much more open than it looked only a day ago.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Who will win the US Open men's singles?
Prediction markets for Men's US Open Winner currently make Alexander Zverev the favorite at 45%, with Ben Shelton close behind at 39%.
Alexander Zverev — 45%
Ben Shelton — 39%
Frances Tiafoe — 13%
Karen Khachanov — 6%
Market data as of September 9, 2026. Prices can move throughout the tournament. For the latest market-implied probabilities, check the OG app.
The most interesting part of that hierarchy is that Zverev still has an extra match to win.
Shelton and Tiafoe are already semifinalists. Zverev remains in the quarterfinals against van de Zandschulp, while Khachanov still has to get through Blockx.
The market is therefore making a strong judgment about the two halves of the draw.
Shelton has removed Alcaraz, but his reward is another American who has repeatedly produced his best Grand Slam tennis in New York. Tiafoe is into his third US Open semifinal and has already endured a four-hour, 38-minute comeback against Michelsen.
Zverev's route looks different.
Van de Zandschulp remains dangerous and has already produced major upsets at this tournament, but Zverev is the No. 1 seed, the reigning Roland Garros champion and has reached at least the quarterfinals at every major this season.
Khachanov or Blockx would then await in the semifinal.
That is why the German can be the favorite despite technically being one round behind Shelton and Tiafoe.
Alcaraz's elimination has changed the tournament completely.
There is no remaining former US Open champion. Zverev has won a Grand Slam but never this one. Shelton and Tiafoe have both reached the semifinals here before without making the final. Khachanov was a semifinalist in 2022.
Somebody new will lift the trophy.
1. Alexander Zverev
Current title probability: 45%
Zverev now has the clearest route on paper.
That does not mean he is already in the semifinals.
Botic van de Zandschulp has spent years proving that he is capable of making life uncomfortable for elite opponents in New York. He eliminated Alex de Minaur earlier in this tournament and produced a five-hour, 13-minute comeback against Arthur Gea to reach the quarterfinals.
But Zverev has increasingly looked like a player comfortable with his status as the top seed.
His tournament started awkwardly. He needed five sets against Lorenzo Sonego and another five against Quentin Halys.
Since then, he has settled.
Zverev beat Alejandro Tabilo in straight sets, then defeated Luciano Darderi 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 to reach the last eight. He has now reached the quarterfinals at all four majors in 2026, including winning Roland Garros and reaching the Wimbledon final.
That combination of form and draw explains the 45%.
There is also a physical advantage relative to some of the players remaining in the opposite half.
Shelton has just played 4 hours and 28 minutes against Alcaraz. Tiafoe needed 4 hours and 38 minutes against Michelsen.
Zverev has played plenty of tennis himself, but his fourth-round win was completed in straight sets.
The concern is that looking ahead to the final would be dangerous.
Van de Zandschulp has nothing to lose, and the Dutchman has already shown he can disrupt elite players on these courts. If Zverev gets through, either Khachanov's experience or Blockx's breakout run presents a different problem.
At 45%, Zverev has become the player everybody else has to dislodge.
He still has to earn the semifinal place the two leading Americans already possess.
2. Ben Shelton
Current title probability: 39%
Shelton has just removed the tournament favorite.
That changes everything.
He entered the Alcaraz match having never beaten the Spaniard in three previous meetings and with an 0-17 career record against Top-3 opponents.
Four hours and 28 minutes later, both records were gone.
Shelton recovered after losing the opening set, took control of the second and third, absorbed an Alcaraz response in the fourth and then held his nerve through a deciding-set tiebreak to reach the semifinals.
The serve was again central.
That has been the foundation of his entire tournament. Before the quarterfinal, Shelton had won 88% of his service games and had already beaten Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Against Tsitsipas he did not face a single break point and won 83% of his first-serve points.
Against Alcaraz, he proved something broader.
Shelton did not simply serve his way through a vulnerable opponent. He survived long stretches of baseline pressure against one of the best movers and defenders in the sport, stayed aggressive in the deciding set and handled one of the biggest moments available to him.
That makes 39% understandable.
The question is recovery.
Shelton finished his quarterfinal deep into the New York night after one of the longest and most physically demanding matches of his career.
Tiafoe will not arrive completely fresh either, but Shelton has to come down emotionally and physically from beating the defending champion and prepare for an opponent who is entirely comfortable on this stage.
He is one match from becoming the first American man to reach the US Open final since Taylor Fritz in 2024.
Two matches from ending the country's wait for a men's singles champion since Andy Roddick in 2003.
3. Frances Tiafoe
Current title probability: 13%
Tiafoe keeps finding a different version of himself at the US Open.
This one may be the most resilient yet.
Alex Michelsen led their quarterfinal by two sets and served for the match in the third. Tiafoe survived, turned the momentum and eventually completed a 5-7, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 comeback after four hours and 38 minutes.
He is now into his third US Open semifinal.
