Predicting The Pro Hockey Playoffs 2nd Round

Although we only had one game seven in the first round of the Hockey playoffs, we are still getting top-notch matchups on a nightly basis. We had Montreal and Tampa Bay decide every game by one goal, Buffalo win a playoff series for the first time since 2007, and a clean sweep by the Western Conference favorites in Colorado. There’s plenty of hockey left to be played, though, and we’ll see if the favorites can hold serve or if someone will mount a miracle run down the stretch. With both of last year’s championship representatives knocked out, it's truly anyone’s cup to win this year.

Predicting the Second Round of the Pro Hockey Eastern Conference 

Carolina won their first round series without trailing for a single second against Ottawa. At the time of writing this, they are already up 2-0 on Philadelphia while beating them in overtime late Monday night. Now, they’ll head to Philadelphia, where they hope they can continue winning on the road. Carolina has been bolstered by strong performances in goal, specifically by Frederik Andersen, who has allowed the fewest average goals against in the playoffs thus far. He’s sporting a .958 save percentage and has credit for six wins, the most of anyone left in the field. 

Philadelphia found itself in this matchup after beating Pittsburgh in the first round. This is their first playoff appearance since the 2019-2020 season, and they made it to the Eastern Conference Semifinals in that season as well, but were eliminated by New York in seven games. If they’re going to go further in the playoffs this time around, they’ll have to dig out of this 0-2 hole against the Eastern Conference favorites. Our prediction markets currently give Philadelphia just a 10% chance to win this series. In the bigger picture, if Carolina makes it through this series, our markets give them a 64% chance to win the Eastern Conference and a 35% chance to win the championship. These numbers are a direct result of Carolina already having a 2-0 lead in their series, which started a day before all of the others. 

The other side of the bracket features a Buffalo team that broke the longest playoff drought in Pro Hockey history coming into the postseason. They played Boston in the first round and took every road game in the series to win it 4-2. That was Buffalo’s first postseason series win in 19 years, but they’re not ready to go home yet. Alex Lyon has been incredible in net, with the second-highest save percentage in the playoffs so far. Buffalo’s biggest struggle has come from their power play unit, which has only scored one goal in 24 attempts this postseason. Still, they’ve made it to the second round and will now face Montreal, the only team left in the playoffs that has played in a game seven this year.

Montreal had their hands full in the first round, where they beat Tampa Bay 4-3. Every game in that series was decided by one goal, and they were either tied or within one goal of each other for all but six minutes of the series. The home team only won two games in the entire series, and Montreal was able to win game seven despite being outshot 29-9. Nevertheless, they get the opportunity to move on and play Buffalo in a battle of Atlantic Division rivals. Our prediction markets give Buffalo a 60% chance to win the series, but just an 8% chance to win the championship. If you believe Montreal will make it through this series, our markets give them an equal 8% chance to win the championship. 

Predicting the Second Round of the Pro Hockey Western Conference

Colorado already has a 1-0 lead against Minnesota in the second round, but a larger long-term trend is working against them. They won the trophy for having the best regular-season record in the league this year. However, the winner of this trophy has not won a championship since Chicago in 2012-2013. Colorado has had the best record in the league twice in the last five seasons, but was not able to buck the trend in their first go-round with the best record. Now, they’re hoping this time will be different. Colorado has made the playoffs every season since 2018, but only have one championship to show for it in 2022. They’re hoping they can highlight this constant success with another trophy in their trophy case.

Minnesota is hoping to stop Colorado in their pursuit of another championship. They’re already down 0-1 in the series, but game one was an exciting, high-scoring affair. Minnesota was able to erase a three-goal deficit and take a 5-4 lead in the second period Sunday Night. However, Minnesota and Colorado combined for six goals in the third period, with five of them going against Minnesota, giving them a 6-9 loss in game one. Minnesota has only missed the playoffs twice since 2013, but this is the first time they’ve made the second round since 2015. And if you go back to the last time they’ve won more than one round in the playoffs, that will take you all the way back to 2003. If you think they can win two rounds in the playoffs for the first time in 23 years, our prediction markets give them a 26% chance to win the series. Colorado is the favorite to win the Western Conference at 55% and the second favorite to win the championship at 34%.

The winner of that series will have to play the winner of Anaheim versus Vegas. Anaheim is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2018, and they’re in the second round by defeating Edmonton in the first round 4-2. This is the first time since 2021 that Connor McDavid and Edmonton did not win a playoff series. Anaheim took advantage of Edmonton’s lack of defense and goaltending, and currently has the third-highest Goals Per Game at 3.86, and are tied for the highest power play percentage with Dallas. They’re down in the series 0-1 after dropping game one to Vegas 3-1. 

Vegas is hoping to protect home ice again in game two. They find themselves in the second round after defeating Utah 4-2 in the first round. Vegas has made the playoffs every season except for 2022 since they became a franchise in 2018. They’ve amassed 13 playoff series wins in their nine seasons, and they won the championship in 2023. But now, three years later, they’re trying to get the job done with a new cast of characters. Our prediction markets give Vegas an 82% chance to win this series and a 15% chance to win the championship. If you believe Anaheim can pull the upset here, you can get them at +257 to win this series.

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