Predicting The 2026 Masters Golf Tournament

The first sign that Spring has officially arrived is when the world’s top golfers head to Augusta National for the first major tournament event of the year, The Masters. The beautiful scenery of Augusta and a field of familiar faces is always a must-see weekend experience. But this year brings its own intricacies and situations that may lead to a new golfer putting on the green jacket when it's all said and done. This is the first Masters since 1994 that will not have either Tiger Woods or Phil Michelson in the field. From Scottie’s cold streak to Rory’s Career Grand Slam, this tournament presents a unique field full of past winners and the next up-and-coming talent.

The Masters Tournament Schedule

On Thursday, April 9th, at 7:30 am ET, the honorary starter ceremonies will commence, and the tournament will begin.  Golfers will be split up into two groups, where the first group will take the morning rounds on Thursday and the evening rounds on Friday, while the second group will golf the inverse of that schedule. A lot of handicappers take this opportunity to see if there will be any weather interference that will impact a single group or not. After the first 36 holes, the top 50 golfers will move on to the weekend, and everyone else will not make the cut. The remaining field will play 36 more holes, and the golfer with the lowest score under par will win the tournament, a legendary green jacket, and a lifetime invitation to The Masters. 

Predicting the Masters Tournament Winner

Last year’s winner was one we’ll remember for a long time. A win in Augusta eluded McIlroy for a long time. He had won every other major tournament early on in his career. He won the 2011 U.S. Open, the 2012 and 2014 PGA Championships, and 2014 Open Championship, but could not get it done when he played in The Masters. That all changed last year when he entered a playoff at -11 with Justin Rose and emerged victorious. McIlroy, the reigning champion, is near the top of the odds board in this tournament as well, but no one has one back-to-back Masters tournaments since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002. If you think McIlroy can break that streak, our prediction markets give him an 8% chance to win the tournament this weekend. 

The favorite in the field is none other than Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler has won five majors in his young career, including two green jackets in 2022 and 2024. He has 20 PGA Tour tournament wins and has only missed 19 cut lines since he joined the tour in 2020. But Scheffler has yet to round into form so far this golf season. He has made the cut in all six tournaments he’s played this season, but has only won one event so far, that being the American Express in late January. It’s been over two months since he recorded the lowest score of the weekend, and has only appeared in six of the 12 tournaments this year. Our prediction markets give Scottie Scheffler an 18% chance to correct his slump and win the tournament this weekend. In a 91-golfer field, the odds of the favorite being 18% represents an overwhelming favorite, since the remainder of the field is split up between so many players.

Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm round out the top four golfers at the top of the odds board. It’s still a bit more difficult to handicap these golfers because they both left the PGA Tour for LIV Golf a few years ago. DeChambeau was one of the first major winning golfers to jump ship when he left in the summer of 2022, while Rahm followed soon after in 2023. They are two of the 11 players in the field who come from LIV Golf. They’re also both two-time major winners, with DeChambeau winning the 2020 and 2024 U.S. Open and Rahm winning the 2021 U.S. Open and the 2023 Masters. Although Rahm is the only one to win one in Augusta, DeChambeau has made the cut seven times in his 10 Masters appearances and had his best finish at year when he tied for fifth place in the field. Our prediction markets give both DeChambeau and Rahm a 9% chance to win this year’s Masters. 

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