Predicting the Pro Hockey Conference Championship

There are only four teams left in this hockey postseason tournament, and it’s finally coming down to the wire. The Eastern Conference has the heavily battle-tested Montreal, coming off back-to-back series that went to game seven, and the well-rested Carolina, who will have 11 games in between their series. The winner of that series will play the winner of the Western Conference, which will either be Colorado, who has only lost one game so far in these playoffs, or Vegas, who has only missed the playoffs once in the history of their program. All four teams have a shot to win it all. Who will rise to the occasion and take it?

Predicting the Pro Hockey Eastern Conference Final Round

Montreal has gone to back-to-back game sevens en route to their Eastern Conference Finals appearance. In the first round, they played Tampa Bay in a series that was either tied or separated by one goal for nearly the entire series. After that, they faced Buffalo, who had just won their first playoff series in 19 years. The final game of that series was decided in overtime, after a controversial early whistle took a goal off the scoreboard for Buffalo. Now, Montreal advances, having played the most games in the playoffs of any team remaining. Montreal has been bolstered by the goaltending of Jakub Dobes, who leads the playoffs in total saves with 363 on a .910 save percentage. Montreal also owns a 23-16 record against Carolina in the playoffs all-time. 

They’ll face Carolina, who has made quick work of the two teams they’ve played so far this postseason. They dominated Ottawa in the first round, where they didn’t trail for a single second of the first round. Then they continued their hot streak against Philadelphia, where they completed another sweep. They were up 2-0 on Philadelphia before Montreal even started their series against Buffalo, and now they’ll play their first game of the Eastern Conference Playoffs on 11 days' rest.  This was the first time a team swept the first two rounds of the playoffs since the four-round, best-of-7 format was adopted in 1987. Frederik Anderson has been great for them in goal as well, with a .950 save percentage, the best of anyone left in the postseason. He has only allowed 10 goals this entire postseason. 

Our prediction markets make Carolina the heavy favorite in this matchup, giving them a 72% chance to advance to the championship round. They’re the second-favorite in the market to win the championship with a 37% chance to win, behind only Colorado in the Western Conference. If you believe Montreal will pull the upset, you can get them at +233 odds to advance to the championship. Our markets give Montreal the longest odds to win the championship, with just a 12% chance of winning. 

Predicting the Pro Hockey Western Conference Final Round

The Western Conference will feature a powerhouse matchup between Colorado and Vegas. Both of these teams have won a championship in the last four years, with Colorado winning in 2022 and Vegas in 2023. Colorado won the President’s Cup Trophy for having the best record in the regular season, which is widely seen as a curse for your postseason aspirations. The last team to win a championship after having the best record in the regular season was in 2012-2013, when Chicago achieved it. Colorado last won the President’s Cup Trophy in 2021, which was also the only other time they faced Vegas in the playoffs. They lost that series 4-2. 

Vegas is hoping they can keep the curse of the President’s Trophy going. They’ve won both of their series against Utah and Anaheim 4-2. They lead the playoffs in goals scored so far in the playoffs with 44, and RW Mitch Marner leads the charge with 18 points and a +11. Vegas has enjoyed a lot of success in the short time they’ve been a franchise, making the playoffs every year but 2022 since they were established in 2018. They’ve now won 14 playoff series in those eight years, but this is the first time they’ve made it back to the Conference Finals since they won the championship in 2023. 

Our prediction markets make Colorado the favorite in this matchup, with a 71% chance to advance to the championship. They’re also the favorite to win the championship this season, with a 42% chance to win it all. If you believe Vegas will pull the upset in this series, you can get them at +222 odds to do so. Our markets also give them a 14% chance to win the championship this season. 

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