That matters because Tiafoe's New York record is becoming too consistent to treat as a crowd-driven anomaly. He is 29-11 at this tournament and has never won more than 15 matches at any of the other three majors.
His 13% probability nevertheless puts him well below Shelton.
There are reasons.
Shelton has produced the biggest win of the tournament and has been serving at a level capable of shortening sets quickly. He is also ranked higher and arrived in New York after winning Montreal.
But Tiafoe knows this stage.
He reached the semifinals in 2022 and again in 2024. On both occasions, the final remained just out of reach.
This time he gets another chance against a fellow American.
The physical equation is almost impossible to ignore. Tiafoe's quarterfinal was ten minutes longer than Shelton's and required him to recover from two sets down.
Neither man enters Friday fresh.
That may make the semifinal less about who has played the better tournament and more about who can recover enough to produce another high-intensity match.
At 13%, Tiafoe is the clear market outsider in that semifinal.
New York has repeatedly been the place where he makes those assessments uncomfortable.
4. Karen Khachanov
Current title probability: 6%
Khachanov is the most experienced player left in his quarter of the draw.
That does not mean his route is straightforward.
The 30-year-old came into the US Open on a four-match losing streak and ranked No. 50 in the world.
His tournament has completely changed that story.
Khachanov beat No. 3 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round, then survived a five-set fourth-round match against Learner Tien to reach his seventh career Grand Slam quarterfinal.
He has been here before too.
Khachanov reached the US Open semifinals in 2022 and has made the quarterfinals or better at all four majors.
The immediate obstacle is Alexander Blockx.
The Belgian is playing the best Grand Slam tennis of his life and has beaten Flavio Cobolli and Francisco Cerundolo on his way to the last eight.
There is one significant uncertainty around Blockx: he suffered a rib problem against Cerundolo and admitted afterward that he had come close to retiring.
Khachanov therefore has a plausible path.
Beat a physically uncertain first-time quarterfinalist and he reaches the semifinals. If Zverev progresses as expected, the German would then represent a huge step up.
Six percent reflects that combination.
Khachanov is experienced enough to take advantage if the draw opens further.
He still has two matches to win simply to reach the final.
Who else could win the US Open?
Only two other players remain in the men's draw.
Neither appears in the four outcomes shown in the current market graphic, but both are one quarterfinal win away from the last four.
Botic van de Zandschulp
Van de Zandschulp has already produced one of the tournament's great endurance performances.
His fourth-round victory over Arthur Gea lasted five hours and 13 minutes, the fourth-longest US Open match since the introduction of the tiebreak.
He has also built a reputation for disruption in New York.
The Dutchman reached the quarterfinals here in 2021 and eliminated Alcaraz in the second round of the 2024 tournament.
This year's path has included wins over No. 6 seed Alex de Minaur and No. 31 Zizou Bergs.
The difficulty is Zverev.
Van de Zandschulp faces the highest seed remaining, a player with 50 match wins this season and a first Grand Slam title already secured at Roland Garros.
There is also the workload.
No remaining quarterfinalist entered this stage having spent more time on court than van de Zandschulp, and his five-hour fourth-round match came only two days before facing Zverev.
He has already upset better-ranked players.
Doing it twice more before a final would be an altogether different challenge.
Alexander Blockx
Blockx is the tournament's genuine breakout story.
The 21-year-old entered his first US Open main draw having already climbed rapidly through the rankings during 2026.
Now he is a Grand Slam quarterfinalist.
He has earned it too.
Blockx reached the Madrid semifinals earlier this season and has beaten Cobolli and Cerundolo in New York, demonstrating enough attacking quality to make the run more than a favorable-draw accident.
The concern is physical.
Blockx injured his ribs during the Cerundolo match and said afterward that he seriously considered retiring if he had lost the third set.
That makes the Khachanov quarterfinal difficult to assess.
If Blockx is physically unrestricted, his serve and first-strike power make him dangerous against an opponent ranked outside the Top 40 himself.
If the injury compromises his serve or rotation, the biggest match of his career becomes substantially harder.
He has already exceeded any reasonable preseason expectation.
Now we find out whether the run still has another round in it.
Zverev is the only current market contender who has already won a major this year.
He also has the most attractive remaining route on paper.
That combination creates pressure of a different kind.
The absence of Sinner opened the draw before the tournament. Djokovic then disappeared in the first round. Alcaraz has now been eliminated by Shelton.
Zverev cannot control any of that.
What he can control is whether he capitalizes.
Van de Zandschulp has already spent extraordinary amounts of time on court. The other quarterfinal in Zverev's half contains world No. 50 Khachanov and first-time Grand Slam quarterfinalist Blockx.
There will not be many cleaner opportunities to reach a US Open final.
Zverev's first week showed why nothing can be assumed — he needed five sets twice — but his tennis has become progressively sharper.
The 45% market probability is now as much about opportunity as reputation.
How much has the Alcaraz win taken out of Shelton?
Shelton produced the performance of his career.
Now he has to recover from it.
That is one of the strange demands of Grand Slam tennis. Beating Alcaraz in a four-and-a-half-hour classic earns Shelton nothing more than another match two days later.
The emotional recovery may matter almost as much as the physical one.
Shelton had spent months trying to break through against the very top tier. His record against Top-3 opponents had been 0-17.
He has now done it on the biggest stage available to him in America.
There is a danger in treating the semifinal as an aftermath rather than another problem to solve.
Tiafoe will make that particularly difficult. He knows the environment, feeds off the same crowd and has reached this stage twice before.
Shelton has already proved that his ceiling is high enough to win the tournament.
Friday asks whether he can reproduce something close to it.
Which American recovers better?
There will be an American man in the US Open final.
That much is guaranteed.
The identity of that player may come down partly to recovery.
Shelton needed 4 hours and 28 minutes to beat Alcaraz.
Tiafoe needed 4 hours and 38 minutes to beat Michelsen.
Neither semifinalist has been handed a gentle route.
Tiafoe's match may have been even more physically draining because he spent two sets chasing before finally turning it around. Shelton's contest finished later and carried enormous emotional intensity.
Their games impose different demands too.
Shelton can shorten stretches with his serve. Tiafoe is more likely to make the match depend on repeated exchanges, movement and changes of rhythm.
If Shelton serves at the level he produced against Tsitsipas and Alcaraz, he can protect tired legs.
If Tiafoe drags him into repeated physical rallies, the balance may change.
Can Khachanov or Blockx take advantage of the open top half?
The top half has become the clearest opportunity of the tournament.
One of Khachanov and Blockx will reach the semifinals.
Neither began the tournament among the leading favorites.
Khachanov has the experience. He has played major semifinals before and has already come through difficult five-set tennis this fortnight.
Blockx has the freshness of a player with very little historical baggage at this stage — but possibly not the physical freshness after his rib problem.
Whichever player progresses is likely to enter the semifinal as an outsider if Zverev advances.
That does not make the opportunity small.
One upset would put either man into a Grand Slam final.
In a tournament that has already lost Sinner, Djokovic and Alcaraz, assuming the draw will finally become predictable now would be dangerous.
Has the tournament become Zverev versus the Americans?
Almost.
The current market certainly reads that way.
Zverev leads at 45%, while Shelton and Tiafoe collectively occupy most of the visible chasing probability.
There is an obvious structural reason.
Shelton and Tiafoe are already in the semifinals, guaranteeing an American finalist from the bottom half.
Zverev is the dominant remaining name in the top half.
That creates a potential final around two very different stories: the established European No. 1 seed trying to add a second major in the same season, against an American attempting to end a 23-year wait for a home men's champion.
But there are still quarterfinals to play.
Van de Zandschulp, Khachanov and Blockx get a vote before that narrative becomes reality.
Recent US Open men's champions
2025 — Carlos Alcaraz
2024 — Jannik Sinner
2023 — Novak Djokovic
2022 — Carlos Alcaraz
2021 — Daniil Medvedev
None of them can win the tournament this year.
Sinner withdrew before the event because of his knee injury. Djokovic lost in the opening round. Medvedev was beaten by Tiafoe, and defending champion Alcaraz has now fallen to Shelton.
That guarantees a first-time US Open men's singles champion.
For Zverev, it would be a second major after his breakthrough at Roland Garros.
For Shelton, Tiafoe, Khachanov, van de Zandschulp or Blockx, it would be a first Grand Slam singles title.
The tournament opened without a clear favorite.
It will end with a champion we have never seen here before.
What could move US Open men's title odds next?
The two remaining quarterfinals come first.
Zverev is the favorite because of both his level and his route, but he has not yet reached the stage Shelton and Tiafoe are already occupying. A van de Zandschulp upset would remove the 45% market leader and transform the tournament again.
Khachanov versus Blockx has a different set of uncertainties.
Blockx's rib problem is the obvious one. If he moves and serves freely, the Belgian has already demonstrated enough quality to trouble Khachanov. If the injury limits him, Khachanov's experience becomes even more significant.
Then recovery takes over.
Shelton and Tiafoe have both played enormous quarterfinals. How their bodies respond by Friday may matter more than anything we learned from the first four rounds.
Serve performance will be particularly important for Shelton. A high first-serve percentage allows him to shorten games and protect himself physically. If that level drops, Tiafoe gets more opportunities to turn service games into contests.
Zverev's workload matters too.
A straight-sets quarterfinal would leave the favorite in a very different position from being dragged through another four or five sets.
And the draw itself still has another rewrite left in it.
One of van de Zandschulp, Khachanov and Blockx is guaranteed to reach the semifinals.
If that player then removes Zverev, the US Open final would contain two players who were nowhere near the top of the market when the fortnight began.
After what has already happened in New York, that no longer sounds particularly impossible
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