New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys prediction and odds

The Dallas Cowboys enter the NFL preseason finale at 2–0 after two composed performances from their reserves, while the New Orleans Saints arrive at 0–2 and searching for a response to a turnover-heavy shutout loss. With most established starters expected to be spectators, the central question is which team's backup quarterbacks and roster-bubble units can execute cleanly for four quarters.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys prediction snapshot

• Date: Friday, August 28, 2026
• Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. CT / 8:00 p.m. ET
• Competition: NFL, Preseason Week 3
• New Orleans Saints win: 42%
• Dallas Cowboys win: 59%

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys prediction market odds

• Dallas Cowboys win - 59%
• New Orleans Saints win - 42%

Market data as of August 28, 2026.

The market makes Dallas a clear but not overwhelming favorite. That position fits the evidence from the first two preseason games: the Cowboys have received efficient quarterback play, created explosive passes and allowed only 20 total points. New Orleans' route to narrowing the gap depends on Spencer Rattler or Zach Wilson protecting the ball and a reshuffled reserve offense avoiding the penalties and red-zone mistakes that buried it against the Los Angeles Rams.

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys prediction and match outlook

Dallas' edge is built around the players expected to take the meaningful snaps, not the quality of its regular-season starting lineup. Joe Milton has completed 21 of 28 preseason passes for 286 yards and three touchdowns, adding another score on the ground. His second summer in Brian Schottenheimer's offense is showing in his command and touch: against the Arizona Cardinals, he produced 179 passing yards, three total touchdowns and no turnovers in one half.

Sam Howell has been less spectacular but gives Dallas an experienced alternative. He has completed 15 of 22 passes for 159 yards, one touchdown and one interception across two games. The competition remains open, and the need to evaluate both quarterbacks should keep the Cowboys' offense functional even after the first rotation leaves. Camden Brown and Jonathan Mingo have also supplied a genuine downfield element, combining for several explosive plays while competing for receiver spots.

New Orleans has a credible counterargument because preseason form is volatile and its quarterback competition creates its own urgency. Rattler and Wilson are both expected to play, with the No. 2 job behind Tyler Shough still unsettled. Each has already led productive stretches this preseason, but neither strengthened his case against the Rams: Wilson went 6-of-12 for 55 yards with an interception, while Rattler threw for 141 yards and had a goal-line interception returned for a touchdown.

The Saints moved the ball into scoring territory twice in the second half of that 34–0 defeat, only for the pick-six and a fumble near the goal line to erase those drives. That is both the concern and the underdog case. New Orleans does not need a dramatic schematic reinvention to be competitive; it needs its quarterbacks to finish drives, its offense to avoid long-yardage situations and its defense to force Dallas to sustain possessions instead of surrendering explosive gains.

The likeliest pattern is Dallas playing from a steadier offensive base while its defense tests New Orleans on obvious passing downs. The Cowboys' vulnerability is that the quarterback split can interrupt rhythm, especially if Howell receives extended work behind a changing offensive line and with limited tight-end depth. If the Saints can keep the game close into the second half, when both teams reach the bottom of the roster, Dallas' early advantage becomes less secure.

Team news and injuries

New Orleans Saints

Coach Kellen Moore has confirmed that most Saints starters will sit after accumulating 145 snaps across three joint practices. Shough and the established first-team skill players therefore should not define this game; the focus shifts to Rattler and Wilson, who are expected to make their final cases for the backup job.

The reserve offense has also lost bodies. Running back Ty Chandler and tight end Moliki Matavao were placed on injured reserve after the Rams game, while the backfield has already been working around other absences. Kendre Miller returned for six carries last week, Audric Estimé is expected to play after recovering from an ankle issue, and recently added Zamir White gives the Saints another option. That rotation offers power, but its pass-protection communication and ball security matter more than any one runner's carry total.

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott and most established starters sat the first two preseason games as Dallas used joint practices for much of its first-team work. The finale remains centered on Milton and Howell, with Schottenheimer yet to name a backup. Milton's production gives him the stronger game résumé; Howell's work in camp has kept the decision open and makes his likely extended opportunity against New Orleans especially significant.

Dallas is thin at tight end for this game. Michael Trigg and D.J. Rogers have been dealing with injuries, prompting the Cowboys to add Mitchell Van Vooren. Zack Kuntz and Van Vooren could handle much of the workload after Luke Schoonmaker received only limited snaps in Arizona. That matters because inexperienced tight ends can affect protection calls and the quick-game options available to whichever quarterback is behind center.

Key factors that could decide New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys

Can the Saints' quarterbacks protect scoring opportunities?

New Orleans lost the turnover battle 3–0 and committed 12 penalties for 96 yards against the Rams. The most damaging mistakes came with points available: Rattler's interception became a defensive touchdown, and Chandler's fumble ended another drive near the goal line. Against a Dallas defense that has repeatedly held up in short-field and goal-line situations, avoiding self-created negative plays is the Saints' clearest path to a different result.

Does Dallas maintain its explosive passing edge through both rotations?

Milton has paired arm strength with better touch, while Brown and Mingo have turned accurate downfield throws into touchdowns and long gains. Howell can keep Dallas on schedule, but he has not matched Milton's explosive output and threw a late interception in Arizona. If both quarterbacks protect the ball, Dallas should retain the deeper and more stable passing rotation; if the handoff produces stalled drives, New Orleans can keep the game compressed.

Can New Orleans' reserve line keep the game out of obvious passing downs?

Dallas held Seattle to 156 total yards and no points over the final three-and-a-half quarters, then allowed only one touchdown to Arizona. Those are reserve-heavy preseason samples rather than a reliable forecast of the regular season, but they do show a unit playing with discipline under defensive coordinator Christian Parker. New Orleans needs manageable down-and-distance situations so Rattler and Wilson can use the quick game rather than hold the ball against fresh pass rushers.

New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys head-to-head

The Saints won the teams' most recent regular-season meeting 44–19 in September 2024. That result carries little predictive weight here: the quarterbacks, coaching context and game-day personnel are substantially different, and most starters will not play. The franchises have not met in the preseason since Dallas won 30–7 in 2006, another result too distant to inform the current reserve rotations.

What could move New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys odds before kickoff?

The most important late variable is the exact quarterback order and workload. A longer opening stint for Milton would strengthen Dallas' early-game outlook, while substantial Howell snaps would put more weight on whether he can turn solid possession play into touchdowns. For New Orleans, the Rattler-Wilson split and the reserve offensive-line combination will shape how much of Moore's offense remains available.

Any late decision involving Dallas' injured tight ends or New Orleans' depleted backfield could also affect protection and second-half continuity. Because established starters are being protected and roster cuts follow on Sunday, unexpected scratches among key reserves would matter more here than the availability of star players who were already unlikely to participate.

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