How soccer event contracts work: guide to trading Soccer Championship
As the world focuses on the 2026 tournament, many US traders are turning to prediction markets like OG.com to take a position on soccer events.
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By Ekaterina Drozdovica
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, these markets allow you to trade "Yes" or "No" contracts based on your assessment of an outcome's probability. Whether you are following the Group Stage or the Final, here is what you need to know about how soccer event contracts work.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. All trading involves risk and you could lose your entire investment. Please see below for further disclosures.
What are soccer event contracts?
A soccer event contract is a binary derivative that pays out based on a specific real-world result. Every contract on OG.com is framed as a simple "Yes" or "No" question.
For example, a market might ask: "Will Spain win the game on June 27?"
If you believe they will win, you trade the Yes contract.
If you believe they will not win, you trade the No contract.
If you believe the match will end in a draw, you trade the Tie contract
The price of a contract typically ranges between $0.01 and $0.99. This price represents the market's collective belief in the probability of that outcome occurring. If a "Yes" contract is trading at $0.65, the market estimates a 65% chance of that event happening.
How event contracts settle in soccer
Understanding settlement is the most important part of trading. On OG.com, contracts generally settle at one of two values:
$1.00: If the outcome occurs (the "Yes" was correct).
$0.00: If the outcome does not occur (the "Yes" was incorrect).
90-minute rule
When trading soccer contracts, settlement often depends on the "Full Time" result. This typically includes the 90 minutes of regulation plus any injury or stoppage time added by the referee.
Unless a specific market is listed for "To Advance" or "Include Extra Time," results during extra time or penalty shootouts may not count toward the settlement of a standard match-winner contract. Always check the specific market rules before opening a position.
Trading vs. holding to settlement
One of the key benefits of prediction markets is flexibility. You do not have to wait for the final whistle to finish your trade.
Holding to settlement: You hold your contract until the event is over. If you are correct, the contract settles at $1.00.
Closing early: You can sell your contract back to the market at any time before the event ends. If the probability of your outcome increases during the game, the price of your contract will likely rise, potentially allowing you to exit early for a profit.
Exploring different soccer markets
Beyond simple match winners, OG.com offers several ways to trade on soccer.
Totals (Over/Under)
Trade on whether the combined goals in a match will be over or under a specific line (e.g., 2.5 goals).
Parlays
Combine multiple outcomes into a single trade. For a soccer parlay contract to settle at $1.00, every "leg" or condition in the contract must be correct.
Tournament Longs
Trade on which teams will advance from the Group Stage or reach the Final.
How to trade soccer event contracts on OG.com
Create or log in to your OG.com account.
Search for soccer markets in the OG.com app and choose an event contract.
Read the contract rules carefully so you understand settlement conditions.
Review the fees, potential payout, and risk before confirming your trade.
Track your open position as new information comes in.
On OG.com, event contracts can cover match results, over/under goal totals, and other clearly defined outcomes. Before trading, it’s important to review the contract rules, fees, and risks so you understand how the market will settle.
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Risks and settlement
Every event contract is settled at either $0 or $100 – depending on whether the defined outcome occurs. There is no partial settlement. Traders can lose their entire cost to enter any transaction, including fees.
A soccer event contract is a binary contract based on a specific soccer outcome, such as whether a team will win, whether a match will end in a tie, or whether the total goals will go over or under a set number. On OG.com, these contracts are typically framed as “Yes” or “No” outcomes and settle based on the market’s stated rules.
Does extra time count in soccer event contracts?
It depends on the specific market rules. Standard match-result contracts often settle based on the full-time result, which usually includes 90 minutes plus stoppage time, but not extra time or penalty shootouts. Markets such as “to advance” may include extra time or penalties, so traders should review the rules before opening a position.
Can I close a soccer event contract before the match ends?
Yes. In many prediction markets, you do not have to hold a contract until settlement. If the market remains open, you may be able to close your position before the match ends by trading out of it. The price can move during the match as the market’s view of the outcome changes.
Important Information: Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG) Crypto.com | Derivatives North America and uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.
Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.
