Everton vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds and Projected Lineups

Everton enter Matchweek 3 unbeaten after James Tarkowski’s late equalizer against Bournemouth, while Manchester United arrive following a 5–2 response against Ipswich Town. The central question is whether United’s fluid attacking unit can control an Everton side capable of creating pressure through direct play, second balls and set pieces.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Everton vs Manchester United Match Snapshot

• Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
• Kickoff: 2:00 p.m. BST / 9:00 a.m. ET
• Competition: Premier League, Matchweek 3
• Everton win: 31%
• Draw: 27%
• Manchester United win: 44%

Everton vs Manchester United Prediction

There is no doubt that Manchester United deserve to begin as narrow favorites, but the 44% probability reflects both their attacking potential and the defensive questions that remain around Michael Carrick’s team.

United recovered from their opening 2–0 defeat against Hull City by scoring five against Ipswich. Bruno Fernandes produced a hat trick, while Bryan Mbeumo and Marcus Rashford helped stretch the opposition around Matheus Cunha’s movement through the center. United generated 33 shots, demonstrating how quickly their attack can take control when Fernandes receives possession in advanced spaces.

That performance did not completely settle the defensive argument. Ipswich scored first and finished with two goals, while Hull had previously exposed United with direct attacks and transitions. Everton possess several tools capable of testing those vulnerabilities, particularly Thierno Barry’s physical presence, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s movement around the striker and the aerial strength of Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite at set pieces.

David Moyes’ side have four points from their opening two league matches. Everton defeated Crystal Palace 2–0 before drawing 1–1 with Bournemouth, where Tarkowski’s stoppage-time equalizer preserved their unbeaten start. Barry also scored a midweek hat trick against Preston, although his missed opportunities against Bournemouth showed that Everton still need greater efficiency from their attacking pressure.

United’s ability to create chances in several different ways gives them the clearest route to victory. Everton’s structure, direct threat and set-piece quality nevertheless make the home-win outcome more credible than the market’s draw probability.

Market data as displayed September 1, 2026: Manchester United 44% | Everton 31% | Draw 27% | $5,706 volume. For live odds check the OG.com app.

Everton vs Manchester United Odds

• Manchester United win — 44%: United are narrow favorites after their five-goal performance against Ipswich, with Fernandes, Mbeumo, Rashford and Cunha offering multiple attacking routes.
• Draw — 27%: The market assigns the draw the lowest probability, despite both meetings last season being decided by a single goal.
• Everton win — 31%: Everton’s unbeaten start, defensive experience and set-piece threat give Moyes’ side a meaningful chance of taking all three points.

Everton Team News

Branthwaite completed the Bournemouth match after being managed carefully during his return from a hamstring injury. His availability gives Moyes the option of restoring an experienced central partnership with Tarkowski.

Hayden Hackney was available from the bench following a minor knock and could challenge Harrison Armstrong for a midfield place. Christian Nørgaard remains the main injury concern because of a muscle problem.

The attacking selection is less settled. Barry is the likely starting striker after scoring four times across all competitions, while Tyrique George, Brennan Johnson and Iliman Ndiaye are among the wide options. Ndiaye’s reported transfer situation creates uncertainty, so Johnson is the safer provisional choice in the projected team.

Everton could also complete further business before the transfer window closes. Reported negotiations involving Jack Grealish, Folarin Balogun and Ainsley Maitland-Niles should not be treated as completed transfers unless officially confirmed, while registration and immediate readiness would remain separate questions.

Manchester United Team News

Carrick could retain most of the team that defeated Ipswich. Kobbie Mainoo impressed on his first start of the season and appears well placed to continue alongside Youri Tielemans, particularly with Carlos Baleba unlikely to recover from his ankle problem in time.

Fernandes is expected to remain in the No. 10 role after his hat trick. Mbeumo and Rashford provide the width, while Cunha’s movement can pull Everton’s center backs away from their preferred positions. Benjamin Šeško offers Carrick a more traditional center-forward alternative.

Amad remains a doubt with a recurring problem. Manuel Ugarte is a long-term absentee following his ACL injury, while Matthijs de Ligt is not expected back from his back problem until later in September. Mason Mount has returned to full training but was not included against Ipswich, leaving his involvement uncertain.

Everton Projected Lineup

Everton are projected to use a 4-2-3-1 formation.
The selection remains provisional because of injuries and deadline-day activity.

• Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford
• Defenders: Merlin Röhl, James Tarkowski, Jarrad Branthwaite, Vitalii Mykolenko
• Midfielders: Harrison Armstrong, James Garner, Brennan Johnson, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Tyrique George
• Forward: Thierno Barry

Manchester United Projected Lineup

Manchester United are projected to continue in a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Carrick has a decision between continuity and introducing a more conventional striker.

• Goalkeeper: Senne Lammens
• Defenders: Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martínez, Luke Shaw
• Midfielders: Youri Tielemans, Kobbie Mainoo, Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford
• Forward: Matheus Cunha

Key Everton vs Manchester United Matchup Factors

Can Everton stop Bruno Fernandes from receiving between the lines?

Fernandes remains the player most capable of separating these teams. His hat trick against Ipswich illustrated both his finishing and his ability to arrive late around the penalty area.

Everton’s midfield must prevent him from turning into space between Armstrong, Garner and the center backs. If Fernandes receives facing forward, he can release Mbeumo and Rashford behind the fullbacks or combine with Cunha through the middle.

Moyes may ask one midfielder to remain close to Fernandes while the other protects against Cunha dropping deep. That approach could restrict United centrally, but it would also leave Everton with fewer players available to press Tielemans and Mainoo.

Can Manchester United contain Thierno Barry and Everton’s set pieces?

Barry gives Everton a direct route through United’s press. He can compete for longer passes, occupy both center backs and create second-ball opportunities for Dewsbury-Hall and the wide attackers.

His cup hat trick demonstrated his scoring potential, although the Bournemouth match underlined the importance of converting a greater share of his chances. Maguire and Martínez will need to manage his physical presence without allowing Everton to establish repeated pressure around the penalty area.

Set pieces could be equally important. Tarkowski’s equalizer against Bournemouth was another example of Everton’s ability to turn aerial pressure into a decisive moment. Tarkowski, Branthwaite and Barry give Moyes three major targets against a United defense that has not yet looked consistently secure.

Can Everton exploit the space behind United’s fullbacks?

Mbeumo and Rashford make United dangerous in wide areas, but their positioning can encourage Dalot and Shaw to advance aggressively. That may leave transition space for George and Johnson when Everton regain possession.

Everton are unlikely to dominate the ball for long periods. Their best attacking moments may instead come from quick passes into the channels, with Barry occupying the center backs and Dewsbury-Hall supporting from midfield.

United’s rest defense will therefore be important. Tielemans and Mainoo must protect the central spaces while allowing the fullbacks to support attacks without leaving Maguire and Martínez exposed to repeated counters.

Everton vs Manchester United Head-to-Head

The teams split their two Premier League meetings last season, with both matches ending 1–0.

Everton won the first encounter despite playing with 10 men from the 13th minute. Dewsbury-Hall scored the decisive goal, while Pickford helped Everton withstand sustained pressure.

United responded with a 1–0 victory in February. Šeško came off the bench to score in the second half after a transition involving Cunha and Mbeumo.

Those results underline the narrow margins in this matchup. Everton have already shown they can frustrate United without controlling possession, while United’s pace and depth can change the game quickly if Everton’s defensive structure begins to open.

What Could Move the Everton vs Manchester United Odds?

Everton’s deadline-day activity is the largest immediate variable. An official departure for Ndiaye would remove an important attacking option, while any confirmed arrivals would still need to be assessed for registration, fitness and tactical readiness.

Further updates on Hackney and Nørgaard could influence Everton’s midfield projection. Hackney’s passing would offer Moyes a different route through United’s pressure, while another absence would place greater responsibility on Armstrong and Garner.

For United, the availability of Mount and Amad could improve Carrick’s attacking options. Any unexpected progress in Baleba’s recovery would also affect the midfield balance, although he currently appears unlikely to feature.

The confirmed starting teams will be especially important. Cunha or Šeško at center forward would produce different attacking patterns for United, while Everton’s choice between Johnson, Ndiaye and other wide options would change their transition threat.

Important Information

Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), a CFTC-regulated exchange, which does business under the brand OG.com Prediction Markets (OG). Crypto.com | Derivatives North America uses a CFTC-regulated exchange that uses OG.com technology.

Trading on OG.com involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on OG.com is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk.